ALBERT

Description: The exigencies of the global community toward Earth system science will increase in the future as the human population, economies, and the human footprint on the planet continue to grow. This growth, combined with intensifying urbanization, will inevitably exert increasing pressure on all ecosystem services. A unified interdisciplinary approach to Earth system science is required that can address this challenge, integrate technical demands and long-term visions, and reconcile user demands with scientific feasibility. Together with the research arms of the World Meteorological Organization, the Young Earth System Scientists community has gathered early-career scientists from around the world to initiate a discussion about frontiers of Earth system science. To provide optimal information for society, Earth system science has to provide a comprehensive understanding of the physical processes that drive the Earth system and anthropogenic influences. This understanding will be reflected in seamless prediction systems for environmental processes that are robust and instructive to local users on all scales. Such prediction systems require improved physical process understanding, more high-resolution global observations, and advanced modeling capability, as well as high-performance computing on unprecedented scales. At the same time, the robustness and usability of such prediction systems also depend on deepening our understanding of the entire Earth system and improved communication between end users and researchers. Earth system science is the fundamental baseline for understanding the Earth’s capacity to accommodate humanity, and it provides a means to have a rational discussion about the consequences and limits of anthropogenic influence on Earth. Without its progress, truly sustainable development will be impossible.

Description: The process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate modeling community. In climate models, the variety and complexity of physical processes involved, and their interplay through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, must be summarized in a series of approximate submodels. Most submodels depend on uncertain parameters. Tuning consists of adjusting the values of these parameters to bring the solution as a whole into line with aspects of the observed climate. Tuning is an essential aspect of climate modeling with its own scientific issues, which is probably not advertised enough outside the community of model developers. Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections. Here, we present the definition and rationale behind model tuning, review specific methodological aspects, and survey the diversity of tuning approaches used in current climate models. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called objective methods in climate model tuning. We discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.

Description: We discuss the current code of practice in the climate sciences to routinely create climate model ensembles as ensembles of opportunity from the newest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). We give a two-step argument to rethink this process. First, the differences between generations of ensembles corresponding to different CMIP phases in key climate quantities are not large enough to warrant an automatic separation into generational ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5. Second, we suggest that climate model ensembles cannot continue to be mere ensembles of opportunity but should always be based on a transparent scientific decision process. If ensembles can be constrained by observation, then they should be constructed as target ensembles that are specifically tailored to a physical question. If model ensembles cannot be constrained by observation, then they should be constructed as cross-generational ensembles, including all available model data to enhance structural model diversity and to better sample the underlying uncertainties. To facilitate this, CMIP should guide the necessarily ongoing process of updating experimental protocols for the evaluation and documentation of coupled models. With an emphasis on easy access to model data and facilitating the filtering of climate model data across all CMIP generations and experiments, our community could return to the underlying idea of using model data ensembles to improve uncertainty quantification, evaluation, and cross-institutional exchange.

Description: Last December, Paris was the host city for the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Representatives of 195 countries met to dispute a legally binding climate agreement – a highly complex process involving thousands of politicians, scientists and activists, that to date has taken over two decades. The director ensemble “Rimini Protokoll” re-enacted this mammoth-scale drama of diplomacy in the play “Weltklimakonferenz” (World Climate Conference) at the “Deutsches Schauspielhaus” theatre in Hamburg, Germany. Since the opening night (21st Nov. 2014), the play has been performed 16 times, reaching an audience of over 9000. All performers in the play were experts and scientists at different stages of their careers, including PhD students, journalists and professors. Each spectator took on the identity of a delegate of one of the 195 participating countries. We will present the project and the performance, thereby highlighting the role of and the interaction between the spectators and early career scientists. In a nutshell the play went as follows (https://vimeo.com/137817619); after an opening ceremony, the audience was divided up into seven groups, each of which was given advice by experts in several different briefings. These informed on country-specific challenges caused by the social and economic situation, possible future climatic changes and negotiating tactics. In addition, the delegations had bilateral meetings, enabling them to exchange views and experiences with one another. Towards the end of the play each delegation was asked to submit a national commitment to greenhouse gas reduction and a financial contribution to the Green Climate Fund. Based on these national commitments, the final plenum revealed whether or not the delegations had managed to submit reductions compatible with restricting global warming to 2°C compared to pre-industrial times. Due to their direct personal involvement in the play, each spectator was confronted with the full complexity and challenge of a climate change conference: Revealing the "culprit" - in other words the causes of climate change – is all about facts. In contrast, when developing options for action, the matter at hand is ultimately values. Which risks should the world community take on? What cost is it prepared to accept to protect the population in areas menaced by droughts or floods? These are all decisions based on political, economic, and indeed ethical issues. Based on feedback from spectators both during and after the performance, we will discuss to what extent the performance managed to convey the complexity of the question at hand and to what extent the spectators actually took on the role of their given country. The spectators were not the only ones to be put out of their comfort zone during the performance. Also the experts had to, in cooperation with the directors, think carefully on how to find the right balance between scientific integrity and a captivating dramaturgy, ultimately leading to a performance that would be informative, thought-provoking, as well as enjoyable.