ALBERT

Description: The ratio of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere to the CO2 flux into the atmosphere due to human activity, the airborne fraction AF, is central to predict changes in earth's surface temperature due to greenhouse gas induced warming. This ratio has remained remarkably constant in the past five decades, but recent studies have reported an apparent increasing trend and interpreted it as an indication for a decrease in the efficiency of the combined sinks by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We investigate here whether this interpretation is correct by analyzing the processes that control long-term trends and decadal-scale variations in the AF. To this end, we use simplified linear models for describing the time evolution of an atmospheric CO2 perturbation. We find firstly that the spin-up time of the system for the AF to converge to a constant value is on the order of 200–300 years and differs depending on whether exponentially increasing fossil fuel emissions only or the sum of fossil fuel and land use emissions are used. We find secondly that the primary control on the decadal time-scale variations of the AF is variations in the relative growth rate of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Changes in sink efficiencies tend to leave a smaller imprint. Therefore, before interpreting trends in the AF as an indication of weakening carbon sink efficiency, it is necessary to account for trends and variations in AF stemming from anthropogenic emissions and other extrinsic forcing events, such as volcanic eruptions. Using atmospheric CO2 data and emission estimates for the period 1959 through 2006, and our simple predictive models for the AF, we find that likely omissions in the reported emissions from land use change and extrinsic forcing events are sufficient to explain the observed long-term trend in AF. Therefore, claims for a decreasing long-term trend in the carbon sink efficiency over the last few decades are currently not supported by atmospheric CO2 data and anthropogenic emissions estimates.

Description: The 14C-free fossil carbon added to atmospheric CO2 by combustion dilutes the atmospheric 14C/C ratio (Δ14C), potentially providing a means to verify fossil CO2 emissions calculated using economic inventories. However, sources of 14C from nuclear power generation and spent fuel reprocessing can counteract this dilution and may bias 14C/C-based estimates of fossil fuel-derived CO2 if these nuclear influences are not correctly accounted for. Previous studies have examined nuclear influences on local scales, but the potential for continental-scale influences on Δ14C has not yet been explored. We estimate annual 14C emissions from each nuclear site in the world and conduct an Eulerian transport modeling study to investigate the continental-scale, steady-state gradients of Δ14C caused by nuclear activities and fossil fuel combustion. Over large regions of Europe, North America and East Asia, nuclear enrichment may offset at least 20% of the fossil fuel dilution in Δ14C, corresponding to potential biases of more than −0.25 ppm in the CO2 attributed to fossil fuel emissions, larger than the bias from plant and soil respiration in some areas. Model grid cells including high 14C-release reactors or fuel reprocessing sites showed much larger nuclear enrichment, despite the coarse model resolution of 1.8°×1.8°. The recent growth of nuclear 14C emissions increased the potential nuclear bias over 1985–2005, suggesting that changing nuclear activities may complicate the use of Δ14C observations to identify trends in fossil fuel emissions. The magnitude of the potential nuclear bias is largely independent of the choice of reference station in the context of continental-scale Eulerian transport and inversion studies, but could potentially be reduced by an appropriate choice of reference station in the context of local-scale assessments.

Description: Due to seasonal upwelling, the upper ocean waters of the California Current System (CCS) have a naturally low pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), making this region particularly prone to the effects of ocean acidification. Here, we use the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) to conduct preindustrial and transient (1995–2050) simulations of ocean biogeochemistry in the CCS. The transient simulations were forced with increasing atmospheric pCO2 as projected by the NCAR CSM 1.4 model run under either the IPCC SRES A2 or B1 scenarios. Using ROMS, we investigate the timing of transition decades during which pH and Ωarag depart from their modeled preindustrial (1750) and present-day (2011) variability envelopes. We report these transition decades by noting the midpoint of the ten-year transition periods. In addition, we also analyze the timing of near permanent aragonite undersaturation in the upper 100 m of the water column. Our results show that an interplay of physical and biogeochemical processes create large seasonal variability in pH (∼ 0.14) and Ωarag (∼ 0.2). Despite this large variability, we find that present-day pH and Ωarag have already moved out of their preindustrial variability envelopes due to the rapidly increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2. The simulations following the A2 emissions scenario suggest that nearshore surface pH of the northern and central CCS will move out of their present-day variability envelopes by 2045 and 2037, respectively. However, surface Ωarag of the northern and central CCS subregions are projected to depart from their present-day variability envelopes sooner, by 2030 and 2035, respectively. By 2025, the aragonite saturation horizon of the central CCS is projected to shoal into the upper 75 m for the duration of the annual cycle, causing near permanent undersaturation in subsurface waters. Overall, our study shows that the CCS joins the Arctic and Southern Oceans as one of only a few known ocean regions presently approaching this dual threshold of undersaturation with respect to aragonite and a departure from its variability envelope. In these regions, organisms may be forced to rapidly adjust to conditions that are both inherently chemically challenging and also substantially different from prior conditions.

