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  • 2020-2024  (9)
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  • 1
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    SSP economic growth projections: Major changes of key drivers in integrated assessment modelling (2023)
    In:  Ecological Economics
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    Publication Date: 2023-05-16
    Description: GDP scenarios are major drivers of climate change and climate change mitigation assessment studies. In this paper, a major update of the SSP GDP projections is presented. By using the most recent economic data and short-term projections by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, the update captures changes in the system of national accounting and purchasing power parities, as well as the impact of the Covid 19 pandemic. Harmonization between the data and the original end-of-the century SSP projections was carried out in terms of GDP per capita in order to preserve the underlying narrative of income convergence. The result is a set of projections compatible with the most recent data and the SSP narratives. A comparison of DICE models calibrated to the original and updated SSP2 GDP per capita projections illustrates how significant the impact of an update of income data on integrated assessment results can be. The estimated global social costs of carbon in 2015 and 2030 rose by almost 30%.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    Structural change scenarios within the SSP framework (2023)
    In:  Futures
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    Publication Date: 2023-05-30
    Description: Shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios represent a consistent set of socioeconomic assumptions and a major input of Integrated Assessment Models on climate change. This study added a driver that is missing so far in the SSP framework - the evolution of the sectoral structure of economies. A newly constructed set of structural change scenarios is presented. These structural change scenarios represent a well-known characteristic that accompanies the process of economic growth and development - the reallocation of economic activity between the three major sectors agriculture, manufacturing and services. While we construct scenarios for the sectoral shares of labor, value-added and energy based on historical data and an econometric approach, which comes with some limitation, these scenarios are linked to the SSP GDP scenarios and hence implicitly capture properties of the narratives underlying them. We find that the pattern and speed of structural change differ under different SSPs. Moreover, while the scenarios for developing countries reproduce structural change patterns (e.g., hump-shape of manufacturing labor share), observed for developed countries in the past, the projected transformation, in particular the reduction of labor shares in the agricultural sector, represents a tremendous challenge.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
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    A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda (2021)
    In:  Nature Climate Change
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    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps remain; for example, with respect to the eradication of extreme poverty (180 million people remaining in 2030). These gaps can be closed by 2050 for many SDGs while also respecting the 1.5 °C target and several other planetary boundaries.
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits (2021)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
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    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: This paper presents the new and now open-source version 2.1 of the REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND). REMIND, as an integrated assessment model (IAM), provides an integrated view of the global energy–economy–emissions system and explores self-consistent transformation pathways. It describes a broad range of possible futures and their relation to technical and socio-economic developments as well as policy choices. REMIND is a multiregional model incorporating the economy and a detailed representation of the energy sector implemented in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). It uses non-linear optimization to derive welfare-optimal regional transformation pathways of the energy-economic system subject to climate and sustainability constraints for the time horizon from 2005 to 2100. The resulting solution corresponds to the decentralized market outcome under the assumptions of perfect foresight of agents and internalization of external effects. REMIND enables the analyses of technology options and policy approaches for climate change mitigation with particular strength in representing the scale-up of new technologies, including renewables and their integration in power markets. The REMIND code is organized into modules that gather code relevant for specific topics. Interaction between different modules is made explicit via clearly defined sets of input and output variables. Each module can be represented by different realizations, enabling flexible configuration and extension. The spatial resolution of REMIND is flexible and depends on the resolution of the input data. Thus, the framework can be used for a variety of applications in a customized form, balancing requirements for detail and overall runtime and complexity.
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  • 5
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    REMIND - DIETER coupling (v1.1) (2022)
    CERN / Zenodo
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    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
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  • 6
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    Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a) (2024)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-11
    Description: This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
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    REMIND - REgional Model of INvestments and Development (2022)
    CERN / Zenodo
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    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 8
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    Macroeconomic structural change likely increases inequality in India more than climate policy (2024)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-12
    Description: The decarbonization of India's economy will have different effects across income groups. As India is in the middle of the transformation process from an agriculture-based economy towards an industry- and service-based economy, called economic structural change, the extent of income distribution across households strongly depends also on the speed of economic transformation. While a number of recent studies have analyzed the distributional effects of carbon pricing, the specific role of structural change across sectors has not been in the focus of the related literature. Our study contrasts distributional effects from climate policy with distributional effects from structural change in India and asks how far carbon pricing supports or hinders structural change and development. We develop and apply a comprehensive model framework that combines economic growth and international trade dynamics related to structural change with detailed household income and expenditure data for India. Our study shows that changes in income and inequality due to carbon pricing vary with the changes in the sectoral structure of economies. Our results indicate that carbon pricing tends to delay economic structural change by retarding the reallocation of economic activities from the agricultural sector to the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the results emphasize that the increase in inequality due to structural change is substantially stronger than due to carbon pricing. Consequently, socially sensitive policies supporting the process of structural transformation appear to be more important for poor households than lowering climate policy ambitions.
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    A high-precision profile for the validation of local high-resolution geoid models in the FCC region at CERN (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-01
    Description: In the scope of initial studies for a post-LHC particle accelerator, the design and feasibility of the Future Circular Collider (FCC) at CERN are studied. In the FCC-Geodesy project, which belongs to these initial studies, a high-precision geoid model for the significantly larger FCC area will be computed. The pre-alignment of the magnets and thrusters in the tunnel requires a very accurate high-resolution local geoid model with a precision of 30 μm over 225 m. Therefore, we established a 40 km long validation profile for the assessment of existing and more precise geoid models derived in this project for this region. This profile runs in a North-South direction through the area of interest and crosses the French-Swiss boarder twice. In several measurement campaigns in 2021 and 2022, the following measurements at a spacing of approximately 1 km along the profile were carried out: 1) Astro-geodetic deflections of the vertical (DoV) with the CODIAC zenith camera, 2) spirit levelling for height determination, 3) corresponding gravimetric measurements, and 4) GNSS measurements during two sessions of approximately 24 hours on 36 semi-permanent points to calculate an ultra-precise GNSS/levelling profile as well as an astrogeodetic profile. Additionally, a first geoid model was estimated specifically for this region in a least-squares adjustment based on measurements of gravity and DoV. This talk will present the objectives of the FCC-Geodesy project, the results of the high-precision profile, the initial geoid model, and a first comparison of existing and newly calculated geoid models in this region.
    Language: English
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