ALBERT

Note: Contents Prologue Acknowledgments List of Symbols PART I Foundations 1 INTRODUCTION: The Basic Challenge 1.1 The Climate System 1.2 Some Basic Observations 1.3 External Forcing 1.3.1 Astronomical Forcing 1.3.2 Tectonic Forcing 1.4 The Ice-Age Problem 2 TECHNIQUES FOR CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION 2.1 Historical Methods 2.1.1 Direct Quantitative Measurements 2.1.2 Descriptive Accounts of General Environmental Conditions 2.2 Surficial Biogeologic Proxy Evidence 2.2.1 Annually Layered Life Forms 2.2.2 Surface Geomorphic Evidence 2.3 Conventional Nonisotopic Stratigraphic Analyses of Sedimentary Rock and Ice 2.3.1 Physical Indicators 2.3.2 Paleobiological Indicators (Fossil Faunal Types and Abundances) 2.4 Isotopic Methods 2.4.1 Oxygen Isotopes 2.4.2 Deuterium and Beryllium in Ice Cores 2.4.3 Stable Carbon Isotopes 2.4.4 Strontium and Osmium Isotopes 2.5 Nonisotopic Geochemical Methods 2.5.1 Cadmium Analysis 2.5.2 Greenhouse Gas Analysis of Trapped Air in Ice Cores 2.5.3 Chemical and Biological Constituents and Dust Layers in Ice Cores 2.6 Dating the Proxy Evidence (Geochronometry) 3 A SURVEY OF GLOBAL PALEOCLIMATIC VARIATIONS 3.1 The Phanerozoic Eon (Past 600 My) 3.2 The Cenozoic Era (Past 65 My) 3.3 The Plio-Pleistocene (Past 5 My) 3.4 Variations during the Last Ice Age: IRD Events 3.5 The Last Glacial Maximum (20 ka) 3.6 Postglacial Changes: The Past 20 ky 3.7 The Past 100 Years 3.8 The Generalized Spectrum of Climatic Variance 3.9 A Qualitative Discussion of Causes 4 GENERAL THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS 4.1 The Fundamental Equations 4.2 Time Averaging and Stochastic Forcing 4.3 Response Times and Equilibrium 4.4 Spatial Averaging 4.5 Climatic-Mean Mass and Energy Balance Equations 4.5.1 The Water Mass Balance 4.5.2 Energy Balance 5 SPECIAL THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR PALEOCLIMATE: Structuring a Dynamical Approach 5.1 A Basic Problem: Noncalculable Levels of Energy and Mass Flow 5.2 An Overall Strategy 5.3 Notational Simplifications for Resolving Total Climate Variability 5.4 A Structured Dynamical Approach 5.5 The External Forcing Function, F 5.5.1 Astronomical/Cosmic Forcing 5.5.2 Tectonic Forcing 6 BASIC CONCEPTS OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: Prototypical Climatic Applications 6.1 Local (or Internal) Stability 6.2 The Generic Cubic Nonlinearity 6.3 Structural (or External) Stability: Elements of Bifurcation Theory 6.4 Multivariable Systems 6.4.1 The Two-Variable Phase Plane 6.5 A Prototype Two-Variable Model 6.5.1 Sensitivity of Equilibria to Changes in Parameters: Prediction of the Second Kind 6.5.2 Structural Stability 6.6 The Prototype Two-Variable System as a Stochastic-Dynamical System: Effects of Random Forcing 6.6.1 The Stochastic Amplitude 6.6.2 Structural Stochastic Stability 6.7 More Than Two-Variable Systems: Deterministic Chaos PART II Physics of the Separate Domains 7 MODELING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE STATE AS FAST-RESPONSE COMPONENTS 7.1 The General Circulation Model 7.2 Lower Resolution Models: Statistical-Dynamical Models and the Energy Balance Model 7.2.1 A Zonal-Average SDM 7.2.2 Axially Asymmetric SDMs 7.2.3 The Complete Time-Average State 7.3 Thermodynamic Models 7.3.1 Radiative-Convective Models 7.3.2 Vertically Averaged Models (the EBM) 7.4 The Basic Energy Balance Model 7.5 Equilibria and Dynamical Properties of the Zero-Dimensional (Global Average) EBM 7.6 Stochastic Resonance 7.7 The One-Dimensional (Latitude-Dependent) EBM 7.8 Transitivity Properties of the Atmospheric and Surface Climatic State: Inferences from a GCM 7.9 Closure Relationships Based on GCM Sensitivity Experiments 7.9.1 Surface Temperature Sensitivity 7.10 Formal Feedback Analysis of the Fast-Response Equilibrium State 7.11 Paleoclimatic Simulations 8 THE SLOW-RESPONSE "CONTROL" VARIABLES: An Overview 8.1 The Ice Sheets 8.1.1 Key Variables 8.1.2 Observations 8.2 Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide 8.3 The Thermohaline Ocean State 8.4 A Three-Dimensional Phase-Space Trajectory 9 GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF THE ICE SHEETS 9.1 Basic Equations and Boundary Conditions 9.2 A Scale Analysis 9.3 The Vertically Integrated Ice-Sheet Model 9.4 The Surface Mass Balance 9.5 Basal Temperature and Melting 9.6 Deformable Basal Regolith 9.7 Ice Streams and Ice Shelves 9.8 Bedrock Depression 9.9 Sea Level Change and the Ice Sheets: The Depression-Calving Hypothesis 9.10 Paleoclimatic Applications of the Vertically Integrated Model 9.11 A Global Dynamical Equation for Ice Mass 10 DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 10.1 The Air-Sea Flux, Q↑ 10.1.1 Qualitative Analysis of the Factors Affecting Q↑ 10.1.2 Mathematical Formulation of the Ocean Carbon Balance 10.1.3 A Parameterization for Q↑ 10.2 Terrestrial Organic Carbon Exchange, W↑G 10.2.1 Sea Level Change Effects 10.2.2 Thermal Effects 10.2.3 Ice Cover Effects 10.2.4 Long-Term Terrestrial Organic Burial, W↓G 10.2.5 The Global Mass Balance of Organic Carbon 10.3 Outgassing Processes, V↑ 10.4 Rock Weathering Downdraw, W↓ 10.5 A Global Dynamical Equation for Atmospheric CO2 10.6 Modeling the Tectonically Forced CO2 Variations, µˆ : Long-Term Rock Processes 10.6.1 The Long-Term Oceanic Carbon Balance 10.6.2 The GEOCARB Model 10.7 Overview of the Full Global Carbon Cycle 11 SIMPLIFIED DYNAMICS OF THE THERMOHALINE OCEAN STATE 11.1 General Equations 11.1.1 Boundary Conditions 11.2 A Prototype Four-Box Ocean Model 11.3 The Wind-Driven, Local-Convective, and Baroclinic Eddy Circulations 11.3.1 The Wind-Driven Circulation: Gyres and Upwelling 11.3.2 Local Convective Overturnings and Baroclinic Eddy Circulations 11.4 The Two-Box Thermohaline Circulation Model: Possible Bimodality of the Ocean State 11.4.1 The Two-Box System 11.4.2 A Simple Model of the TH Circulation 11.4.3 Meridional Fluxes 11.4.4 Dynamical Analysis of the Two-Box Model 11.5 Integral Equations for the Deep Ocean State 11.5.1 The Deep Ocean Temperature 11.5.2 The Deep Ocean Salinity 11.6 Global Dynamical Equations for the Thermohaline State: θ and Sφ PART III Unified Dynamical Theory 12 THE COUPLED FAST- AND SLOW-RESPONSE VARIABLES AS A GLOBAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM: Outline of a Theory of Paleoclimatic Variation 12.1 The Unified Model: A Paleoclimate Dynamics Model 12.2 Feedback-Loop Representation 12.3 Elimination of the Fast-Response Variables: The Center Manifold 12.4 Sources of Instability: The Dissipative Rate Constants 12.5 Formal Separation into Tectonic Equilibrium and Departure Equations 13 FORCED EVOLUTION OF THE TECTONIC-MEAN CLIMATIC STATE 13.1 Effects of Changing Solar Luminosity and Rotation Rate 13.1.1 Solar Luminosity (S) 13.1.2 Rotation Rate (Ω) 13.2 General Effects of Changing Land-Ocean Distribution and Topography (h) 13.3 Effects of Long-Term Variations of Volcanic and Cosmic Dust and Bolides 13.4 Multimillion-Year Evolution of CO2 13.4.1 The GEOCARB Solution 13.4.2 First-Order Response of Global Ice Mass and Deep Ocean Temperature to Tectonic CO2 Variations 13.5 Possible Role of Salinity-Driven Instability of the Tectonic-Mean State 13.6 Snapshot Atmospheric and Surficial Equilibrium Responses to Prescribed y-Fields Using GCMs 14 THE LATE CENOZOIC ICE-AGE DEPARTURES: An Overview of Previous Ideas and Models 14.1 General Review: Forced vs. Free Models 14.1.1 Models in Which Earth-Orbital Forcing Is Necessary 14.1.2 Instability-Driven (Auto-oscillatory) Models 14.1.3 Hierarchical Classification in Terms of Increasing Physical Complexity 14.2 Forced Ice-Line Models (Box 1, Fig. 14-1) 14.3 Ice-Sheet Inertia Models 14.3.1 The Simplest Forms (Box 2) 14.3.2 More Physically Based Ice-Sheet Models: First Applications 14.3.3 Direct Bedrock Effects (Box 3) 14.3.4 Bedrock-Calving Effects (Box 4) 14.3.5 Basal Meltwater and Sliding (Box 5) 14.3.6 Ice Streams and Ice Shelf Effects 14.3.7 Continental Ice-Sheet Movement (Box 6) 14.3.8 Three-Dimensional (λ, φ, hI) Ice-Sheet Models 14.4 The Need for Enhancement of the Coupled Ice-Sheet/Atmospheric Climate Models 14.5 Ice-Sheet Variables Coupled with Additional Slow-Response Variables 14.5.1 Regolith Mass, mr (Box 7) 14.5.2 The Deep Ocean Te

