ALBERT

Description: Falling atmospheric CO2 levels led to cooling through the Eocene and the expansion of Antarctic ice sheets close to their modern size near the beginning of the Oligocene, a period of poorly documented climate. Here we present the first record of climate evolution across the entire Oligocene (33.9-23.0 Ma) based on new TEX86 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) estimates from southwestern Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 516 (paleolatitude ~ 36°S) and western equatorial Atlantic Ocean Drilling Project Site 929 (paleolatitude ~ 0°), combined with a compilation of existing SST records and climate modeling. In this relatively low CO2 Oligocene world (~300-700 ppm), warm climates similar to those of the late Eocene continued with only brief interruptions, while the Antarctic ice sheet waxed and waned. SSTs are spatially heterogenous, but generally support late Oligocene warming coincident with declining atmospheric CO2. This Oligocene warmth, especially at high latitudes, belies a simple relationship between climate and atmospheric CO2 and/or ocean gateways, and is only partially explained by current climate models. Though the dominant climate drivers of this enigmatic Oligocene world remain unclear, our results help fill a gap in understanding past Cenozoic climates and the way long-term climate sensitivity responded to varying background climate states.

Description: Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (〈1.5 per doubling CO2).

Description: We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ∼ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP; http://www.deepmip.org, last access: 10 January 2021); thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 ∘C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model; and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific; here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model–data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.

Description: The geological record encodes the relationship between climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) over long and short timescales, as well as potential drivers of evolutionary transitions. However, reconstructing CO 2 beyond direct measurements requires the use of paleoproxies and herein lies the challenge, as proxies differ in their assumptions, degree of understanding, and even reconstructed values. In this study, we critically evaluated, categorized, and integrated available proxies to create a high-fidelity and transparently constructed atmospheric CO 2 record spanning the past 66 million years. This newly constructed record provides clearer evidence for higher Earth system sensitivity in the past and for the role of CO 2 thresholds in biological and cryosphere evolution. Editor’s summary The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is a fundamental driver of climate, but its value is difficult to determine for times older than the roughly 800,000 years for which ice core records are available. The Cenozoic Carbon dioxide Proxy Integration Project (CenCO2PIP) Consortium assessed a comprehensive collection of proxy determinations to define the atmospheric carbon dioxide record for the past 66 million years. This synthesis provides the most complete record yet available and will help to better establish the role of carbon dioxide in climate, biological, and cryosphere evolution. — H. Jesse Smith