ALBERT

Description: During large El Niño events the westerly wind response to the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) shifts southward during boreal winter and early spring, reaching latitudes of 5°–7°S. The resulting meridional asymmetry, along with a related seasonal weakening of wind anomalies on the equator are key elements in the termination of strong El Niño events. Using an intermediate complexity atmosphere model it is demonstrated that these features result from a weakening of the climatological wind speeds south of the equator toward the end of the calendar year. The reduced climatological wind speeds, which are associated with the seasonal intensification of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), lead to anomalous boundary layer Ekman pumping and a reduced surface momentum damping of the combined boundary layer/lower-troposphere surface wind response to El Niño. This allows the associated zonal wind anomalies to shift south of the equator. Furthermore, using a linear shallow-water ocean model it is demonstrated that this southward wind shift plays a prominent role in changing zonal mean equatorial heat content and is solely responsible for establishing the meridional asymmetry of thermocline depth in the turnaround (recharge/discharge) phase of ENSO. This result calls into question the sole role of oceanic Rossby waves in the phase synchronized termination of El Niño events and suggests that the development of a realistic climatological SPCZ in December–February/March–May (DJF/MAM) is one of the key factors in the seasonal termination of strong El Niño events.

Description: Recent studies indicate that the influence of midlatitude SST fronts extends through the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) into the free atmosphere, with implications for climate variability. To better understand the mechanisms of this ocean-to-atmosphere influence, SST-induced MABL convergence is explored here with the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model in an idealized, dry, two-dimensional configuration, for winds crossing from cold to warm SST and from warm to cold SST. For strong cross-front winds, O(10 m s−1), changes in the turbulent mixing and MABL depth across the SST front lead to MABL depth-integrated convergence in the cold-to-warm case and depth-integrated divergence in the warm-to-cold case. The turbulent stress divergence term changes over a shorter length scale than the pressure gradient and Coriolis terms, such that the MABL response directly above the SST front is governed by nonrotating, internal boundary layer–like physics, which are consistent with the vertical mixing mechanism. An important consequence is that the increment in the cross-front surface stress diagnoses the vertical motion at the top of the MABL. These physics are at variance with some previously proposed SST frontal MABL models in which pressure adjustments determine the MABL convergence. The SST-induced MABL convergence results in vertical motion that excites a stationary internal gravity wave in the free atmosphere, analogous to a mountain wave. For a 15 m s−1 cross-front wind, the gravity wave forced by an SST increase of 3°C over 200 km is comparable to that forced by an 80-m change in topography.

Description: A systematic study is presented of decadal climate variability in the North Pacific. In particular, the hypothesis is addressed that oceanic Rossby basin modes are responsible for enhanced energy at decadal and bidecadal time scales. To this end, a series of statistical analyses are performed on a 500-yr control integration of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3). In particular, a principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis is performed to identify modal behavior in the subsurface pressure field. It is found that the dominant energy of sea surface temperature (SST) variability at 25 yr (the model equivalent of the Pacific decadal oscillation) cannot be explained by the resonant excitation of an oceanic basin mode. However, significant energy in the subsurface pressure field at time scales of 17 and 10 yr appears to be related to internal ocean oscillations. However, these oscillations lack the characteristics of the classical basin modes, and must either be deformed beyond recognition by the background circulation and inhomogeneous stratification or have another dynamical origin altogether. The 17-yr oscillation projects onto the Pacific decadal oscillation and, if present in the real ocean, has the potential to enhance the predictability of low-frequency climate variability in the North Pacific.

Description: A simple model of ENSO is developed to examine the effects of the seasonally varying background state of the equatorial Pacific on the seasonal synchronization of ENSO event peaks. The model is based on the stochastically forced recharge oscillator, extended to include periodic variations of the two main model parameters, which represent ENSO’s growth rate and angular frequency. Idealized experiments show that the seasonal cycle of the growth rate parameter sets the seasonal cycle of ENSO variance; the inclusion of the time dependence of the angular frequency parameter has a negligible effect. Event peaks occur toward the end of the season with the most unstable growth rate. Realistic values of the parameters are estimated from a linearized upper-ocean heat budget with output from a high-resolution general circulation model hindcast. Analysis of the hindcast output suggests that the damping by the mean flow field dominates the seasonal cycle of ENSO’s growth rate and, thereby, seasonal ENSO variance. The combination of advective, Ekman pumping, and thermocline feedbacks plays a secondary role and acts to enhance the seasonal cycle of the ENSO growth rate.

