ALBERT

Description: A technique for estimating the age–depth relationship in an ice core and evaluating its uncertainty is presented. The age–depth relationship is determined by the accumulation of snow at the site of the ice core and the thinning process as a result of the deformation of ice layers. However, since neither the accumulation rate nor the thinning process is fully known, it is essential to incorporate observational information into a model that describes the accumulation and thinning processes. In the proposed technique, the age as a function of depth is estimated by making use of age markers and δ18O data. The age markers provide reliable age information at several depths. The data of δ18O are used as a proxy of the temperature for estimating the accumulation rate. The estimation is achieved using the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method, which is a combination of the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In this hybrid method, the posterior distributions for the parameters in the models for the accumulation and thinning process are computed using the Metropolis method, in which the likelihood is obtained with the SMC method, and the posterior distribution for the age as a function of depth is obtained by collecting the samples generated by the SMC method with Metropolis iterations. The use of this PMCMC method enables us to estimate the age–depth relationship without assuming either linearity or Gaussianity. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by applying it to ice core data from Dome Fuji in Antarctica.

Description: The penultimate deglaciation (PDG, ∼138–128 thousand years before present, hereafter ka) is the transition from the penultimate glacial maximum (PGM) to the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼129–116 ka). The LIG stands out as one of the warmest interglacials of the last 800 000 years (hereafter kyr), with high-latitude temperature warmer than today and global sea level likely higher by at least 6 m. Considering the transient nature of the Earth system, the LIG climate and ice-sheet evolution were certainly influenced by the changes occurring during the penultimate deglaciation. It is thus important to investigate, with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), the climate and environmental response to the large changes in boundary conditions (i.e. orbital configuration, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, ice-sheet geometry and associated meltwater fluxes) occurring during the penultimate deglaciation. A deglaciation working group has recently been set up as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, with a protocol to perform transient simulations of the last deglaciation (19–11 ka; although the protocol covers 26–0 ka). Similar to the last deglaciation, the disintegration of continental ice sheets during the penultimate deglaciation led to significant changes in the oceanic circulation during Heinrich Stadial 11 (∼136–129 ka). However, the two deglaciations bear significant differences in magnitude and temporal evolution of climate and environmental changes. Here, as part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES)-PMIP working group on Quaternary interglacials (QUIGS), we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation under the auspices of PMIP4. This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. This experiment is designed for AOGCMs to assess the coupled response of the climate system to all forcings. Additional sensitivity experiments are proposed to evaluate the response to each forcing. Finally, a selection of paleo-records representing different parts of the climate system is presented, providing an appropriate benchmark for upcoming model–data comparisons across the penultimate deglaciation.

Description: The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 thousand years before present, hereafter ka) is the transition from the penultimate glacial maximum to the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~ 129–116 ka). The LIG stands out as one of the warmest interglacials of the last 800 ka, with high-latitude temperature warmer than today and global sea level likely higher by at least 6 meters. The LIG therefore receives ever-growing attention, in particular to identify mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for such regional warmth that is comparable to that expected before 2100. Considering the transient nature of the Earth system, the LIG climate and ice-sheets evolution were certainly influenced by the changes occurring during the penultimate deglaciation. It is thus important to investigate the climate and environmental response to the large changes in boundary conditions (i.e. orbital configuration, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, ice sheet geometry) occurring during this time interval. A deglaciation working group has recently been set up as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, with a protocol to perform transient simulations of the last deglaciation (19–11 ka). Similar to the last deglaciation, the disintegration of continental ice-sheets during the penultimate deglaciation led to significant changes in the oceanic circulation during Heinrich Stadial 11 (~ 136–129 ka). However, the two deglaciations bear significant differences in magnitude and temporal evolution of climate and environmental changes. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation to complement the PMIP4 effort. This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice-sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice-sheets. This experiment is designed to assess the coupled response of the climate system to all forcings. Additional sensitivity experiments are proposed to evaluate the response to each forcing. Finally, a selection of paleo records representing different parts of the climate system is presented, providing an appropriate benchmark for upcoming model-data comparisons across the penultimate deglaciation.

Description: The penultimate deglaciation (PDG, ~ 138–128 thousand years before present, hereafter ka) is the transition from the penultimate glacial maximum to the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~ 129–116 ka). The LIG stands out as one of the warmest interglacials of the last 800 ka, with high-latitude temperature warmer than today and global sea level likely higher by at least 6 meters. Considering the transient nature of the Earth system, the LIG climate and ice-sheets evolution were certainly influenced by the changes occurring during the penultimate deglaciation. It is thus important to investigate, with coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), the climate and environmental response to the large changes in boundary conditions (i.e. orbital configuration, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, ice-sheet geometry, and associated meltwater fluxes) occurring during the penultimate deglaciation. A deglaciation working group has recently been set up as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, with a protocol to perform transient simulations of the last deglaciation (19–11 ka; although the protocol covers 26–0 ka). Similar to the last deglaciation, the disintegration of continental ice-sheets during the penultimate deglaciation led to significant changes in the oceanic circulation during Heinrich Stadial 11 (~ 136–129 ka). However, the two deglaciations bear significant differences in magnitude and temporal evolution of climate and environmental changes. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation under the auspices of PMIP4. This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice-sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice-sheets. This experiment is designed for AOGCMs to assess the coupled response of the climate system to all forcings. Additional sensitivity experiments are proposed to evaluate the response to each forcing. Finally, a selection of paleo records representing different parts of the climate system is presented, providing an appropriate benchmark for upcoming model-data comparisons across the penultimate deglaciation.