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  • 1
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    Global and Regional Climate Response to Late Twentieth-Century Warming over the Indian Ocean (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2010-04-01
    Description: The global and regional climate response to a warming of the Indian Ocean is examined in an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model experiments. The most marked changes occur over the Indian Ocean, where the increase in tropical SST is found to drive enhanced convection throughout the troposphere. In the extratropics, the warming Indian Ocean is found to induce a significant trend toward the positive phase of the northern annular mode and also to enhance the Southern Hemisphere storm track over Indian Ocean longitudes as a result of stronger meridional temperature gradients. Convective outflow in the upper levels over the warming Indian Ocean leads to a trend in subsidence over the Indian and Asian monsoon regions extending southeastward to Indonesia, the eastern Pacific, and northern Australia. Regional changes in Australia reveal that this anomalous zone of subsidence induces a drying trend in the northern regions of the continent. The long-term rainfall trend is exacerbated over northeastern Australia by the anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which leads to an offshore trend in near-surface winds. The confluence of these two factors leads to a drying signal over northeastern Australia, which is detectable during austral autumn. The rapid, late twentieth-century warming of the Indian Ocean may have contributed to a component of the observed drying trend over northeastern Australia in this season via modifications to the vertical structure of the tropical wind field.
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  • 2
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    Genesis of Indian Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature Anomalies: A Heat Budget Analysis (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2010-10-15
    Description: The genesis of mixed layer temperature anomalies across the Indian Ocean are analyzed in terms of the underlying heat budget components. Observational data, for which a seasonal budget can be computed, and a climate model output, which provides improved spatial and temporal coverage for longer time scales, are examined. The seasonal climatology of the model heat budget is broadly consistent with the observational reconstruction, thus providing certain confidence in extending the model analysis to interannual time scales. To identify the dominant heat budget components, covariance analysis is applied based on the heat budget equation. In addition, the role of the heat budget terms on the generation and decay of temperature anomalies is revealed via a novel temperature variance budget approach. The seasonal evolution of the mixed layer temperature is found to be largely controlled by air–sea heat fluxes, except in the tropics where advection and entrainment are important. A distinct shift in the importance and role of certain heat budget components is shown to be apparent in moving from seasonal to interannual time scales. On these longer time scales, advection gains importance in generating and sustaining anomalies over extensive regions, including the trade wind and midlatitude wind regimes. On the other hand, air–sea heat fluxes tend to drive the evolution of thermal anomalies over subtropical regions including off northwestern Australia. In the tropics, however, they limit the growth of anomalies. Entrainment plays a role in the generation and maintenance of interannual anomalies over localized regions, particularly off Sumatra and over the Seychelles–Chagos Thermocline Ridge. It is further shown that the spatial distribution of the role and importance of these terms is related to oceanographic features of the Indian Ocean. Mixed layer depth effects and the influence of model biases are discussed.
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  • 3
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    The Impact of Wind Stress Feedback on the Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (2011)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2011-04-01
    Description: Recent results based on models using prescribed surface wind stress forcing have suggested that the net freshwater transport Σ by the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) into the Atlantic basin is a good indicator of the multiple-equilibria regime. By means of a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, this study shows that this scalar Σ cannot capture the connection between the properties of the steady state and the impact of the wind stress feedback on the evolution of perturbations. This implies that, when interpreting the observed value of Σ, the position of the present-day climate is systematically biased toward the multiple-equilibria regime. The results show, however, that the stabilizing influence of the wind stress feedback on the MOC is restricted to a narrow window of freshwater fluxes, located in the vicinity of the state characterized by a zero freshwater flux divergence over the Atlantic basin. If the position of the present-day climate is farther away from this state, then wind stress feedbacks are unable to exert a persistent effect on the modern MOC. This is because the stabilizing influence of the shallow reverse cell situated south of the equator during the off state rapidly dominates over the destabilizing influence of the wind stress feedback when the freshwater forcing gets stronger. Under glacial climate conditions by contrast, a weaker sensitivity with an opposite effect is found. This is ultimately due to the relatively large sea ice extent of the glacial climate, which implies that, during the off state, the horizontal redistribution of fresh waters by the subpolar gyre does not favor the development of a thermally direct MOC as opposed to the modern case.