Description: The two leading modes of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP), as well as their connections to tropical variability, are explored in the 24 coupled climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to evaluate North Pacific decadal variability (NPDV) in the past [twentieth century; climate of the twentieth century (20C3M) scenario] and future [twenty-first century; Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario] climate. Results indicate that the two dominant modes of North Pacific oceanic variability, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), do not exhibit significant changes in their spatial and temporal characteristics under greenhouse warming. However, the ability of the models to capture the dynamics associated with the leading North Pacific oceanic modes, including their link to the corresponding atmospheric forcing patterns and to tropical variability, is questionable. The temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth-century climate, most visibly for the second mode, which has significantly more low-frequency power and higher variance than in observations. The dynamical coupling between the North Pacific Ocean and atmosphere modes evident in the observations is very strong in the models for the first atmosphere–ocean coupled mode, which represents covariability of the PDO pattern with the Aleutian low (AL). However, the link for the second atmosphere–ocean coupled mode, describing covariability of an NPGO-like SST pattern with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), is not as clearly reproduced, with some models showing no relationship between the two. Exploring the tropical Pacific–North Pacific teleconnections reveals more issues with the models. In contrast with observations, the atmospheric teleconnection excited by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the models does not project strongly on the AL–PDO coupled mode because of the displacement of the center of action of the AL in most models. Moreover, most models fail to show the observational connection between El Niño Modoki–central Pacific warming and NPO variability in the North Pacific. In fact, the atmospheric teleconnections associated with El Niño Modoki in some models have a significant projection on, and excite the AL–PDO coupled mode instead. Because of the known links between tropical Pacific variability and NPDV, these analyses demonstrate that focus on the North Pacific variability of climate models in isolation from tropical dynamics is likely to lead to an incomplete view, and inadequate prediction, of NPDV.

Description: One of the key characteristics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is its synchronization to the annual cycle, which manifests in the tendency of ENSO events to peak during boreal winter. Current theory offers two possible mechanisms to account the for ENSO synchronization: frequency locking of ENSO to periodic forcing by the annual cycle, or the effect of the seasonally varying background state of the equatorial Pacific on ENSO’s coupled stability. Using a parametric recharge oscillator (PRO) model of ENSO, the authors test which of these scenarios provides a better explanation of the observed ENSO synchronization. Analytical solutions of the PRO model show that the annual modulation of the growth rate parameter results directly in ENSO’s seasonal variance, amplitude modulation, and 2:1 phase synchronization to the annual cycle. The solutions are shown to be applicable to the long-term behavior of the damped model excited by stochastic noise, which produces synchronization characteristics that agree with the observations and can account for the variety of ENSO synchronization behavior in state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models. The model also predicts spectral peaks at “combination tones” between ENSO and the annual cycle that exist in the observations and many coupled models. In contrast, the nonlinear frequency entrainment scenario predicts the existence of a spectral peak at the biennial frequency corresponding to the observed 2:1 phase synchronization. Such a peak does not exist in the observed ENSO spectrum. Hence, it can be concluded that the seasonal modulation of the coupled stability is responsible for the synchronization of ENSO events to the annual cycle.

Description: Being the extension of a wind-driven western boundary current, the Kuroshio Extension (KE) has long been recognized as a turbulent current system rich in large-amplitude meanders and energetic pinched-off eddies. An important feature emerging from recent satellite altimeter measurements and eddy-resolving ocean model simulations is that the KE system exhibits well-defined decadal modulations between a stable and an unstable dynamic state. Here the authors show that the decadally modulating KE dynamic state can be effectively defined by the sea surface height (SSH) anomalies in the 31°–36°N, 140°–165°E region. By utilizing the SSH-based KE index from 1977 to 2012, they demonstrate that the time-varying KE dynamic state can be predicted at lead times of up to ~6 yr. This long-term predictability rests on two dynamic processes: 1) the oceanic adjustment is via baroclinic Rossby waves that carry interior wind-forced anomalies westward into the KE region and 2) the low-frequency KE variability influences the extratropical storm tracks and surface wind stress curl field across the North Pacific basin. By shifting poleward (equatorward) the storm tracks and the large-scale wind stress curl pattern during its stable (unstable) dynamic state, the KE variability induces a delayed negative feedback that can enhance the predictable SSH variance on the decadal time scales.

Description: Upper ocean heat content (OHC) is at the heart of natural climate variability on interannual-to-decadal time scales, providing climate memory and the source of decadal prediction skill. In the midlatitude North Pacific Ocean, OHC signals are often found to propagate eastward as opposed to the frequently observed westward propagation of sea surface height, another variable that represents the ocean subsurface state. This dichotomy is investigated using a 150-yr coupled GCM integration. Simulated OHC signals are distinguished in terms of two processes that can support eastward propagation: higher baroclinic Rossby wave (RW) modes that are associated with density perturbation, and spiciness anomalies due to density-compensated temperature and salinity anomalies. The analysis herein suggests a unique role of the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) region as an origin of the spiciness and higher mode RW signals. Wind-forced, westward-propagating equivalent barotropic RWs cause meridional shifts of the subarctic front in the KOE region. The associated anomalous circulation crosses mean temperature and salinity gradients and thereby generates spiciness anomalies. These anomalies are advected eastward by the mean currents, while the associated surface temperature anomalies are damped by air–sea heat exchange. The accompanying surface buoyancy flux generates higher baroclinic, eastward-propagating RWs. The results suggest that the large OHC variability in the western boundary currents and their extensions is associated with the spiciness gradients and axial variability of oceanic fronts.