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  • AGU (American Geophysical Union)  (3)
  • 2010-2014  (3)
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  • 1
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (17). L17801.
    Publication Date: 2017-06-20
    Description: The tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is examined in an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model runs that use relaxation towards the ERA-40 reanalysis in the tropics for winters between 1960/61 and 2001/02 and performed with a recent version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. 25% of the interannual variance of the EAWM can be reproduced in the ensemble mean by the model experiments with relaxation, even though the influence from ENSO appears to be weak. The implication is that there is the possibility of enhanced predictability for the EAWM resulting from improved forecast skill in the tropics as a whole. Prescribing observed sea surface temperature and sea ice without using relaxation cannot reproduce the interannual variability of the EAWM in our experiments, questioning the usefulness of uncoupled atmosphere models in this region, consistent with previous studies. Key Points: - Tropical impact on interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon. - Tropical influence and extratropical SST and sea-ice matter for the trend. - AGCMs driven only by observed SST and sea-ice give poor results.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 2
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (L13809).
    Publication Date: 2019-07-09
    Description: A relaxation technique applied to the ECMWF model is used to analyse 11, 21 and 31 year trends in the boreal winter mean 500 hPa North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North America pattern (PNA) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices. For the PNA, the results indicate a strong influence from the tropics on all time scales, whereas for the NAO, the stratosphere is important on time scales of 11 and 21 but with an indication of feedback from extratropical sea surface temperature and sea-ice (SSTSI) anomalies on the 11 year time scale. For the SAM, the tropics emerge as the most important influence. We find an influence from the stratosphere consistent with expectations based on ozone depletion, although no clear role for stratospheric forcing of the SAM is found in these experiments.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (10). pp. 3643-3648.
    Publication Date: 2017-04-10
    Description: A link between atmospheric variability in the Tropics independent of ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is found based on seasonal mean data for austral summer. Variations associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are removed usinga linear method and a Tropics Index (TI) is defined as the zonal average of the ENSO-removed 500 hPa geopotential height between 10°S and 10°N. Since the detrended TI shows no link to SST variability in the Tropics, it appears to be related to internal atmospheric variability. We find that the TI can explain about 40% variance of the SAM interannual variability and about 75% of the SAM long term trend between 1957/58 and 2001/02, where here the SAM includes the ENSO signal. Positive/negative values of the TI are associated with the positive/negative SAM. A possible link between the TI and global warming is noted.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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