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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: Contemporary climate dynamics of the circum-Caribbean region are characterised by significant precipitation variability on interannual and interdecadal timescales controlled primarily by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). However, our understanding of pre-industrial climate variability in the region is hampered by the sparse geographic distribution of palaeoclimate archives. Here, we present a high-resolution reconstruction of effective precipitation for Barbuda since the mid-16th century, based on biostratigraphic and stable isotope analyses of fossil ostracods and gastropods recovered from lake sediment cores from Freshwater Pond, the only freshwater lake on the island. We interpret episodic fluctuations in shell accumulation in the sediment record to represent changes in the balance between precipitation and evaporation during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA; ~1400–1850 CE) and Industrial (1850–present) periods. Comparisons between indices of reconstructed ENSO and AMO variability, the abundance of the freshwater gastropod Pyrgophorus parvulus and the 18 O records from ostracod calcite suggest that the relative influence of ENSO and AMO on long-term rainfall patterns in Barbuda has changed over the last 400 years. Our findings are in agreement with other high-resolution palaeoclimate studies that suggest that long-term changes in effective precipitation during the LIA were much more variable, temporally and spatially, than previously suggested.
    Print ISSN: 0959-6836
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-0911
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Sage
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2015-12-24
    Description: Terrestrial vegetation currently absorbs approximately a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, terrestrial net primary production is highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 levels and associated climatic changes. In C3 plants, which dominate terrestrial vegetation, net photosynthesis depends on the ratio between photorespiration and gross...
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-01-28
    Description: The Lower Cretaceous Goldeneye gas field lies in the Captain turbidite fairway of the Moray Firth and has recently ceased production. Its situation and dimensions have made it an excellent candidate for CO 2 sequestration. The field was extensively modelled for the original development planning when uncertainty was assessed from the perspective of volumetrics and field behaviour. The subsequent need to assess its suitability as a CO 2 store has given the opportunity for a look back at an uncertainty analysis with the benefit of full-field performance, and to perform a new analysis aimed at different issues concerning behaviour during CO 2 injection. Both sets of analyses required coupled static–dynamic modelling runs in which the key static parameter ranges of the field were varied, including depth conversion, internal geometries and aquifer properties. For the field development work the parameter ranges were explored to assess in-place volumes and field behaviour under natural aquifer and depletion drive; for the CO 2 uncertainty work, however, parameter ranges were explored to demonstrate storage capacity and CO 2 containment. The look-back showed that the field volumes indicated by production data landed in the upper part of the original uncertainty range and that there was definitive spare capacity in the field relative to the planned injection volume.
    Print ISSN: 1354-0793
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-04-15
    Description: The Lower Cretaceous Goldeneye gas field lies in the Captain turbidite fairway of the Moray Firth and has recently ceased production. Its situation and dimensions have made it an excellent candidate for CO 2 sequestration. The field was extensively modelled for the original development planning when uncertainty was assessed from the perspective of volumetrics and field behaviour. The subsequent need to assess its suitability as a CO 2 store has given the opportunity for a look back at an uncertainty analysis with the benefit of full-field performance, and to perform a new analysis aimed at different issues concerning behaviour during CO 2 injection. Both sets of analyses required coupled static–dynamic modelling runs in which the key static parameter ranges of the field were varied, including depth conversion, internal geometries and aquifer properties. For the field development work the parameter ranges were explored to assess in-place volumes and field behaviour under natural aquifer and depletion drive; for the CO 2 uncertainty work, however, parameter ranges were explored to demonstrate storage capacity and CO 2 containment. The look-back showed that the field volumes indicated by production data landed in the upper part of the original uncertainty range and that there was definitive spare capacity in the field relative to the planned injection volume.
    Print ISSN: 1354-0793
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2015-07-29
    Description: Oron (1) argues that our study (2) uses “inappropriate” methods and is framed in a way that leads “readers toward misguided conclusions.” Both of these arguments are misplaced and seem more focused on some media coverage of our article than on our article itself. Oron’s (1) specific critiques do not...