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  • 4
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    Australian Monsoon Variability Driven by a Gill–Matsuno-Type Response to Central West Pacific Warming (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2010-09-15
    Description: The objective of this study is to investigate the mechanisms that cause the anomalous intensification of tropical Australian rainfall at the height of the monsoon during El Niño Modoki events. In such events, northwestern Australia tends to be wetter in January and February when the SST warming is displaced to the central west Pacific, the opposite response to that associated with a traditional El Niño. In addition, during the bounding months, that is, December and March, there is below-average rainfall induced by an anomalous Walker circulation. This behavior tends to narrow and intensify the annual rainfall cycle over northwestern Australia relative to the climatology, causing a delayed monsoonal onset and an earlier retreat over the region. Observational datasets and numerical experiments with a general circulation model are used to examine the atmospheric response to the central west Pacific SST warming. It is shown here that the increase of precipitation, particularly in February, is phased locked to the seasonal cycle when the intertropical convergence zone is displaced southward and the South Pacific convergence zone is strengthened. An interaction between the interannual SST variability associated with El Niño Modoki events and the evolution of the seasonal cycle intensifies deep convection in the central west Pacific, driving a Gill–Matsuno-type response to the diabatic heating. The westward-propagating disturbance associated with the Gill–Matsuno mechanism generates an anomalous cyclonic circulation over northwestern Australia, leading to convergence of moisture and increased precipitation. The Gill–Matsuno-type response overwhelms the subsidence of the anomalous Walker circulation associated with Modoki events over Australia during the peak of the monsoon.
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  • 5
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    Precise Calculations of the Existence of Multiple AMOC Equilibria in Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Equilibrium States (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: This study examines criteria for the existence of two stable states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) using a combination of theory and simulations from a numerical coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model. By formulating a simple collection of state parameters and their relationships, the authors reconstruct the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) OFF state behavior under a varying external salt-flux forcing. This part (Part I) of the paper examines the steady-state solution, which gives insight into the mechanisms that sustain the NADW OFF state in this coupled model; Part II deals with the transient behavior predicted by the evolution equation. The nonlinear behavior of the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) reverse cell is critical to the OFF state. Higher Atlantic salinity leads both to a reduced AAIW reverse cell and to a greater vertical salinity gradient in the South Atlantic. The former tends to reduce Atlantic salt export to the Southern Ocean, while the latter tends to increases it. These competing effects produce a nonlinear response of Atlantic salinity and salt export to salt forcing, and the existence of maxima in these quantities. Thus the authors obtain a natural and accurate analytical saddle-node condition for the maximal surface salt flux for which a NADW OFF state exists. By contrast, the bistability indicator proposed by De Vries and Weber does not generally work in this model. It is applicable only when the effect of the AAIW reverse cell on the Atlantic salt budget is weak.
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  • 6
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    The Role of Oceanic Heat Transport and Wind Stress Forcing in Abrupt Millennial-Scale Climate Transitions (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2010-05-01
    Description: The last glacial period was punctuated by rapid climate shifts, known as Dansgaard–Oeschger events, with strong imprint in the North Atlantic sector suggesting that they were linked with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Here an idealized single-hemisphere three-dimensional ocean–atmosphere–sea ice coupled model is used to explore the possible origin of the instability driving these abrupt events and to provide a plausible explanation for the relative stability of the Holocene. Focusing on the physics of noise-free millennial oscillations under steady external (solar) forcing, it was shown that cold climates become unstable, that is, exhibit abrupt millennial-scale transitions, for significantly lower freshwater fluxes than warm climates, in agreement with previous studies making use of zonally averaged coupled models. This fundamental difference is a direct consequence of the weaker stratification of the glacial ocean, mainly caused by upper-ocean cooling. Using a two-hemisphere configuration of a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, it is shown that this result is robust to the added presence of a bottom water mass of southern origin. The analysis reveals that under particular conditions, a pronounced interdecadal variability develops during warm interstadials. While the nature of the instability driving the millennial oscillations is identical to that found in ocean models under mixed boundary conditions, these interstadial–interdecadal oscillations share the same characteristics as those previously found in ocean models forced by fixed surface fluxes. The wind stress forcing is shown to profoundly affect both the properties and bifurcation structure of thermohaline millennial oscillations across a wide range of variation of freshwater forcing. In particular, it is shown that the wind stress forcing favors the maintenance of thermally direct meridional overturning circulations during the cold stadial phases of Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles.
