ALBERT

Description: The midwinter 2015/2016 was characterized by an unusually strong polar night jet (PNJ) and extraordinarily large stationary planetary wave (SPW) amplitudes in the subtropical mesosphere. The aim of this study is, therefore, to find the origin of these mesospheric SPWs in the midwinter 2015/2016 study period. The study duration is split into two periods: the first period runs from late December 2015 until early January 2016 (Period I), and the second period from early January until mid-January 2016 (Period II). While the SPW 1 dominates in the subtropical mesosphere in Period I, it is the SPW 2 that dominates in Period II. There are three possibilities explaining how SPWs can occur in the mesosphere: (1) they propagate upward from the stratosphere, (2) they are generated in situ by longitudinally variable gravity wave (GW) drag, or (3) they are generated in situ by barotropic and/or baroclinic instabilities. Using global satellite observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) the origin of the mesospheric SPWs is investigated for both time periods. We find that due to the strong PNJ the SPWs were not able to propagate upward into the mesosphere northward of 50∘ N but were deflected upward and equatorward into the subtropical mesosphere. We show that the SPWs observed in the subtropical mesosphere are the same SPWs as in the mid-latitudinal stratosphere. Simultaneously, we find evidence that the mesospheric SPWs in polar latitudes were generated in situ by longitudinally variable GW drag and that there is a mixture of in situ generation by longitudinally variable GW drag and by instabilities at mid-latitudes. Our results, based on observations, show that the abovementioned three mechanisms can act at the same time which confirms earlier model studies. Additionally, the possible contribution from, or impact of, unusually strong SPWs in the subtropical mesosphere to the disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the same winter is discussed.

Description: The stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes.

Description: Geopotential height measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder between 9‐ and 97‐km altitudes during 2004–2018 are used to examine long‐period (3–20 days) wave activity during the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring, with the primary focus on the response of normal mode Rossby waves in the middle atmosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Unusually large westward propagating waves with Zonal Wave Number 1 and period ∼10 days are observed at 55° latitude at the stratopause height (∼48 km) and above following final warmings of 2016, 2015, and 2005. In each case, large‐amplitude waves are observed for the duration of two to three wave cycles. Characteristics of the waves are in conformity with the second antisymmetric Rossby normal mode of Zonal Wave Number 1, or the quasi‐10‐day wave. The growth rate of the waves is significantly greater than the classical normal mode in the upper stratosphere (approximately 30–50 km) where instability conditions are met, indicating the amplification or excitation of the waves in that region. The response of the quasi‐10‐day wave during midwinter SSWs, and also during the spring transition without an SSW, is not as obvious as the wave response during final warmings. The results suggest that not only the occurrence of SSW but also the seasonal timing of SSW is an important factor for the transient variability of the quasi‐10‐day wave in the middle atmosphere.

Description: This work presents a connection between the density variation within the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and changes in the intensity of solar radiation. On a seasonal timescale, these changes take place due to the revolution of the Earth around the Sun. While the Earth, during the northern-hemispheric (NH) winter, is closer to the Sun, the upper mesosphere expands due to an increased radiation intensity, which results in changes in density at these heights. These density variations, i.e., a vertical redistribution of atmospheric mass, have an effect on the rotation rate of Earth's upper atmosphere owing to angular momentum conservation. In order to test this effect, we applied a theoretical model, which shows a decrease in the atmospheric rotation speed of about ∼4 m s−1 at a latitude of 45∘ in the case of a density change of 1 % between 70 and 100 km. To support this statement, we compare the wind variability obtained from meteor radar (MR) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations with fluctuations in the length of a day (LOD). Changes in the LOD on timescales of a year and less are primarily driven by tropospheric large-scale geophysical processes and their impact on the Earth's rotation. A global increase in lower-atmospheric eastward-directed winds leads, due to friction with the Earth's surface, to an acceleration of the Earth's rotation by up to a few milliseconds per rotation. The LOD shows an increase during northern winter and decreases during summer, which corresponds to changes in the MLT density due to the Earth–Sun movement. Within the MLT the mean zonal wind shows similar fluctuations to the LOD on annual scales as well as longer time series, which are connected to the seasonal wind regime as well as to density changes excited by variations in the solar radiation. A direct correlation between the local measured winds and the LOD on shorter timescales cannot clearly be identified, due to stronger influences of other natural oscillations on the wind. Further, we show that, even after removing the seasonal and 11-year solar cycle variations, the mean zonal wind and the LOD are connected by analyzing long-term tendencies for the years 2005–2016.