Note: Contents Preface Ackowledgements 1 Introduction 1.1 Definition and extent 1.2 The role of the cryosphere in the climate system 1.3 The organization of cryospheric observations and research 1.4 Remote sensing of the cryosphere Part I The terrestrial cryosphere 2A Snowfall and snow cover 2.1 History 2.2 Snow formation 2.3 Snow cover 2.4 Snow cover modeling in land surface schemes of GCMs 2.5 Snow interception by the canopy 2.6 Sublimation 2.7 Snow metamorphism 2.8 In situ measurements of snow 2.9 Remote sensing of snowpack properties and snow-cover area 2.10 Snowmelt modeling 2.11 Recent observed snow cover changes 2B Avalanches 2.12 History 2.13 Avalanche characteristics 2.14 Avalanche models 2.15 Trends' in avalanchf:' conditions 3 Glaciers and ice caps 3.1 History 3.2 Definitions 3.3 Glacier characteristics 3.4 Mass balance 3.5 Remote sensing 3.6 Glacier flow and flowlines 3.7 Scaling 3.8 Glacier modeling 3.9 Ice caps 3.10 Glacier hydrology 3.11 Changes in glaciers and ice caps 4 Ice sheets 4.1 History of exploration 4.2 Mass balance 4.3 Remote sensing 4.4 Mechanisms of ice sheet changes 4.5 The Greenland Ice Sheet 4.6 Antarctica 4.7 Overall ice sheet changes 4.8 Ice sheet models 4.9 Ice sheet and ice shelf interaction 4.10 Ice sheet contributions to sea level change 5 Frozen ground and permafrost 5.1 History 5.2 Frozen ground definitions and extent 5.3 Thermal relationships 5.4 Vertical characteristics of permafrost 5.5 Remote sensing 5.6 Ground ice 5.7 Permafrost models 5.8 Geomorphological features associated with permafrost 5.9 Changes in permafrost and soil freezing 6 Freshwater ice 6.1 History 6.2 Lake ice 6.3 Changes in lake ice cover 6.4 River ice 6.5 Trends in river ice cover 6.6 Icings Part II The marine cryosphere 7 Sea ice 7.1 History 7.2 Sea ice characteristics 7.3 Ice drift and ocean circulation 7.4 Sea ice models 7.5 Leads, polynyas, and pressure ridges 7.6 Ice thickness 7.7 Trends in sea ice extent and thickness 8 Ice shelves and icebergs 8.1 History 8.2 Ice shelves 8.3 Ice streams 8.4 Conditions beneath ice shelves 8.5 Ice shelf buttressing 8.6 Icebergs 8.7 Ice islands Part Ill The cryosphere past and future 9 The cryosphere in the past 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Snowball Earth and ice-free Cretaceous 9.3 Phanerozoic glaciations 9.4 Late Cenozoic polar glaciations 9.5 The Quaternary 9.6 The Holocene 10 The future cryosphere: impacts of global warming 10.1 Introduction 10.2 General observations 10.3 Recent cryospheric changes 10.4 Climate projections 10.5 Projected changes to Northern Hemisphere snow cover 10.6 Projected changes in land ice 10.7 Projected permafrost changes 10.8 Projected changes in freshwater ice 10.9 Projected sea ice changes Part IV Applications 11 Applications of snow and ice research 11.1 Snowfall 11.2 Freezing precipitation 11.3 Avalanches 11.4 Ice avalanches 11.5 Winter sports industry 11.6 Water resources 11.7 Hydropower 11.8 Snow melt floods 11.9 Freshwater ice 11.10 Ice roads 11.11 Sea ice 11.12 Glaciers and ice sheets 11.13 Icebergs 11.14 Permafrost and ground ice I 1.15 Seasonal ground freezing Glossary References Index

