ALBERT

Description: The Pan-Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern that was found in a previous study to have a significant impact on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in early winter seemed to reflect the nearly uncorrelated influence of a horseshoe SST anomaly in the North Atlantic and an SST anomaly in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. A lagged rotated maximum covariance analysis of a slightly longer dataset shows that the horseshoe SST anomaly influence is robust, but it deemphasizes the center of action southeast of Newfoundland, Canada. On the other hand, it suggests that the link between equatorial SST and the NAO was artificial and due both to ENSO teleconnections and the orthogonality constraint in the maximum covariance analysis.

Description: A lagged maximum covariance analysis (MCA) of monthly anomaly data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis shows significant relations between the large-scale atmospheric circulation in two seasons and prior North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, independent from the teleconnections associated with the ENSO phenomenon. Regression analysis based on the SST anomaly centers of action confirms these findings. In late summer, a hemispheric atmospheric signal that is primarily equivalent barotropic, except over the western subtropical Pacific, is significantly correlated with an SST anomaly mode up to at least 5 months earlier. Although the relation is most significant in the upper troposphere, significant temperature anomalies are found in the lower troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic, Europe, and Asia. The SST anomaly is largest in the Kuroshio Extension region and along the subtropical frontal zone, resembling the main mode of North Pacific SST anomaly variability in late winter and spring, and it is itself driven by the atmosphere. The predictability of the atmospheric signal, as estimated from cross-validated correlation, is highest when SST leads by 4 months because the SST anomaly pattern is more dominant in the spring than in the summer. In late fall and early winter, a signal resembling the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern is found to be correlated with a quadripolar SST anomaly during summer, up to 4 months earlier, with comparable statistical significance throughout the troposphere. The SST anomaly changes shape and propagates eastward, and by early winter it resembles the SST anomaly that is generated by the PNA pattern. It is argued that this results via heat flux forcing and meridional Ekman advection from an active coupling between the SST and the PNA pattern that takes place throughout the fall. Correspondingly, the predictability of the PNA-like signal is highest when SST leads by 2 months. In late summer, the maximum atmospheric perturbation at 250 mb reaches 35 m K−1 in the MCA and 20 m K−1 in the regressions. In early winter, the maximum atmospheric perturbation at 250 mb ranges between 70 m K−1 in the MCA and about 35 m K−1 in the regressions. This suggests that North Pacific SST anomalies have a substantial impact on the Northern Hemisphere climate. The back interaction of the atmospheric response onto the ocean is also discussed.

Description: The variability of the circulation in the North Atlantic and its link with atmospheric variability are investigated in a realistic hindcast simulation from 1953 to 2003. The interannual-to-decadal variability of the subpolar gyre circulation and the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is mostly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Both circulations intensified from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s and then decreased. The monthly variability of both circulations reflects the fast barotropic adjustment to NAO-related Ekman pumping anomalies, while the interannual-to-decadal variability is due to the baroclinic adjustment to Ekman pumping, buoyancy forcing, and dense water formation, consistent with previous studies. An original characteristic of the oceanic response to NAO is presented that relates to the spatial patterns of buoyancy and wind forcing over the North Atlantic. Anomalous Ekman pumping associated with a positive NAO phase first induces a decrease of the southern subpolar gyre strength and an intensification of the northern subpolar gyre. The latter is reinforced by buoyancy loss and dense water formation in the Irminger Sea, where the cyclonic circulation increases 1–2 yr after the positive NAO phase. Increased buoyancy loss also occurs in the Labrador Sea, but because of the early decrease of the southern subpolar gyre strength, the intensification of the cyclonic circulation is delayed. Hence the subpolar gyre and the MOC start increasing in the Irminger Sea, while in the Labrador Sea the circulation at depth leads its surface counterpart. In this simulation where the transport of dense water through the North Atlantic sills is underestimated, the MOC variability is well represented by a simple integrator of convection in the Irminger Sea, which fits better than a direct integration of NAO forcing.

Description: The transient atmospheric response to interactive SST anomalies in the midlatitudes is investigated using a three-layer QG model coupled in perpetual winter conditions to a slab oceanic mixed layer in the North Atlantic. The SST anomalies are diagnosed from a coupled run and prescribed as initial conditions, but are free to evolve. The initial evolution of the atmospheric response is similar to that obtained with a prescribed SST anomaly, starting as a quasi-linear baroclinic and then quickly evolving into a growing equivalent barotropic one. Because of the heat flux damping, the SST anomaly amplitude slowly decreases, albeit with little change in pattern. Correspondingly, the atmospheric response only increases until it reaches a maximum amplitude after about 1–3.5 months, depending on the SST anomaly considered. The response is similar to that at equilibrium in the fixed SST case, but it is 1.5–2 times smaller, and then slowly decays away.

