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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2014-04-01
    Print ISSN: 2169-9313
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-9356
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: We have developed a network optimization method for regional-scale microseismic monitoring networks and applied it to optimize the densification of the existing seismic network in northeastern Switzerland. The new network will build the backbone of a 10-yr study on the neotectonic activity of this area that will help to better constrain the seismic hazard imposed on nuclear power plants and waste repository sites. This task defined the requirements regarding location precision (0.5 km in epicentre and 2 km in source depth) and detection capability [magnitude of completeness M c  = 1.0 ( M L )]. The goal of the optimization was to find the geometry and size of the network that met these requirements. Existing stations in Switzerland, Germany and Austria were considered in the optimization procedure. We based the optimization on the simulated annealing approach proposed by Hardt & Scherbaum, which aims to minimize the volume of the error ellipsoid of the linearized earthquake location problem ( D -criterion). We have extended their algorithm to: calculate traveltimes of seismic body waves using a finite difference ray tracer and the 3-D velocity model of Switzerland, calculate seismic body-wave amplitudes at arbitrary stations assuming the Brune source model and using scaling and attenuation relations recently derived for Switzerland, and estimate the noise level at arbitrary locations within Switzerland using a first-order ambient seismic noise model based on 14 land-use classes defined by the EU-project CORINE and open GIS data. We calculated optimized geometries for networks with 10–35 added stations and tested the stability of the optimization result by repeated runs with changing initial conditions. Further, we estimated the attainable magnitude of completeness ( M c ) for the different sized optimal networks using the Bayesian Magnitude of Completeness (BMC) method introduced by Mignan et al. The algorithm developed in this study is also applicable to smaller optimization problems, for example, small local monitoring networks. Possible applications are volcano monitoring, the surveillance of induced seismicity associated with geotechnical operations and many more. Our algorithm is especially useful to optimize networks in populated areas with heterogeneous noise conditions and if complex velocity structures or existing stations have to be considered.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2014-11-07
    Description: The effect of network density and geometric distribution on kinematic non-linear source inversion is investigated by inverting synthetic ground motions from a buried strike-slip fault ( M w 6.5), that have been generated by dynamic spontaneous rupture modelling. For the inversion, we use a physics-based regularized Yoffe function as slip velocity function. We test three different cases of station network geometry: (i) single station, varying azimuth and epicentral distance; (ii) multistation circular configurations, that is stations at similar distances from the fault, and regularly spaced around the fault; (iii) irregular multistation configurations using different numbers of stations. Our results show: (1) single station tests suggest that it may be possible to obtain a relatively good source model even using a single station. The best source model using a single station is obtained with stations at which amplitude ratios between three components are not large. We infer that both azimuthal angle and source-to-station distance play an important role in the design of optimal seismic network for source inversion. (2) Multistation tests show that the quality of the inverted source systematically correlates neither with the number of stations, nor with waveform misfit. (3) Waveform misfit has a direct correlation with the number of stations, resulting in overfitting the observed data without any systematic improvement of the source. It suggests that the best source model is not necessarily derived from the model with minimum waveform misfit. (4) A seismic network with a small number of well-spaced stations around the fault may be sufficient to obtain acceptable source inversion.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2014-07-03
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates ( a - and b -value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2014-06-21
    Description: The topography of the core–mantle boundary (CMB) is directly linked to the dynamics of both the mantle and the outer core, although it is poorly constrained and understood. Recent studies have produced topography models with mutual agreement up to degree 2. A broad-band waveform inversion strategy is introduced and applied here, with relatively low computational cost and based on a first-order Born approximation. Its performance is validated using synthetic waveforms calculated in theoretical earth models that include different topography patterns with varying lateral wavelengths, from 600 to 2500 km, and magnitudes (~10 km peak-to-peak). The source–receiver geometry focuses mainly on the P diff , PKP , PcP and ScS phases. The results show that PKP branches, PcP and ScS generally perform well and in a similar fashion, while P diff yields unsatisfactory results. We investigate also how 3-D mantle correction influences the output models, and find that despite the disturbance introduced, the models recovered do not appear to be biased, provided that the 3-D model is correct. Using cross-correlated traveltimes, we derive new topography models from both P and S waves. The static corrections used to remove the mantle effect are likely to affect the inversion, compromising the agreement between models derived from P and S data. By modelling traveltime residuals starting from sensitivity kernels, we show how the simultaneous use of volumetric and boundary kernels can reduce the bias coming from mantle structures. The joint inversion approach should be the only reliable method to invert for CMB topography using absolute cross-correlation traveltimes.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2014-06-30
