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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-11-30
    Description: Significant predictive skill for the mean winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been recently reported for a number of different seasonal forecasting systems. These findings are important in exploring the predictability of the natural system, but they are also important from a socioeconomic point of view, since the ability to predict the wintertime atmospheric circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic well ahead in time will have significant benefits for North American and European countries. In contrast to the tropics, for the mid latitudes the predictive skill of many forecasting systems at the seasonal time scale has been shown to be low to moderate. The recent findings are promising in this regard, suggesting that better forecasts are possible, provided that key components of the climate system are initialized realistically and the coupled models are able to simulate adequately the dominant processes and teleconnections associated with low-frequency variability. It is shown that a multisystem approach has unprecedented high predictive skill for the NAO and AO, probably largely due to increasing the ensemble size and partly due to increasing model diversity. Predicting successfully the winter mean NAO does not ensure that the respective climate anomalies are also well predicted. The NAO has a strong impact on Europe and North America, yet it only explains part of the interannual and low-frequency variability over these areas. Here it is shown with a number of different diagnostics that the high predictive skill for the NAO/AO indeed translates to more accurate predictions of temperature, surface pressure, and precipitation in the areas of influence of this teleconnection.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1461-1475
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-01-01
    Description: The stratosphere contains ~17% of Earth’s atmospheric mass, but its existence was unknown until 1902. In the following decades our knowledge grew gradually as more observations of the stratosphere were made. In 1913 the ozone layer, which protects life from harmful ultraviolet radiation, was discovered. From ozone and water vapor observations, a first basic idea of a stratospheric general circulation was put forward. Since the 1950s our knowledge of the stratosphere and mesosphere has expanded rapidly, and the importance of this region in the climate system has become clear. With more observations, several new stratospheric phenomena have been discovered: the quasi-biennial oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, the Southern Hemisphere ozone hole, and surface weather impacts of stratospheric variability. None of these phenomena were anticipated by theory. Advances in theory have more often than not been prompted by unexplained phenomena seen in new stratospheric observations. From the 1960s onward, the importance of dynamical processes and the coupled stratosphere–troposphere circulation was realized. Since approximately 2000, better representations of the stratosphere—and even the mesosphere—have been included in climate and weather forecasting models. We now know that in order to produce accurate seasonal weather forecasts, and to predict long-term changes in climate and the future evolution of the ozone layer, models with a well-resolved stratosphere with realistic dynamics and chemistry are necessary.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3646
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2015-07-30
    Description: ABSTRACT A multiproxy Lateglacial environmental record is presented for a ca. 3.5-m lacustrine sequence retrieved from a small basin (ca. 2 km 2 ) at Thomastown Bog in County Meath, Ireland. Sediment chemistry, pollen, chironomid and stable isotope data provide a detailed picture of catchment and lake system changes from the end of the last glacial (GS-2a) to the early Holocene that correspond closely to existing local and regional models of climate change. Concomitant adjustments in independent proxy records are matched to the NGRIP oxygen isotope curve giving 12 event-episodes ranging from major climatic shifts to lower amplitude, centennial- to sub-centennial-scale adjustments, including a previously unreported regressive period of landscape instability during the north-west European ‘Rammelbeek Phase’. The study emphasizes the potential of palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from sediment chemistry where the sediment mixing system reflects autochthonous versus allochthonous inputs. The investigation also indicates problems of interpreting isotope data derived from bulk marl due to possible lag effects controlling the delivery of soil and groundwater and multiple sources of HCO 3– (aq.). These research findings have implications for core site selection and for studies attempting to use stable isotopes for correlation purposes.
