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  • 2020-2024  (2)
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  • 1
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    Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models (2023)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    In:  EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 50(4), ISSN: 0094-8276
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-23
    Description: Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air-sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 2
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    Arctic Ocean simulations in the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) (2023)
    Copernicus GmbH
    In:  EPIC3Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, 16(9), pp. 2539-2563, ISSN: 1991-959X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-23
    Description: Arctic Ocean simulations in 19 global ocean-sea-ice models participating in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated in this paper. Our findings show no significant improvements in Arctic Ocean simulations from the previous Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II) to the current OMIP. Large model biases and inter-model spread exist in the simulated mean state of the halocline and Atlantic Water layer in the OMIP models. Most of the OMIP models suffer from a too thick and deep Atlantic Water layer, a too deep halocline base, and large fresh biases in the halocline. The OMIP models qualitatively agree on the variability and change of the Arctic Ocean freshwater content; sea surface height; stratification; and volume, heat, and freshwater transports through the Arctic Ocean gateways. They can reproduce the changes in the gateway transports observed in the early 21st century, with the exception of the Bering Strait. We also found that the OMIP models employing the NEMO ocean model simulate relatively larger volume and heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening. Overall, the performance of the Arctic Ocean simulations is similar between the CORE2-forced OMIP-1 and JRA55-do-forced OMIP-2 experiments.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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