Note: Contents: Preface to the eighth edition. - Acknowledgements. - 1 INTRODUCTION AND HISTORY OF METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY. - A The atmosphere. - B Solar energy. - C Global circulation. - D Climatology. - E Mid-latitude disturbances. - F Tropical weather. - G Palaeoclimates. - H The global climate system. - 2 ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION, MASS AND STRUCTURE. - A Composition of the atmosphere. - 1 Primary gases. - 2 Greenhouse gases. - 3 Reactive gas species. - 4 Aerosols. - 5 Variations with height. - 6 Variations with latitude and season. - 7 Variations with time. - B Mass of the atmosphere. - 1 Total pressure. - 2 Vapour pressure C The layering of the atmosphere. - 1 Troposphere. - 2 Stratosphere. - 3 Mesosphere. - 4 Thermosphere. - 5 Exosphere and magnetosphere. - 3 SOLAR RADIATION AND THE GLOBAL ENERGY BUDGET. - A Solar radiation. - 1 Solar output. - 2 Distance from the sun. - 3 Altitude of the sun. - 4 Length of day. - B Surface receipt of solar radiation and its effects. - 1 Energy transfer within the earth-atmosphere system. - 2 Effect of the atmosphere. - 3 Effect of cloud cover. - 4 Effect of latitude. - 5 Effect ofland and sea. - 6 Effect of elevation and aspect. - 7 Variation of free-air temperature with height. - C Terrestrial infra-red radiation and the greenhouse effect. - D Heat budget of the earth. - E Atmospheric energy and horizontal heat transport. - 1 The horizontal transport of heat. - 2 Spatial pattern of the heat budget components. - 4 ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BUDGET. - A The global hydrological cycle. - B Humidity. - 1 Moisture content. - 2 Moisture transport. - C Evaporation. - D Condensation. - E Precipitation characteristics and measurement. - 1 Forms of precipitation. - 2 Precipitation characteristics. - a Rainfall intensity. - b Areal extent of a rainstorm. - c Frequency of rainstorms. - 3 The world pattern of precipitation. - 4 Regional variations in the altitudinal maximum of precipitation. - 5 Drought. - 5 ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY, CLOUD FORMATION AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. - A Adiabatic temperature changes. - B Condensation level. - C Air stability and instability. - D Cloud formation. - 1 Condensation nuclei. - 2 Cloud types. - 3 Global cloud cover. - E Formation of precipitation. - 1 Bergeron-Findeisen theory. - 2 Coalescence theories. - 3 Solid precipitation. - F Precipitation types. - 1 'Convective type' precipitation. - 2 'Cyclonic type' precipitation. - 3 Orographic precipitation. - G Thunderstorms. - 1 Development. - 2 Cloud electrification and lightning. - 6 ATMOSPHERIC MOTION: PRINCIPLES. - A Laws of horizontal motion. - 1 The pressure-gradient force. - 2 The earth's rotational deflective (Coriolis) force. - 3 The geostrophic wind. - 4 The centripetal acceleration. - 5 Frictional forces and the planetary boundary layer. - B Divergence, vertical motion and vorticity. - 1 Divergence. - 2 Vertical motion. - 3 Vorticity. - C Local winds. - 1 Mountain and valley winds. - 2 Land and sea breezes. - 3 Winds due to topographic barriers. - 7 PLANETARY-SCALE MOTIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. - A Variation of pressure and wind velocity with height. - 1 The vertical variation of pressure systems. - 2 Mean upper-air patterns. - 3 Upper wind conditions. - 4 Surface pressure conditions. - B The global wind belts. - 1 The trade winds. - 2 The equatorial westerlies. - 3 The mid-latitude (Ferrel) westerlies. - 4 The polar easterlies. - C The general circulation. - 1 Circulations in the vertical and horizontal planes. - 2 Variations in the circulation of the northern hemisphere. - a Zonal index variations. - b North Atlantic Oscillation. - D Ocean structure and circulation. - 1 Above the thermocline. - a Vertical. - b Horizontal. - 2 Deep ocean water interactions. - a Upwelling. - b Deep ocean circulation. - 3 The oceans and atmospheric regulation. - 8 NUMERICAL MODELS OF THE GENERAL CIRCULATION, CLIMATE AND WEATHER