Publication Date:
2022-05-25
Description:
This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (2009): F04019, doi:10.1029/2008JF001191.
Description:
Hindcasting decadal-timescale bathymetric change in estuaries is prone to error due to limited data for initial conditions, boundary forcing, and calibration; computational limitations further hinder efforts. We developed and calibrated a tidal-timescale model to bathymetric change in Suisun Bay, California, over the 1867–1887 period. A general, multiple-timescale calibration ensured robustness over all timescales; two input reduction methods, the morphological hydrograph and the morphological acceleration factor, were applied at the decadal timescale. The model was calibrated to net bathymetric change in the entire basin; average error for bathymetric change over individual depth ranges was 37%. On a model cell-by-cell basis, performance for spatial amplitude correlation was poor over the majority of the domain, though spatial phase correlation was better, with 61% of the domain correctly indicated as erosional or depositional. Poor agreement was likely caused by the specification of initial bed composition, which was unknown during the 1867–1887 period. Cross-sectional bathymetric change between channels and flats, driven primarily by wind wave resuspension, was modeled with higher skill than longitudinal change, which is driven in part by gravitational circulation. The accelerated response of depth may have prevented gravitational circulation from being represented properly. As performance criteria became more stringent in a spatial sense, the error of the model increased. While these methods are useful for estimating basin-scale sedimentation changes, they may not be suitable for predicting specific locations of erosion or deposition. They do, however, provide a foundation for realistic estuarine geomorphic modeling applications.
Description:
This study was supported by the U.S. Geological
Survey’s Priority Ecosystems Science program, CALFED Bay/Delta
Program, and the University of California Center for Water Resources. Use
of ROMS and the CSTMS was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey,
with assistance from John Warner.
Keywords:
Estuarine geomorphology
;
Numerical modeling
;
Sediment transport
Repository Name:
Woods Hole Open Access Server
Type:
Article
Format:
application/pdf
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