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  • 1
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Demystifying climate models : a users guide to earth system models (2016)
    Berlin : Springer Open
    Details Availability
    Call number: PIK N 456-19-93012
    Keywords: Klima ; Modell ; Klima ; Modell
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: xvii, 274 Seiten , Illustrationen, Diagramme , 23.5 cm x 15.5 cm
    ISBN: 3662489570 , 9783662489574 , 9783662489598 (electronic)
    Series Statement: Earth systems data and models volume 2
    URL: http://www.springer.com/
    URL: Inhaltstext
    URL: Inhaltsverzeichnis
    Language: English
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Branch Library: PIK Library
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  • 2
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    Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo (2017)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-26
    Description: Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), previous studies have used the sensitivity of theNdto aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol and cloud properties in the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of theNdto anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol–climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms betweenNdand aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. The accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol–cloud interactions in satellite data.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 3
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    100 Years of Earth System Model Development (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2019-01-01
    Description: Today’s global Earth system models began as simple regional models of tropospheric weather systems. Over the past century, the physical realism of the models has steadily increased, while the scope of the models has broadened to include the global troposphere and stratosphere, the ocean, the vegetated land surface, and terrestrial ice sheets. This chapter gives an approximately chronological account of the many and profound conceptual and technological advances that made today’s models possible. For brevity, we omit any discussion of the roles of chemistry and biogeochemistry, and terrestrial ice sheets.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3646
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    Challenges in constraining anthropogenic aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing using present-day spatiotemporal variability (2016)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-02-26
    Description: A large number of processes are involved in the chain from emissions of aerosol precursor gases and primary particles to impacts on cloud radiative forcing. Those processes are manifest in a number of relationships that can be expressed as factors dlnX/dlnY driving aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing. These factors include the relationships between cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and emissions, droplet number and CCN concentration, cloud fraction and droplet number, cloud optical depth and droplet number, and cloud radiative forcing and cloud optical depth. The relationship between cloud optical depth and droplet number can be further decomposed into the sum of two terms involving the relationship of droplet effective radius and cloud liquid water path with droplet number. These relationships can be constrained using observations of recent spatial and temporal variability of these quantities. However, we are most interested in the radiative forcing since the preindustrial era. Because few relevant measurements are available from that era, relationships from recent variability have been assumed to be applicable to the preindustrial to present-day change. Our analysis of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) model simulations suggests that estimates of relationships from recent variability are poor constraints on relationships from anthropogenic change for some terms, with even the sign of some relationships differing in many regions. Proxies connecting recent spatial/temporal variability to anthropogenic change, or sustained measurements in regions where emissions have changed, are needed to constrain estimates of anthropogenic aerosol impacts on cloud radiative forcing.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 5
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    Parametric behaviors of CLUBB in simulations of low clouds in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) (2015)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-06-07
    Description: In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of simulated low clouds to 14 selected tunable parameters of Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB), a higher order closure (HOC) scheme, and 4 parameters of the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) deep convection scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). A Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sampling approach is adopted to effectively explore the high-dimensional parameter space and a generalized linear model is applied to study the responses of simulated cloud fields to tunable parameters. Our results show that the variance in simulated low-cloud properties (cloud fraction and liquid water path) can be explained by the selected tunable parameters in two different ways: macrophysics itself and its interaction with microphysics. First, the parameters related to dynamic and thermodynamic turbulent structure and double Gaussian closure are found to be the most influential parameters for simulating low clouds. The spatial distributions of the parameter contributions show clear cloud-regime dependence. Second, because of the coupling between cloud macrophysics and cloud microphysics, the coefficient of the dissipation term in the total water variance equation is influential. This parameter affects the variance of in-cloud cloud water, which further influences microphysical process rates, such as autoconversion, and eventually low-cloud fraction. This study improves understanding of HOC behavior associated with parameter uncertainties and provides valuable insights for the interaction of macrophysics and microphysics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Electronic ISSN: 1942-2466
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
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    Simulated climatology and evolution of aridity in the 21st century (2015)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-05-31