    Keywords: Letters, Sustainability Science
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2016-10-08
    Description: Despite growing recognition of the negative externalities associated with reactive nitrogen (N), the damage costs of N to air, water, and climate remain largely unquantified. We propose a comprehensive approach for estimating the social cost of nitrogen (SCN), defined as the present value of the monetary damages caused by an incremental increase in N. This framework advances N accounting by considering how each form of N causes damages at specific locations as it cascades through the environment. We apply the approach to an empirical example that estimates the SCN for N applied as fertilizer. We track impacts of N through its transformation into atmospheric and aquatic pools and estimate the distribution of associated costs to affected populations. Our results confirm that there is no uniform SCN. Instead, changes in N management will result in different N-related costs depending on where N moves and the location, vulnerability, and preferences of populations affected by N. For example, we found that the SCN per kilogram of N fertilizer applied in Minnesota ranges over several orders of magnitude, from less than $0.001/kg N to greater than $10/kg N, illustrating the importance of considering the site, the form of N, and end points of interest rather than assuming a uniform cost for damages. Our approach for estimating the SCN demonstrates the potential of integrated biophysical and economic models to illuminate the costs and benefits of N and inform more strategic and efficient N management.
    Electronic ISSN: 2375-2548
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2015-10-29
    Description: Mechanistic air pollution models are essential tools in air quality management. Widespread use of such models is hindered, however, by the extensive expertise or computational resources needed to run most models. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations – the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages – attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model (WRF-Chem) within an Eulerian modeling framework, to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. InMAP uses a variable resolution grid that focuses on human exposures by employing higher spatial resolution in urban areas and lower spatial resolution in rural and remote locations and in the upper atmosphere; and by directly calculating steady-state, annual average concentrations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates WRF-Chem predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional error (MFE) and bias (MFB) 〈 10 % and population-weighted R2 ~ 0.99. Among individual PM2.5 species, the best predictive performance is for primary PM2.5 (MFE: 16 %; MFB: 13 %) and the worst predictive performance is for particulate nitrate (MFE: 119 %; MFB: 106 %). Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. Features planned for future model releases include a larger spatial domain, more temporal information, and the ability to predict ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online.
    Print ISSN: 1991-9611
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-962X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2015-04-07
    Description: We present results from and evaluate the performance of a 12-month, 12 km horizontal resolution year 2005 air pollution simulation for the contiguous United States using the WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) meteorology and chemical transport model (CTM). We employ the 2005 US National Emissions Inventory, the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM), and the Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe (MADE) with a volatility basis set (VBS) secondary aerosol module. Overall, model performance is comparable to contemporary modeling efforts used for regulatory and health-effects analysis, with an annual average daytime ozone (O3) mean fractional bias (MFB) of 12% and an annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) MFB of −1%. WRF-Chem, as configured here, tends to overpredict total PM2.5 at some high concentration locations and generally overpredicts average 24 h O3 concentrations. Performance is better at predicting daytime-average and daily peak O3 concentrations, which are more relevant for regulatory and health effects analyses relative to annual average values. Predictive performance for PM2.5 subspecies is mixed: the model overpredicts particulate sulfate (MFB = 36%), underpredicts particulate nitrate (MFB = −110%) and organic carbon (MFB = −29%), and relatively accurately predicts particulate ammonium (MFB = 3%) and elemental carbon (MFB = 3%), so that the accuracy in total PM2.5 predictions is to some extent a function of offsetting over- and underpredictions of PM2.5 subspecies. Model predictive performance for PM2.5 and its subspecies is in general worse in winter and in the western US than in other seasons and regions, suggesting spatial and temporal opportunities for future WRF-Chem model development and evaluation.
    Print ISSN: 1991-959X
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-9603
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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