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  • 2010-2014  (2)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2013-12-01
    Description: Thousands of aircraft observations of upper-ocean thermal structures have been obtained during hurricane and typhoon research field experiments in recent decades. The results from these experiments suggest a strong correlation between upper-ocean thermal variability and tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change. In response to these results, during the Office of the Federal Coordinator of Meteorology (OFCM) 2011 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC), the Working Group for Hurricane and Winter Storms Operations and Research (WG/HWSOR) approved a 3-yr project to demonstrate the usefulness of airborne expendable bathythermographs (AXBTs) in an operational setting. The goal of this project was to initialize and validate coupled TC forecast models and was extended to improve input to statistical intensity forecast models. During the first season of the demonstration project, 109 AXBTs were deployed between 28 July and 28 August 2011. Successes included AXBT deployment from WC-130J aircraft during operational reconnaissance missions tasked by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), real-time onboard and postflight data processing, real-time data transmission to U.S. Navy and NOAA hurricane numerical prediction centers, and near-real-time assimilation of upper-ocean temperature observations into the Naval Research Laboratory Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System-Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) forecast model. Initial results showed 1) increased model accuracy in upper-ocean temperatures, 2) minor improvements in TC track forecasts, and 3) minor improvements in TC intensity forecasts in both coupled dynamical and statistical models [COAMPS-TC and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), respectively].
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: Radial profiles of infrared brightness temperature for 2405 different satellite observations from 14 western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) from the 2012 season were analyzed and compared to intensity and changes in intensity. Four critical points along the inner core of each infrared (IR) brightness temperature (BT) profile were identified: coldest cloud top (CCT), first overshooting top (FOT), and lower (L45) and upper (U45) extent of the inner eyewall. Radial movement of the mean CCT point outward with increasing TC intensity, combined with subsequent warming of the mean L45 point with intensity, highlighted structure changes that are consistent with eye and eyewall development. When stratified by latitude and vertical wind shear, the CCT point moved radially outward for all cases, notably at higher intensities for lower-latitude TCs and at lower intensities for higher-latitude TCs. The majority of the warming of the L45 point with increasing intensity occurred for low-latitude and low-shear cases. Slopes of IR BT between the four critical points were statistically significantly negatively correlated with intensity, indicating that stronger (weaker) TCs had more (less) negative slopes of IR BT and more (less) vertical eyewall profiles. Furthermore, except in high-shear cases, the most negative correlations were found in the inner eyewall, consistent with results from recent studies based on radar reconnaissance data. Finally, 12-h changes in slope were found to lead 12-h changes in intensity most often at higher latitudes, providing evidence that changes in the secondary TC circulation may lead changes in the primary TC circulation for both strengthening and weakening TCs.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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