ALBERT

Description: Greenhouse gas (GHG) additions to Earth's atmosphere initially reduce global outgoing longwave radiation, thereby warming the planet. In select environments with temperature inversions, however, increased GHG concentrations can actually increase local outgoing longwave radiation. Negative top of atmosphere and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from this situation give the impression that local surface temperatures could cool in response to GHG increases. Here we consider an extreme scenario in which GHG concentrations are increased only within the warmest layers of winter near-surface inversions of the Arctic and Antarctic. We find, using a fully coupled Earth system model, that the underlying surface warms despite the GHG addition exerting negative ERF and cooling the troposphere in the vicinity of the GHG increase. This unique radiative forcing and thermal response is facilitated by the high stability of the polar winter atmosphere, which inhibit thermal mixing and amplify the impact of surface radiative forcing on surface temperature. These findings also suggest that strategies to exploit negative ERF via injections of short-lived GHGs into inversion layers would likely be unsuccessful in cooling the planetary surface. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Description: We present an observationally constrained United States black carbon emission inventory with explicit representation of activity and technology between 1960 and 2000. We compare measured coefficient of haze data in California and New Jersey between 1965 and 2000 with predicted concentration trends and attribute discrepancies between observations and predicted concentrations among several sources based on seasonal and weekly patterns in observations. Emission factors for sources with distinct fuel trends are then estimated by comparing fuel and concentration trends and further substantiated by in-depth examination of emission measurements. We recommend (1) increasing emission factors for preregulation vehicles by 80–250%; (2) increasing emission factors for residential heating stoves and boilers by 70% to 200% for 1980s and before; (3) explicitly representing naturally aspired off-road engines for 1980s and before; and (4) explicitly representing certified wood stoves after 1985. We also evaluate other possible sources for discrepancy between model and measurement, including bias in modeled meteorology, subgrid spatial heterogeneity of concentrations, and inconsistencies in reported fuel consumption. The updated U.S. emissions are higher than the a priori estimate by 80% between 1960 and 1980, totaling 690 Gg/year in 1960 and 620 Gg/year in 1970 (excluding open burning). The revised inventory shows a strongly decreasing trend that was present in the observations but missing in the a priori inventory. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Description: Black carbon (BC) concentrations observed in 22 snowpits sampled in the northwest sector of the Greenland ice sheet in April 2014 have allowed us to identify a strong and widespread BC aerosol deposition event, which was dated to have accumulated in the pits from two snow storms between 27 July and 2 August 2013. This event comprises a significant portion (57% on average across all pits) of total BC deposition over 10 months (July 2013 to April 2014). Here we link this deposition event to forest fires burning in Canada during summer 2013 using modeling and remote sensing tools. Aerosols were detected by both the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (on board CALIPSO) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Aqua) instruments during transport between Canada and Greenland. We use high-resolution regional chemical transport modeling (WRF-Chem) combined with high-resolution fire emissions (FINNv1.5) to study aerosol emissions, transport, and deposition during this event. The model captures the timing of the BC deposition event and shows that fires in Canada were the main source of deposited BC. However, the model underpredicts BC deposition compared to measurements at all sites by a factor of 2–100. Underprediction of modeled BC deposition originates from uncertainties in fire emissions and model treatment of wet removal of aerosols. Improvements in model descriptions of precipitation scavenging and emissions from wildfires are needed to correctly predict deposition, which is critical for determining the climate impacts of aerosols that originate from fires. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Description: The shortwave cryosphere radiative effect (CrRE) is the instantaneous influence of snow and ice cover on Earth's top-of-atmosphere (TOA) solar energy budget. Here, we apply measurements from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), combined with microwave retrievals of snow presence and radiative kernels produced from four different models, to derive CrRE over global land during 2001–2013. We estimate global annual-mean land CrRE during this period of −2.6 W m−2, with variations from −2.2 to −3.0 W m−2 resulting from use of different kernels and variations of −2.4 to −2.6 W m−2 resulting from different algorithmic determinations of snow presence and surface albedo. Slightly more than half of the global land CrRE originates from perennial snow on Antarctica, whereas the majority of the northern hemispheric effect originates from seasonal snow. Consequently, the northern hemispheric land CrRE peaks at −6.0 W m−2 in April, whereas the southern hemispheric effect more closely follows the austral insolation cycle, peaking at −9.0 W m−2 in December. Mountain glaciers resolved in 0.05° MODIS data contribute about −0.037 W m−2 (1.4 %) of the global effect, with the majority (94 %) of this contribution originating from the Himalayas. Interannual trends in the global annual-mean land CrRE are not statistically significant during the MODIS era, but trends are positive (less negative) over large areas of northern Asia, especially during spring, and slightly negative over Antarctica, possibly due to increased snowfall. During a common overlap period of 2001–2008, our MODIS estimates of the northern hemispheric land CrRE are about 18 % smaller (less negative) than previous estimates derived from coarse-resolution AVHRR data, though interannual variations are well correlated (r = 0.78), indicating that these data are useful in determining longer-term trends in land CrRE.

Description: Cryosphere Radiative Effect (CrRE) is the instantaneous influence of snow- and ice-cover on Earth's top of atmosphere (TOA) solar energy budget. Here, we apply measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), combined with microwave retrievals of snow presence and radiative kernels produced from 4 different models, to derive CrRE over global land during 2001–2013. We estimate global annual mean land CrRE during this period of −2.6 W m-2, with variations from −2.2 to −3.0 W m-2 resulting from use of different kernels, and variations of −2.4 to −2.6 W m-2 resulting from different algorithmic determinations of snow presence and surface albedo. Slightly more than half of the global land CrRE originates from perennial snow on Antarctica, whereas the majority of the Northern Hemisphere effect originates from seasonal snow. Consequently, the Northern Hemisphere land CrRE peaks at −6.0 W m-2 in April, whereas the Southern Hemisphere effect more closely follows the austral insolation cycle, peaking in December. Mountain glaciers resolved in 0.05° MODIS data contribute about −0.037 W m-2 (1.4 %) of the global effect, with the majority (94 %) of this contribution originating from the Himalayas. Inter-annual trends in the global annual mean land CrRE are not statistically significant during the MODIS era, but trends are positive (less negative) over large areas of Northern Asia, especially during spring, and slightly negative over Antarctica, possibly due to increased snowfall. During a common overlap period of 2001–2008, our MODIS estimates of the Northern Hemisphere land CrRE are about 18 % smaller (less negative) than previous estimates derived from coarse-resolution AVHRR data, though inter-annual variations are well correlated (r = 0.78), indicating that these data are useful in determining longer term trends in land CrRE.

Description: The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of two years (2008–2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry-transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry-climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC/rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to past comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January-March underestimated by 59 and 37% for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44% for July–September), but with over- as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is three times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modelling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution.

Description: The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of 2 years (2008–2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC or rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to previous comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January–March underestimated by 59 and 37 % for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44 % for July–September), but with overestimates as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is 3 times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modeling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution.