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  • 1
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (21). 11,166-11,173.
    Publication Date: 2020-06-29
    Description: The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing ENSO phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 2
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 30 (22). pp. 9321-9337.
    Publication Date: 2020-08-04
    Description: In the present study, the influence of some major tropical modes of variability on northern hemisphere regional blocking frequency variability during boreal winter is investigated. Reanalysis data and an ensemble experiment with the ECMWF model using relaxation towards the ERA-Interim reanalysis data inside the tropics are used. The tropical modes under investigation are El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the upper tropospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal wind . An early (late) MJO phase refers to the part of the MJO cycle when enhanced (suppressed) precipitation occurs over the western Indian Ocean and suppressed (enhanced) precipitation occurs over the Maritime Continent and the western tropical Pacific. Over the North Pacific sector, it is found that enhanced (suppressed) high latitude blocking occurs in association with El Niño (La Niña) events, late (early) MJO phases and westerly (easterly) . Over central to southern Europe and the east Atlantic, it is found that late MJO phases, as well as a suppressed MJO are leading to enhanced blocking frequency. Furthermore, early (late) MJO phases are followed by blocking anomalies over the western North Atlantic region, similar to those associated with a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation. Over northern Europe, the easterly (westerly) phase of is associated with enhanced (suppressed) blocking. These results are largely confirmed by both the reanalysis and the model experiment.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
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    In:  [Talk] In: MiKlip2 7 th Status Meeting Module A - Recommendations for DS5, 05.09.2017, Hamburg, Germany .
    Publication Date: 2018-10-02
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 4
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography, 48 (4). pp. 757-771.
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: The Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) associated with the Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) in the western subtropical South Pacific is known to exhibit substantial seasonal and decadal variability. Using an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model, which is able to reproduce the observed, salient features of the seasonal cycles of shear, stratification, baroclinic production and the associated EKE, we investigate the decadal changes of EKE. We show that the STCC region exhibits, uniquely among the subtropical gyres of the world’s oceans, significant, atmospherically forced, decadal EKE variability. The decadal variations are driven by changing vertical shear between the STCC in the upper 300 m and the South Equatorial Current below, predominantly caused by variations in STCC strength associated with a changing meridional density gradient. In the 1970s, an increased meridional density gradient results in EKE twice as large as in later decades in the model. Utilizing sensitivity experiments, decadal variations in the wind field are shown to be the essential driver. Local wind stress curl anomalies associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) lead to up- and downwelling of the thermocline, inducing strengthening or weakening of the STCC and the associated EKE. Additionally, remote wind stress curl anomalies in the eastern subtropical South Pacific, which are not related to the IPO, generate density anomalies that propagate westward as Rossby waves and can account for up to 30–40 % of the density anomalies in the investigated region.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
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    In:  [Talk] In: EGU General Assembly 2017, 23.-28.04.2017, Vienna, Austria .
    Publication Date: 2017-04-28
    Description: The dynamics and temporal evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is investigated in a coupled climate model. The model contains a correction to the North Atlantic flow field to improve the path of the North Atlantic Current, thereby alleviating the surface cold bias, a common problem with climate models, and offering a unique opportunity to study the AMV in a model. Changes in greenhouse gas forcing or aerosol loading are not considered. A striking feature of our results is the contrast between the western and eastern sides of the subpolar gyre in the model. On the western side, heat supply from the ocean plays a major role, with most of this heat being given up to the atmosphere in the warm phase, largely symmetrically about the time of the AMV maximum. By contrast, on the eastern side, the ocean gains heat from the atmosphere, with relatively little role for ocean heat supply in the years before the AMV maximum. Thereafter, the balance changes with heat now being removed from the eastern side by the ocean leading to a reducing ocean heat content, behavior we associate with the establishment of an intergyre gyre at the time of the AMV maximum. In the warm phase, melting sea-ice leads to a freshening of surface waters northeast of Greenland which travel southward into the Irminger and Labrador Sea, shutting down convection and terminating the AMV warm phase.
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The variability of the zonal circulation along the equator in the Atlantic Ocean is dominated by the seasonal cycle and the presence of the equatorial deep jets (EDJs). The seasonal cycle is externally driven by surface wind variability, however the mechanism which generates and maintains the EDJs against dissipation is not fully understood yet. Additionally, intra-seasonal stochastic variability, the tropical instability waves (TIWs), is generated in the upper ocean by both baroclinic and barotropic instability. The intra-seasonal energy at the equator reaches to depths of about 2000 m. We argue that the intra-seasonal variability gets distorted by the presence of the lower frequency zonal velocity variability. This causes a systematic convergence of intra-seasonal momentum flux such that the seasonal cycle and the EDJs are maintained against dissipation. The presence of this mechanism is demonstrated from two OGCM simulations and moored observations at 23W in the equatorial Atlantic.