    Print ISSN: 0267-8179
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1417
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2015-09-27
    Description: We present the first search for spinning dust emission from a sample of 34 Galactic cold cores, performed using the CARMA interferometer. For each of our cores, we use photometric data from the Herschel Space Observatory to constrain $\bar{N}_{\mathrm{H}}$ , $\bar{T}_{\mathrm{d}}$ , $\bar{n}_{\mathrm{H}}$ , and $\bar{G}_{\mathrm{0}}$ . By computing the mass of the cores and comparing it to the Bonnor–Ebert mass, we determined that 29 of the 34 cores are gravitationally unstable and undergoing collapse. In fact, we found that six cores are associated with at least one young stellar object, suggestive of their protostellar nature. By investigating the physical conditions within each core, we can shed light on the cm emission revealed (or not) by our CARMA observations. Indeed, we find that only three of our cores have any significant detectable cm emission. Using a spinning dust model, we predict the expected level of spinning dust emission in each core and find that for all 34 cores, the predicted level of emission is larger than the observed cm emission constrained by the CARMA observations. Moreover, even in the cores for which we do detect cm emission, we cannot, at this stage, discriminate between free–free emission from young stellar objects and spinning dust emission. We emphasize that although the CARMA observations described in this analysis place important constraints on the presence of spinning dust in cold, dense environments, the source sample targeted by these observations is not statistically representative of the entire population of Galactic cores.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2015-05-29
    Description: Nature Geoscience 8, 433 (2015). doi:10.1038/ngeo2424 Authors: Joseph Kidston, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Daniel M. Mitchell, Neal Butchart, Mark P. Baldwin & Lesley J. Gray
    Print ISSN: 1752-0894
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-0908
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2015-05-30
    Description: We propose a new multiscale method to calculate the amplitude of the gradient of the linear polarization vector, $|\nabla \boldsymbol {P}|$ , using a wavelet-based formalism. We demonstrate this method using a field of the Canadian Galactic Plane Survey and show that the filamentary structure typically seen in $|\nabla \boldsymbol {P}|$ maps depends strongly on the instrumental resolution. Our analysis reveals that different networks of filaments are present on different angular scales. The wavelet formalism allows us to calculate the power spectrum of the fluctuations seen in $|\nabla \boldsymbol {P}|$ and to determine the scaling behaviour of this quantity. The power spectrum is found to follow a power law with 2.1. We identify a small drop in power between scales of 80 l 300 arcmin, which corresponds well to the overlap in the u – v plane between the Effelsberg 100-m telescope and the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory 26-m telescope data. We suggest that this drop is due to undersampling present in the 26-m telescope data. In addition, the wavelet coefficient distributions show higher skewness on smaller scales than at larger scales. The spatial distribution of the outliers in the tails of these distributions creates a coherent subset of filaments correlated across multiple scales, which trace the sharpest changes in the polarization vector $\boldsymbol {P}$ within the field. We suggest that these structures may be associated with highly compressive shocks in the medium. The power spectrum of the field excluding these outliers shows a steeper power law with 2.5.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: Obtaining high resolution electron density height profiles for the D region of the ionosphere as a well sampled function of time is difficult for most methods of ionospheric measurement. Here we present a new method of using multi-frequency riometry data for producing D region height profiles via inverse methods. To obtain these profiles we use the nested sampling technique, implemented through our code, IONONEST. We demonstrate this approach using new data from the KAIRA instrument and consider two electron density models. We compare the recovered height profiles from the KAIRA data with those from incoherent scatter radar using data from the EISCAT instrument and find that there is good agreement between the two techniques, allowing for instrumental differences.
    Print ISSN: 0048-6604
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-799X
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2015-05-01
    Description: It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme ‘Maunder Minimum like’ grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference RCP8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (~1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.4 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small (~−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern hemisphere (NH) winter-time, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ~3-4 m s 1 , with the largest changes occurring in January-February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian low at the surface and an increase in blocking over northernEurope and the north Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern hemisphere (SH) midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution froma top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st centurycould have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2015-04-10
    Description: The interannual variability in the Baltic Sea ice cover is strongly influenced by large scale atmospheric circulation. Recent progress in forecasting of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) provides the possibility of skilful seasonal predictions of Baltic Sea ice conditions. In this paper we use a state-of-the-art forecast system to assess the predictability of the Baltic Sea annual maximum ice extent (MIE). We find a useful level of skill in retrospective forecasts initialized as early as the beginning of November. The forecast system can explain as much as 30% of the observed variability in MIE over the period 1993–2012. This skill is derived from the predictability of the NAO by using statistical relationships between the NAO and MIE in observations, while explicit simulations of sea ice have a less predictive skill. This result supports the idea that the NAO represents the main source of seasonal predictability for Northern Europe.
    Print ISSN: 1748-9318
    Electronic ISSN: 1748-9326
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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