Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
Several recently published reports have suggested
that semi-stationary linear-cloud formations might be
causally precursory to earthquakes.We examine the report of
Guangmeng and Jie (2013), who claim to have predicted the
2012 M6:0 earthquake in the Po Valley of northern Italy after
seeing a satellite photograph (a digital image) showing a
linear-cloud formation over the eastern Apennine Mountains
of central Italy. From inspection of 4 years of satellite images
we find numerous examples of linear-cloud formations over
Italy. A simple test shows no obvious statistical relationship
between the occurrence of these cloud formations and earthquakes
that occurred in and around Italy. All of the linearcloud
formations we have identified in satellite images, including
that which Guangmeng and Jie (2013) claim to have
used to predict the 2012 earthquake, appear to be orographic
– formed by the interaction of moisture-laden wind flowing
over mountains. Guangmeng and Jie (2013) have not clearly
stated how linear-cloud formations can be used to predict the
size, location, and time of an earthquake, and they have not
published an account of all of their predictions (including
any unsuccessful predictions). We are skeptical of the validity
of the claim by Guangmeng and Jie (2013) that they have
managed to predict any earthquakes.
Description:
Published
Description:
1061–1068
Description:
1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
open
Keywords:
Atmosphere
;
Earthquake precursors
;
Clouds
;
01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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