ALBERT

Description: We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10–40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500–2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50–150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Description: We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to C6-9m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Description: We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10–40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500–2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50–150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Description: Highlights • Holocene sea subsurface temperatures after Husum & Hald (2012) estimated from planktic foraminifer fauna in E Fram Strait. • Biomarkers and IP25-derived indices (including DIP25) indicate surface water variability. • Delayed onset of early Holocene conditions in subsurface (∼10.6 ka) compared to surface (∼11.7 ka) water conditions. • Warm Atlantic layer likely occupied uppermost 200 m in eastern Fram Strait between 10 and 9 ka. • Diverging late Holocene trends in surface and subsurface conditions linked to presence of strong pycnocline/stratification. Abstract Two high-resolution sediment cores from eastern Fram Strait have been investigated for sea subsurface and surface temperature variability during the Holocene (the past ca 12,000 years). The transfer function developed by Husum and Hald (2012) has been applied to sediment cores in order to reconstruct fluctuations of sea subsurface temperatures throughout the period. Additional biomarker and foraminiferal proxy data are used to elucidate variability between surface and subsurface water mass conditions, and to conclude on the Holocene climate and oceanographic variability on the West Spitsbergen continental margin. Results consistently reveal warm sea surface to subsurface temperatures of up to 6 °C until ca 5 cal ka BP, with maximum seawater temperatures around 10 cal ka BP, likely related to maximum July insolation occurring at that time. Maximum Atlantic Water (AW) advection occurred at surface and subsurface between 10.6 and 8.5 cal ka BP based on both foraminiferal and dinocyst temperature reconstructions. Probably, a less-stratified, ice-free, nutrient-rich surface ocean with strong AW advection prevailed in the eastern Fram Strait between 10 and 9 cal ka BP. Weakened AW contribution is found after ca 5 cal ka BP when subsurface temperatures strongly decrease with minimum values between ca 4 and 3 cal ka BP. Cold late Holocene conditions are furthermore supported by high planktic foraminifer shell fragmentation and high δ18O values of the subpolar planktic foraminifer species Turborotalita quinqueloba. While IP25-associated indices as well as dinocyst data suggest a sustained cooling due to a decrease in early summer insolation and consequently sea-ice increase since about 7 cal ka BP in surface waters, planktic foraminiferal data including stable isotopes indicate a slight return of stronger subsurface AW influx since ca 3 cal ka BP. The observed decoupling of surface and subsurface waters during the later Holocene is most likely attributed to a strong pycnocline layer separating cold sea-ice fed surface waters from enhanced subsurface AW advection. This may be related to changes in North Atlantic subpolar versus subtropical gyre activity.

Description: The deep and surface water paleoceanographic evolution of the central Nordic Seas over the last 20 thousand years was reconstructed using various micropaleontological, isotopic and lithological proxy data. These show a high spatial and temporal complexity of the oceanic circulation when compared with other records from the region. During early deglaciation a collapse of ice sheets surrounding the Nordic Seas released large amounts of freshwater that affected both the surface and bottom water circulation and significantly contributed to Heinrich stadial 1. During the Younger Dryas, the central Nordic Seas were affected by a last major freshwater plume which probably originated from the Arctic Ocean. When major ice rafting had ceased around 11ka subsurface temperatures started to rise. However, Atlantic Water advection and subsurface temperatures reached their maximum in the central Nordic Seas later than along the eastern continental margin. That spatio-temporal offset is explained by a gradual re-routing and westward expansion of the Atlantic Water flow during times when the Greenland Sea gyre system became more steadily established. In the Greenland Basin, the Holocene thermal maximum ended c. 5.5ka, and time-coeveal with an increase in sea-ice export from the Arctic. In the Lofoten Basin the cooling occurred later, after 4ka, and together with a weakening of the overturning processes. The Neoglacial cooling was reached c. 3ka, together with low solar irradiance, expanding sea ice and a slight decrease in deep convection. At c. 2ka subsurface temperatures began to rise again due to an increasing influence of Atlantic Waters.

Description: This work is dedicated to the study of benthic and planktonic foraminifers and is a contribution to the multidisciplinary investigations of Core PS51/154-11 from the Laptev Sea. The paleoecological analysis of foraminiferal assemblages makes it possible to reconstruct in detail environmental changes on the western continental margin of the Laptev Sea during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. The examined core dated by the AMS radiocarbon method is divided into intervals that reflect main stages in the regional evolution for the last 17.6 k.y.: early deglaciation, Bølling–Allerød warming, Younger Dryas cooling, transition to the Interglacial, Holocene climatic optimum, Middle-Late Holocene. The presence of subpolar planktonic foraminifers and benthic species Cassidulina neoteretis (Tappan) provides grounds to reconstruct for the continental slope area stages of the enhanced activity of subsurface Atlantic-derived water in the intervals of 12.0–14.7 and 0.6–5.4 ka. The benthic assemblage reflects changes in depositional environments related to the postglacial transgression and also climatic change impacts affecting bioproductivity. The events defined on the basis of foraminifers are correlated with climatic oscillations and changes in circulation of water masses.

Description: Paleoceanographical studies of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 have revealed higher-than-present sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and in parts of the Arctic but lower-than-present SSTs in the Nordic Seas, the main throughflow area of warm water into the Arctic Ocean. We resolve this contradiction by complementing SST data based on planktic foraminiferal abundances with surface salinity changes using hydrogen isotopic compositions of alkenones in a core from the central Nordic Seas. The data indicate the prevalence of a relatively cold, low-salinity, surface water layer in the Nordic Seas during most of MIS 11. In spite of the low-density surface layer, which was kept buoyant by continuous melting of surrounding glaciers, warmer Atlantic water was still propagating northward at the subsurface thus maintaining meridional overturning circulation. This study can help to better constrain the impact of continuous melting of Greenland and Arctic ice on high-latitude ocean circulation and climate.