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates ( a - and b -value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2013-01-11
    Description: The Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ), North Iceland, is a 120 km transform offset of the Mid-Atlantic-Ridge that accommodates 18 mm yr –1 plate motion on two parallel transform structures and connects the offshore Kolbeinsey Ridge in the north to the on-shore Northern Volcanic Zone (NVZ) in the south. This transform zone is offshore except for a part of the right-lateral strike-slip Húsavík-Flatey fault (HFF) system that lies close to the coastal town of Húsavík, inducing a significant seismic risk to its inhabitants. In our previous work we constrained the locking depth and slip-rate of the HFF using 4 yr of continuous GPS measurements and found that the accumulated slip-deficit on the fault is equivalent to a M w 6.8 ± 0.1 earthquake, assuming a complete stress release in the last major earthquakes in 1872 and a steady accumulation since then. In this paper we improve our previous analysis by adding 44 campaign GPS (EGPS) data points, which have been regularly observed since 1997. We extract the steady-state interseismic velocities within the TFZ by correcting the GPS data for volcanic inflation of Theistareykir—the westernmost volcano of the NVZ—using a model with a magma volume increase of 25  x 10 6  m 3 , constrained by InSAR time-series analysis results. The improved velocity field based on 58 GPS stations confirms the robustness of our previous model and allows to better constrain the free model parameters. For the HFF we find a slightly shallower locking depth of ~6.2 km and a slightly higher slip-rate of ~6.8 mm yr –1 that again result in the same seismic potential equivalent to a M w 6.8 earthquake. The much larger number of GPS velocities improves the statistically estimated model parameter uncertainties by a factor of two, when compared to our previous study, a result that we validate using Bayesian estimation.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2012-12-19
    Description: We apply two different algorithms to measure surface wave phase velocity, as a function of frequency, from seismic ambient noise recorded at pairs of stations from a large European network. The two methods are based on consistent theoretical formulations, but differ in the implementation: one method involves the time-domain cross-correlation of signal recorded at different stations; the other is based on frequency-domain cross-correlation, and requires finding the zero-crossings of the real part of the cross-correlation spectrum. Furthermore, the time-domain method, as implemented here and in the literature, practically involves the important approximation that interstation distance be large compared to seismic wavelength. In both cases, cross-correlations are ensemble-averaged over a relatively long period of time (1 yr). We verify that the two algorithms give consistent results, and infer that phase velocity can be successfully measured through ensemble-averaging of seismic ambient noise, further validating earlier studies that had followed either approach. The description of our experiment and its results is accompanied by a detailed though simplifed derivation of ambient-noise theory, writing out explicitly the relationships between the surface wave Green’s function, ambient-noise cross-correlation and phase and group velocities.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2013-05-09
    Description: We present a new approach to relocate earthquakes in the greater western Alpine region using main crustal phases ( Pg , Pn , PmP ) that takes advantage of recent developments in P -wave velocity models and modelling of the Moho topography in the region, as well as the ability to track reflected and refracted phases in three-dimensional (3-D) heterogeneous media. Our approach includes a new 3-D P -wave velocity model for Switzerland and surrounding regions that combines a first-order Moho discontinuity based on local earthquake tomography (LET) and controlled-source seismology (CSS) information and 3-D seismic velocity information based on LET. Traveltimes for the main crustal phases ( Pg , Pn , PmP ) are computed using a fast marching method. We use a non-linear, probabilistic approach to relocate earthquakes that has been extended to include the use of secondary phases. We validate our approach using synthetic data, which was computed for a real earthquake and different combinations of available phases ( Pg , Pn , PmP ). We also applied our approach to relocate four selected earthquakes, two shallow and two deep crustal events in the northern Alpine foreland, for which independent information (ground truth information) on their focal depths exist. Our results demonstrate that the precision and accuracy of focal depth estimates can be greatly improved if secondary phases are used. This gain is a combined effect of an improved range of take-off angles and the use of differential traveltimes between first and secondary arriving phases. Our results also show that reliable information on the Moho depth is crucial to obtain accurate focal depths, if Pn or PmP phases are used in the relocation process. Finally, our approach demonstrates that proper identification of the main crustal phases in combination with an appropriate model parametrization in the forward solver will significantly improve earthquake locations.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2000-10-01
    Print ISSN: 0032-0633
    Electronic ISSN: 1873-5088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Elsevier
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