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  • 7
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    CORRIGENDUM (2011)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2011-07-15
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  • 8
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    Subduction and Transport in the Indian and Pacific Oceans in a 2 × CO2 Climate (2011)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2011-03-15
    Description: Subduction, water mass transformation, and transport rates in the Indo-Pacific Ocean are diagnosed in a recent version of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis coupled model. It is found that the subduction across the base of the winter mixed layer is dominated by the lateral transfer, particularly within the relatively dense water classes corresponding to the densest mode and intermediate waters. However, within lighter densities, including those characterizing the lighter varieties of mode waters, the vertical transfer has a strong positive input to the net subduction. The upper-ocean volume transports across 30°N and 32°S are largest within the density classes that correspond to mode waters. In the North Pacific, the buoyancy flux converts the near-surface waters mostly to denser water classes, whereas in the Southern Ocean the surface waters are transformed both to lighter and denser water classes, depending on the density. In response to a doubling of CO2, the subduction, transformation, and transport of mode waters in both hemispheres shift to lighter densities but do not change significantly, whereas the subduction of intermediate waters decreases. The area of large winter mixed layer depths decreases, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. In the low latitudes, the thermocline water flux that enters the tropical Pacific via the western boundary flows generally increases. However, its anomaly has a complex structure, so that integrated estimates can be sensitive to the isopycnal ranges. The upper part of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) strengthens in the warmer climate, whereas its lower part weakens. The anomaly in the EUC closely follows the anomaly in stratification along the equator. The Indonesian Throughflow transport decreases with part of it being redirected eastward. This part joins with the intensified equatorward thermocline flows at the western boundaries and contributes to the EUC anomaly.
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  • 9
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    Indian and Pacific Ocean Influences on Southeast Australian Drought and Soil Moisture (2011)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2011-03-01
    Description: The relative influences of Indian and Pacific Ocean modes of variability on Australian rainfall and soil moisture are investigated for seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales. For the period 1900–2006, observations, reanalysis products, and hindcasts of soil moisture during the cool season (June–October) are used to assess the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) on southeastern Australia and the Murray–Darling Basin, two regions that have recently suffered severe droughts. A distinct asymmetry is found in the impacts of the opposite phases of both ENSO and IOD on Australian rainfall and soil moisture. There are significant differences between the dominant drivers of drought at interannual and decadal time scales. On interannual time scales, both ENSO and the IOD modify southeastern Australian soil moisture, with the driest (wettest) conditions over the southeast and more broadly over large parts of Australia occurring during years when an El Niño and a positive IOD event (La Niña and a negative IOD event) co-occur. The atmospheric circulation associated with these responses is discussed. Lower-frequency variability over southeastern Australia, however, including multiyear drought periods, seems to be more robustly related to Indian Ocean temperatures than Pacific conditions. The frequencies of both positive and negative IOD events are significantly different during periods of prolonged drought compared to extended periods of “normal” rainfall. In contrast, the frequency of ENSO events remains largely unchanged during prolonged dry and wet periods. For the Murray–Darling Basin, there appears to be a significant influence by La Niña and both positive and negative IOD events. In particular, La Niña plays a much more prominent role than for more southern regions, especially on interannual time scales and during prolonged wet periods. For prolonged dry (wet) periods, positive IOD events also occur in unusually high (low) numbers.
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  • 10
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    The Effect of the South Pacific Convergence Zone on the Termination of El Niño Events and the Meridional Asymmetry of ENSO* (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-08-15
    Description: During large El Niño events the westerly wind response to the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) shifts southward during boreal winter and early spring, reaching latitudes of 5°–7°S. The resulting meridional asymmetry, along with a related seasonal weakening of wind anomalies on the equator are key elements in the termination of strong El Niño events. Using an intermediate complexity atmosphere model it is demonstrated that these features result from a weakening of the climatological wind speeds south of the equator toward the end of the calendar year. The reduced climatological wind speeds, which are associated with the seasonal intensification of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), lead to anomalous boundary layer Ekman pumping and a reduced surface momentum damping of the combined boundary layer/lower-troposphere surface wind response to El Niño. This allows the associated zonal wind anomalies to shift south of the equator. Furthermore, using a linear shallow-water ocean model it is demonstrated that this southward wind shift plays a prominent role in changing zonal mean equatorial heat content and is solely responsible for establishing the meridional asymmetry of thermocline depth in the turnaround (recharge/discharge) phase of ENSO. This result calls into question the sole role of oceanic Rossby waves in the phase synchronized termination of El Niño events and suggests that the development of a realistic climatological SPCZ in December–February/March–May (DJF/MAM) is one of the key factors in the seasonal termination of strong El Niño events.
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