Description: Using results from four coupled global carbon cycle-climate models combined with in situ observations, we estimate the combined effects of future global warming and ocean acidification on potential habitats for tropical/subtropical and temperate coral communities in the seas around Japan. The suitability of the coral habitats are identified primarily on the basis of the currently observed ranges for temperature and saturation states Ω with regard to aragonite (Ωarag). We find that under the "business as usual" SRES A2 scenario, coral habitats will expand northward by several hundred kilometers by the end of this century. At the same time, coral habitats are projected to become sandwiched between the tropical regions, where the frequency of coral bleaching will increase, and the temperate-to-subpolar latitudes, where Ωarag will become too low to support sufficiently high calcification rates. As a result, the area of coral habitats around Japan that is suitable to tropical-subtropical communities will be reduced by half by the 2020s to 2030s, and is projected to disappear by the 2030s to 2040s. The suitable habitats for the temperate coral communities are also becoming smaller, although at a less pronounced rate due to their higher tolerance for low Ωarag.

Description: The land and ocean absorb on average over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) and four Ocean Biogeochemical General Circulation Models (OBGCMs) to quantify the global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 – driven trends in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990–2009, attribute these trends to underlying processes, and quantify the uncertainty and level of model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; Land Use and Land Cover Changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990–2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of −2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1 with a small significant trend of −0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990–2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of –2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr–1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small trend of −0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP) whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2 – primarily as a consequence of wide-spread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (−0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counteract the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, and on the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.

Description: The Atlantic Ocean is one of the most important sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but this sink is known to vary substantially in time. Here we use surface ocean CO2 observations to estimate this sink and the temporal variability from 1998 to 2007 in the Atlantic Ocean. We benefit from (i) a continuous improvement of the observations, i.e., the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) v1.5 database and (ii) a newly developed technique to interpolate the observations in space and time. In particular, we use a 2 step neural network approach to reconstruct basin-wide monthly maps of the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) at a resolution of 1° × 1°. From those, we compute the air–sea CO2 flux maps using a standard gas exchange parameterization and high-resolution wind speeds. The neural networks fit the observed pCO2 data with a root mean square error (RMSE) of about 10 μatm and with almost no bias. A check against independent time series data reveals a larger RMSE of about 17 μatm. We estimate a decadal mean uptake flux of –0.45 ± 0.15 Pg C yr–1 for the Atlantic between 44° S and 79° N, representing the sum of a strong uptake north of 18° N (–0.39 ± 0.10 Pg C yr–1), outgassing in the tropics (18° S–18° N, 0.11 ± 0.07 Pg C yr–1), and uptake in the subtropical/temperate South Atlantic south of 18° S (–0.16 ± 0.06 Pg C yr–1), consistent with recent studies. We find the strongest seasonal variability of the CO2 flux in the temperature driven subtropical North Atlantic, with uptake in winter and outgassing in summer. The seasonal cycle is antiphased in the subpolar latitudes relative to the subtropics largely as a result of the biologically driven winter-to-summer drawdown of CO2. Over the analysis period (1998 to 2007) sea surface pCO2 increased faster than that of the atmosphere in large areas poleward of 40° N, but many other parts of the North Atlantic increased more slowly, resulting in a barely changing Atlantic carbon sink north of the equator (–0.007 Pg C yr–1 decade–1). Surface ocean pCO2 was also increasing less than that of the atmosphere over most of the Atlantic south of the equator, leading to a substantial trend toward a stronger CO2 sink for the entire South Atlantic (–0.14 Pg C yr–1 decade–1). The Atlantic carbon sink varies relatively little on inter-annual time-scales (±0.04 Pg C yr–1; 1σ).

Description: The Southern Ocean (44° S–75° S) plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle, yet remains one of the most poorly sampled ocean regions. Different approaches have been used to estimate sea-air CO2 fluxes in this region: synthesis of surface ocean observations, ocean biogeochemical models, and atmospheric and ocean inversions. As part of the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, we combine these different approaches to quantify and assess the magnitude and variability in Southern Ocean sea-air CO2 fluxes between 1990–2009. Using all models and inversions (26), the integrated median annual sea-air CO2 flux of −0.42 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1 for the 44° S–75° S region is consistent with the −0.27 ± 0.13 Pg C yr−1 calculated using surface observations. The circumpolar region south of 58° S has a small net annual flux (model and inversion median: −0.04 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1 and observations: +0.04 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1), with most of the net annual flux located in the 44° S to 58° S circumpolar band (model and inversion median: −0.36 ± 0.09 Pg C yr−1 and observations: −0.35 ± 0.09 Pg C yr−1). Seasonally, in the 44° S–58° S region, the median of 5 ocean biogeochemical models captures the observed sea-air CO2 flux seasonal cycle, while the median of 11 atmospheric inversions shows little seasonal change in the net flux. South of 58° S, neither atmospheric inversions nor ocean biogeochemical models reproduce the phase and amplitude of the observed seasonal sea-air CO2 flux, particularly in the Austral Winter. Importantly, no individual atmospheric inversion or ocean biogeochemical model is capable of reproducing both the observed annual mean uptake and the observed seasonal cycle. This raises concerns about projecting future changes in Southern Ocean CO2 fluxes. The median interannual variability from atmospheric inversions and ocean biogeochemical models is substantial in the Southern Ocean; up to 25% of the annual mean flux with 25% of this inter-annual variability attributed to the region south of 58° S. Trends in the net CO2 flux from the inversions and models are not statistically different from the expected increase of –0.05 Pg C yr−1 decade−1 due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, resolving long term trends is difficult due to the large interannual variability and short time frame (1990–2009) of this study.

Description: The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known on how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. We implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production, which differ primarily at low oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12% in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 Tg N yr−1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs), i.e., in the Eastern Tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production associated primarily with denitrification. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around −0.009 W m−2 K−1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assesment for a compensation between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next generation of Earth System Models.