    Description: Future changes in aridity, defined as the ratio of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), are analyzed using simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) and the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) during the period 1980–2080. Both CESM and CMIP5 ensembles can reproduce the observed temporal and spatial variability of aridity. On the interannual time scale, annual average PET is sensitive to the variability of relative humidity, net surface energy flux, and surface air temperature while the precipitation variability is the dominant component of annual average aridity sensitivity. For the long-term trends, differences between the two ensembles illustrate that the impact of the internal variability is smaller than that of the model structural uncertainty with the trends from the CMIP5 ensemble of models having a much larger spread than those from the single model CESM-LE. The annual mean aridity averaged over global land increases (becomes drier) by 6.4% in 2055–2080 relative to 1980–2005. Aridity trends differ by region in the ensemble mean. In the future, increasing precipitation leads to decreasing aridity over northwest China and central (or tropical) Africa, while decreasing precipitation leads to drying (increasing aridity) in the sub-tropics, northern and southern Africa and the Amazon. Increases in PET can lead to increasing aridity even in regions with increasing precipitation.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 7
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    Assessment of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Simulations in the CAM with CLUBB and Updated Microphysics Scheme Based on ARM Observations from the Azores (2016)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-06-21
    Description: To assess marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud simulations in three versions of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), three sets of short-term global hindcasts are performed and compared to Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program observations on Graciosa Island in the Azores from June 2009 to December 2010. The three versions consist of CAM5.3 with default schemes (CAM5.3), CAM5.3 with Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB-MG1), and CAM5.3 with CLUBB and updated microphysics scheme (CLUBB-MG2). Our results show that relative to CAM5.3 default schemes, simulations with CLUBB better represent MBL cloud-base height, the height of the major cloud layer, and the daily cloud cover variability. CLUBB also better simulates the relationship of cloud fraction to cloud liquid water path (LWP) most likely due to CLUBB's consistent treatment of these variables through a probability distribution function (PDF) approach. Sub-cloud evaporation of precipitation is substantially enhanced in simulations with CLUBB-MG2 and is more realistic based on the limited observational estimate. Despite these improvements, all model versions underestimate MBL cloud cover. CLUBB-MG2 reduces biases in in-cloud LWP (clouds are not too bright) but there are still too few of MBL clouds due to an underestimate in the frequency of overcast scenes. Thus combining CLUBB with MG2 scheme better simulates MBL cloud processes, but because biases remain in MBL cloud cover CLUBB-MG2 does not improve the simulation of the surface shortwave cloud radiative effect ( CRE SW ).
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 8
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    Icelandic volcanic emissions and climate (2015)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-01
    Description: Nature Geoscience 8, 243 (2015). doi:10.1038/ngeo2376 Authors: Andrew Gettelman, Anja Schmidt & Jón Egill Kristjánsson
    Print ISSN: 1752-0894
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-0908
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 9
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    Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols (2016)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-01-06
    Description: Aridity Index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. Here we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO 4 ) aerosols with Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate of 0.9% per °C of global mean surface temperature (SAT) increase (moderate drying) while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO 4 forcing is negative, and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7% per °C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO 4 aerosol cooling by 6.3% per °C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus SO 4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4% per °C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO 4 both contribute to the 20th century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicate that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC and SO 4 -induced PET change.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 10
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    Changes in terrestrial aridity for the period 850-2080 from the Community Earth System Model (2016)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-03-10
    Description: This study examines changes in terrestrial aridity due to both natural and anthropogenic forcing for the period 850-2080 by analyzing the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble simulations for 850-2005 (CESM-LME) and the CESM Large Ensemble simulations for 1920-2080 (CESM-LE). We compare terrestrial aridity in the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) (950-1250) with that in the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1550-1850), present day (PD) (1950-2005) with the last millennium (LM) (850-1850), and the future (F8.5) (2050-2080) with the LM, to place anthropogenic changes in the context of changes due to natural forcings. The aridity index defined as the ratio of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration, averaged over land, becomes smaller (i.e., a drier terrestrial climate) by 0.34% for MWP versus LIA (MWP-LIA), 1.4% for PD versus LM (PD-LM), and 7.8% for F8.5 versus LM (F8.5-LM). The change of terrestrial-mean aridity in PD-LM and F8.5-LM due to anthropogenic forcing is thus four and twenty times of that from MWP-LIA due to natural forcing, respectively. It is shown that a drier climate in PD than LM is largely due to a decrease of precipitation while a drier climate in F8.5 than LM, and MWP than LIA, is mainly caused by an increase of temperature. The terrestrial-mean aridity change in PD-LM is, however, largely driven by greenhouse gas increases as in F8.5-LM. This is because anthropogenic aerosols have a small effect on terrestrial-mean aridity but at the same time they totally alter the attributions of aridity changes to meteorological variables by causing large negative anomalies in surface air temperature, available energy, and precipitation. Different from MWP-LIA and F8.5-LM, there are large spatial inhomogeneities in P/PET changes for PD-LM in both magnitudes and signs, caused by anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, and land surface changes. The changes of terrestrial-mean P and P-E (precipitation minus evaporation) for 850-2080 are also examined. The relative changes in P ( P-E ) are 0.4% (0.6%) for MWP-LIA, -2.6% (-3.8%) for PD-LM, and 4.7% (11.8%) for F8.5-LM. The signs of changes in P-E and P are the same.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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