Description: The dominant air–sea feedbacks that are at play in the tropical Atlantic are revisited, using the 1958–2002 NCEP reanalysis. To separate between different modes of variability and distinguish between cause and effect, a lagged rotated maximum covariance analysis (MCA) of monthly sea surface temperature (SST), wind, and surface heat flux anomalies is performed. The dominant mode is the ENSO-like zonal equatorial SST mode, which has its maximum amplitude in boreal summer and is a strongly coupled ocean–atmosphere mode sustained by a positive feedback between wind and SST. The turbulent heat flux feedback is negative, except west of 25°W where it is positive, but countered by a negative radiative feedback associated with the meridional displacement of the ITCZ. As the maximum covariance patterns change little between lead and lag conditions, the in-phase covariability between SST and the atmosphere can be used to infer the atmospheric response to the SST anomaly. The second climate mode involves an SST anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic, which is primarily generated by the surface heat flux and, in boreal winter, wind changes off the coast of Africa. After it has been generated, the SST anomaly is sustained in the deep Tropics by the positive wind–evaporation–SST feedback linked to the wind response to the SST. However, north of about 10°N where the SST anomaly is largest, the wind response is weak and the heat flux feedback is negative, thus damping the SST anomaly. As the in-phase maximum covariance patterns primarily reflect the atmospheric forcing of the SST, simultaneous correlations cannot be used to describe the atmospheric response to the SST anomaly, except in the deep Tropics. Using instead the maximum covariance patterns when SST leads the atmosphere reconciles the results of recent atmospheric general circulation model experiments with the observations.

Description: To study the transient atmospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies, a three-layer quasigeostrophic (QG) model coupled to a slab oceanic mixed layer in the North Atlantic is used. As diagnosed from a coupled run in perpetual winter conditions, the first two modes of SST variability are linked to the model North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and eastern Atlantic pattern (EAP), respectively, the dominant atmospheric modes in the Atlantic sector. The two SST anomaly patterns are then prescribed as fixed anomalous boundary conditions for the model atmosphere, and its transient responses are established from a large ensemble of simulations. In both cases, the tendency of the air–sea heat fluxes to damp the SST anomalies results in an anomalous diabatic heating of the atmosphere that, in turn, forces a baroclinic response, as predicted by linear theory. This initial response rapidly modifies the transient eddy activity and thus the convergence of eddy momentum and heat fluxes. The latter transforms the baroclinic response into a growing barotropic one that resembles the atmospheric mode that had created the SST anomaly in the coupled run and is thus associated with a positive feedback. The total adjustment time is as long as 3–4 months for the NAO-like response and 1–2 months for the EAP-like one. The positive feedback, in both cases, is dependent on the polarity of the SST anomaly, but is stronger in the NAO case, thereby contributing to its predominance at low frequency in the coupled system. However, the feedback is too weak to lead to an instability of the atmospheric modes and primarily results in an increase of their amplitude and persistence and a weakening of the heat flux damping of the SST anomaly.

Description: The link between the interannual to interdecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the atmospheric forcing is investigated using 200 yr of a control simulation of the Bergen Climate Model, where the mean circulation cell is rather realistic, as is also the location of deep convection in the northern North Atlantic. The AMOC variability has a slightly red frequency spectrum and is primarily forced by the atmosphere. The maximum value of the AMOC is mostly sensitive to the deep convection in the Irminger Sea, which it lags by about 5 yr. The latter is mostly forced by a succession of atmospheric patterns that induce anomalous northerly winds over the area. The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on deep convection in the Labrador and Greenland Seas is represented realistically, but its influence on the AMOC is limited to the interannual time scale and is primarily associated with wind forcing. The tropical Pacific shows a strong variability in the model, with too strong an influence on the North Atlantic. However, its influence on the tropical Atlantic is realistic. Based on lagged correlations and the release of fictitious Lagrangian drifters, the tropical Pacific seems to influence the AMOC with a time lag of about 40 yr. The mechanism is as follows: El Niño events induce positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the tropical Atlantic that are advected northward, circulate in the subtropical gyre, and then subduct. In the ocean interior, part of the salinity anomaly is advected along the North Atlantic current, eventually reaching the Irminger and Labrador Seas after about 35 yr where they destabilize the water column and favor deep convection.