PREDICTION / T. N. Chase and R. G. Barry. - A Fundamentals of the GCM. - B Model simulations. - 1 GCMs. - 2 Simpler models. - 3 Regional models. - C Data sources for forecasting. - D Numerical weather prediction. - 1 Short- and medium-range forecasting. - 2 'Nowcasting'. - 3 Long-range outlooks. - 9 MID-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SYSTEMS. - A The airmass concept. - B Nature of the source area. - 1 Cold airmasses. - 2 Warm airmasses. - C Airmass modification. - 1 Mechanisms of modification. - a Thermodynamic changes. - b Dynamic changes. - 2 The results of modification: secondary airmasses. - a Cold air. - b Warm air. - 3 The age of the airmass. - D Frontogenesis. - 1 Frontal waves. - 2 The frontal-wave depression. - E Frontal characteristics. - 1 The warm front. - 2 The cold front. - 3 The occlusion. - 4 Frontal-wave families. - F Zones of wave development and frontogenesis. - G Surface/upper-air relationships and the formation of frontal cyclones. - H Non-frontal depressions. - 1 The lee cyclone. - 2 The thermal low. - 3 Polar air depressions. - 4 The cold low. - I Mesoscale convective systems. - 10 WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES. - A Europe. - 1 Pressure and wind conditions. - 2 Oceanicity and continentality. - 3 British airflow patterns and their climatic characteristics. - 4 Singularities and natural seasons. - 5 Synoptic anomalies. - 6 Topographic effects. - B North America. - 1 Pressure systems. - 2 The temperate west coast and Cordillera. - 3 Interior and eastern North America. - a Continental and oceanic influences. - b Warm and cold spells. - c Precipitation and the moisture balance. - C The subtropical margins. - 1 The semi-arid southwestern United States. - 2 The interior southeastern United States. - 3 The Mediterranean. - 4 North Africa. - 5 Australasia. - D High latitudes. - 1 The southern westerlies. - 2 The sub-Arctic. - 3 The polar regions. - a The Arctic. - b Antarctica. - 11 TROPICAL WEATHER AND CLIMATE. - A The intertropical convergence. - B Tropical disturbances. - 1 Wave disturbances. - 2 Cyclones. - a Hurricanes and typhoons. - b Other tropical disturbances. - 3 Tropical cloud clusters. - C The Asian monsoon. - 1 Winter. - 2 Spring. - 3 Early summer. - 4 Summer. - 5 Autumn. - D East Asian and Australian summer monsoons. - E Central and southern Africa. - 1 The African monsoon. - 2 Southern Africa. - F Amazonia. - G El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. - 1 The Pacific Ocean. - 2 Teleconnections. - H Other sources of climatic variations in the tropics. - 1 Cool ocean currents. - 2 Topographic effects. - 3 Diurnal variations. - I Forecasting tropical weather. - 1 Short- and extended-range forecasts. - 2 Long-range forecasts. - 12 BOUNDARY LAYER CLIMATES. - A Surface energy budgets. - B Non-vegetated natural surfaces. - 1 Rock and sand. - 2 Water. - 3 Snow and ice C Vegetated surfaces. - 1 Short green crops. - 2 Forests. - a Modification of energy transfers. - b Modification of airflow. - c Modification of the humidity environment. - d Modification of the thermal environment. - D Urban surfaces. - 1 Modification of atmospheric composition. - a Aerosols. - b Gases. - c Pollution distribution and impacts. - 2 Modification of the heat budget. - a Atmospheric composition. - b Urban surfaces. - c Human heat production. - d Heat islands. - 3 Modification of surface characteristics. - a Airflow. - b Moisture. - 4 Tropical urban climates. - 13 CLIMATE CHANGE. - A General considerations. - B Climate forcings and feedbacks. - 1 External forcing. - 2 Short-term forcing and feedback. - C The climatic record. - 1 The geological record. - 2 Late glacial and post-glacial conditions. - 3 The past 1000 years. - D Possible causes of recent climatic change. - 1 Circulation changes. - 2 Energy budgets. - 3 Anthropogenic factors. - E Model s