Publikationsdatum:
2015-10-22
Beschreibung:
In this manuscript, we introduce a framework for developing earthquake forecasts using Virtual Quake (VQ), the generalized successor to the perhaps better known Virtual California (VC) earthquake simulator. We discuss the basic merits and mechanics of the simulator, and we present several statistics of interest for earthquake forecasting. We also show that, though the system as a whole (in aggregate) behaves quite randomly, (simulated) earthquake sequences limited to specific fault sections exhibit measurable predictability in the form of increasing seismicity precursory to large m 〉 7 earthquakes. In order to quantify this, we develop an alert-based forecasting metric, and show that it exhibits significant information gain compared to random forecasts. We also discuss the long-standing question of activation versus quiescent type earthquake triggering. We show that VQ exhibits both behaviours separately for independent fault sections; some fault sections exhibit activation type triggering, while others are better characterized by quiescent type triggering. We discuss these aspects of VQ specifically with respect to faults in the Salton Basin and near the El Mayor-Cucapah region in southern California, USA and northern Baja California Norte, Mexico.
Schlagwort(e):
Seismology
Print ISSN:
0956-540X
Digitale ISSN:
1365-246X
Thema:
Geologie und Paläontologie
Publiziert von
Oxford University Press
im Namen von
The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