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-11-09
    Description: The sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Atlantic exhibits pronounced variability on interannual time scales being associated with wind and rainfall anomalies within the tropical Atlantic region. It has been proposed that the interannual variability of SST is partly driven by the variability of the deep equatorial zonal circulation, the so-called equatorial deep jets (EDJs). The EDJs may be described as a superposition of quasi-resonant equatorial basin modes and the direction of vertical phase propagation implies that their energy is propagating towards the surface. Furthermore, recent findings revealed that the EDJs in turn are maintained by intra-seasonal waves that are generated by the barotropic and baroclinic instability of the near-surface circulation. This talk will present the relevant mechanisms that are involved in the conversion of energy from one type of variability to another, i.e. from chaotic intra-seasonal surface variability via deep interannual zonal variability to interannual surface climate variability, with a special focus on the maintenance of the EDJs by intra-seasonal waves. Since EDJs, a key component of the mechanism discussed above, are not well represented in state-of-the-art Ocean General Circulation Models, preliminary findings on the sensitivity of the EDJs to model parameters and configuration are presented.
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: slideshow
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  • 8
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123 (3). pp. 2037-2048.
    Publication Date: 2021-03-19
    Description: Monthly mean sea level anomalies in the tropical Pacific for the period 1961-2002 are reconstructed using a linear, multi-mode model driven by monthly mean wind stress anomalies from the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis products. Overall, the sea level anomalies reconstructed by both wind stress products agree well with the available tide gauge data, although with poor performance at Kanton Island in the western-central equatorial Pacific and reduced amplitude at Christmas Island. The reduced performance is related to model error in locating the pivot point in sea level variability associated with the so-called “tilt” mode. We present evidence that the pivot point was further west during the period 1993-2014 than during the period 1961-2002 and attribute this to a persistent upward trend in the zonal wind stress variance along the equator west of 160° W throughout the period 1961-2014. Experiments driven by the zonal component of the wind stress alone reproduce much of the trend in sea level found in the experiments driven by both components of the wind stress. The experiments show an upward trend in sea level in the eastern tropical Pacific over the period 1961-2002, but with a much stronger upward trend when using the NCEP/NCAR product. We argue that the latter is related to an overly strong eastward trend in zonal wind stress in the eastern-central Pacific that is believed to be a spurious feature of the NCEP/NCAR product.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Low prediction skill in the tropical Pacific is a common problem in decadal prediction systems, especially for lead years 2–5 which, in many systems, is lower than in uninitialized experiments. On the other hand, the tropical Pacific is of almost worldwide climate relevance through its teleconnections with other tropical and extratropical regions and also of importance for global mean temperature. Understanding the causes of the reduced prediction skill is thus of major interest for decadal climate predictions. We look into the problem of reduced prediction skill by analyzing the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcasts for the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and performing a sensitivity experiment in which hindcasts are initialized from a model run forced only by surface wind stress. In both systems, sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is successfully initialized, but most skill is lost at lead years 2–5. Utilizing the sensitivity experiment enables us to pin down the reason for the reduced prediction skill in MPI-ESM to errors in wind stress used for the initialization. A spurious trend in the wind stress forcing displaces the equatorial thermocline in MPI-ESM unrealistically. When the climate model is then switched into its forecast mode, the recovery process triggers artificial El Niño and La Niña events at the surface. Our results demonstrate the importance of realistic wind stress products for the initialization of decadal predictions
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 10
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122 (1). pp. 602-616.
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: A multi-mode, linear reduced-gravity model, driven by ERA-Interim monthly mean wind stress anomalies, is used to investigate interannual variability in tropical Pacific sea level as seen in satellite altimeter data. The model output is fitted to the altimeter data along the equator, in order to derive the vertical profile for the model forcing, showing that a signature from modes higher than mode six cannot be extracted from the altimeter data. It is shown that the model has considerable skill at capturing interannual sea level variability both on and off the equator. The correlation between modelled and satellite-derived sea level data exceeds 0.8 over a wide range of longitudes along the equator and readily captures the observed ENSO events. Overall, the combination of the first, second, third and fifth modes can provide a robust estimate of the interannual sea level variability, the second mode being dominant. A remarkable feature of both the model and the altimeter data is the presence of a pivot point in the western Pacific on the equator. We show that the westward displacement of the pivot point from the centre of the basin is strongly influenced by the fact that most of the wind stress variance is found in the western part of the basin. We also show that the Sverdrup transport is not fundamental to the dynamics of the recharge/discharge mechanism in our model, although the spatial structure of the wind forcing does play a role in setting the amplitude of the “warm water volume”.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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