ALBERT

Description: A clear physical understanding of atmospheric particle nucleation mechanisms is critical in assessing the influences of aerosols on climate and climate variability. Currently, several mechanisms have been proposed and are being employed to interpret field observations of nucleation events. Roughly speaking, the two most likely candidates are neutral cluster nucleation (NCN) and ion-mediated nucleation (IMN). Detailed nucleation event data has been obtained in boreal forests. In one set of analyses of these measurements, NCN was suggested as the dominant formation mode, while in another, it was IMN. Information on the electrical charge distribution carried by the nucleating clusters is one key for identifying the relative contributions of neutral and ion-mediated processes under various conditions. Fortunately, ground-breaking measurements of the charged states or fractions of ambient nanometer-sized particles soon after undergoing nucleation are now available to help resolve the main pathways. In the present study, the size-dependent "apparent" formation rates and fractions of charged and neutral particles in a boreal forest setting are simulated with a detailed kinetic model. We show that the predicted "apparent" formation rates of charged and neutral particles at 2 nm for eight representative case study days agree well with the corresponding values based on observations. In the simulations, the "apparent" contribution of ion-based nucleation increases by up to ~one order of magnitude as the size of "sampled" particles is decreased from 2 nm to ~1.5 nm. These results suggest that most of the neutral particles sampled in the field at sizes around 2 nm are in reality initially formed on ionic cores that are neutralized before the particles grow to this size. Thus, although the apparent rate of formation of neutral 2-nm particles might seem to be dominated by a neutral clustering process, in fact those particles may be largely the result of an ion-induced nucleation mechanism. This point is clarified when the formation rates of smaller particles (e.g., ~1.5 nm) are explicitly analyzed (noting that measurements at these smaller sizes are not yet available), indicating that IMN dominates NCN processes under typical circumstances in the boreal forest cases investigated.

Description: New particle formation contributes significantly to the number concentration of condensation nuclei (CN) as well as cloud CN (CCN), a key factor determining aerosol indirect radiative forcing of the climate system. Using a physics-based nucleation mechanism that is consistent with a range of field observations of aerosol formation, it is shown that projected increases in global temperatures could significantly inhibit new particle, and CCN, formation rates worldwide. An analysis of CN concentrations observed at four NOAA ESRL/GMD baseline stations since the 1970s and two other sites since 1990s reveals long-term decreasing trends that are consistent in sign with, but are larger in magnitude than, the predicted temperature effects. The possible reasons for larger observed long-term CN reductions at remote sites are discussed. The combined effects of rising temperatures on aerosol nucleation rates and other chemical and microphysical processes may imply substantial decreases in future tropospheric particle abundances associated with global warming, delineating a potentially significant feedback mechanism that increases Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions. Further research is needed to quantify the magnitude of such a feedback process.

Description: New particle formation contributes significantly to the number concentration of condensation nuclei (CN) as well as cloud CN (CCN), a key factor determining aerosol indirect radiative forcing of the climate system. Using a physics-based nucleation mechanism that is consistent with a range of field observations of aerosol formation, it is shown that projected increases in global temperatures could significantly inhibit new particle, and CCN, formation rates worldwide. An analysis of CN concentrations observed at four NOAA ESRL/GMD baseline stations since the 1970s and two other sites since 1990s reveals long-term decreasing trends consistent with these predictions. The analysis also suggests, owing to larger observed CN reductions at remote sites than can be explained by the basic nucleation mechanism, that dimethylsulphide (DMS) emissions may be decreasing worldwide with increasing global temperatures, implying a positive DMS-based cloud feedback forcing of the climate ("CLAW"). The combined effects of rising temperatures on aerosol nucleation rates, and possibly on DMS emissions, may imply substantial decreases in future tropospheric particle abundances associated with global warming, delineating a potentially significant feedback mechanism that increases Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions. Further research is needed to quantify the magnitude of such a feedback process.