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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-09-02
    Description: Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-07-26
    Description: Smallholder livelihoods throughout Central America are built on rain‐fed agriculture and depend on seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. Recent climatic shifts in this highly diverse region are not well understood due to sparse observations, and as the skill of global climate products have not been thoroughly evaluated. We examine the performance for several reanalysis and satellite‐based global climate data products (CHIRPS/CHIRTS, ERA5, MERRA‐2, PERSIANN‐CDR) as compared to the observation‐based GPCC precipitation dataset. These datasets are then used to evaluate the magnitude and spatial extent of hydroclimatic shifts and changes in aridity and drought over the last four decades. We focus on water‐limited regions that are important for rain‐fed agriculture and particularly vulnerable to further drying, and newly delineate those regions for Central America and Mexico by adapting prior definitions of the Central American Dry Corridor. Our results indicate that the CHIRPS dataset exhibits the greatest skill for the study area. A general warming of 0.2–0.8°C·decade−1 was found across the region, particularly for spring and winter, while widespread drying was indicated by several measures for the summer growing season. Changes in annual precipitation have been inconsistent, but show declines of 20–25% in eastern Honduras/Nicaragua and in several parts of Mexico. Some regions most vulnerable to drying have been subject to statistically significant trends towards summer drying, increases in drought and aridity driven by precipitation declines, and/or a lengthening of the winter dry season, highlighting areas where climate adaptation measures may be most urgent.
    Description: Over the past four decades, precipitation trends are the main driver of drought trends, with temperature trends playing a small role. The most widespread drying and increases in aridity have occurred during the summer growing season. Based on delimitations of water‐limited and climate‐sensitive regions (brown shading) that are important for rain‐fed agriculture, some of these highly vulnerable regions overlap with areas of significant drying (red), highlighting potential prioritization areas for climate adaptation measures. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Frias Institute of Advanced Studies (FRIAS) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003190
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Improved wheat varieties have ameliorated our food production. Intensive cropping systems, as in Germany, achieve very high grain yields and thus contribute greatly to global food security. As diseases, especially fungal pathogens, pose major threats in winter wheat production, disease management is crucial to uphold high production levels and to avoid economic losses. Yet, the economic value of breeding varieties with increased resistance to fungal pathogens has not been analyzed with comprehensive data. Our analysis fills this gap by quantifying the economic effects of 50 years of resistance breeding for winter wheat production in Germany. Based on field trials and agronomic production data, we analyze how resistances have influenced the economic profitability of the crops. Thereby, we can isolate the pure breeding-induced effects of increased resistance to fungal pathogens, which cause leaf and stripe rust, powdery mildew, and Fusarium head blight. We calculated the gross margins of 176 varieties according to nitrogen and fungicide applications in field trials. Regression models show that resistance breeding had a strong positive and statistically significant effect on the gross margins of the varieties. In comparison, the specific meta-environment of the season had a larger effect, while the effect of high nitrogen as well as fungicide treatments was lower. The gross margin increased over time along with higher resistances. Simultaneously, the difference in gross margins between the fungicide-treated and untreated variants decreased, indicating an increased contribution of resistances to yield stability. Resistances have increased gross margins greatly, as the health levels of varieties remain high without the need for fungicide applications and thus production costs can be saved. We conclude that resistance breeding has increased the economic profitability and sustainability of crop production due to a reduction in the costs for fungicides. In fields of farmers, these positive effects of resistance breeding can be fully realized by an optimal variety choice and a variety- and situation-specific disease management. Such an agronomic practice would not only further improve winter wheat gross margins but also mitigate some of the pressures on agricultural productions, such as reduced disease management options and adverse climate change impacts.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-06-16
    Description: Abstract
    Description: As the negative impacts of hydrological extremes increase in large parts of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of change in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. To fill this gap, we present an IAHS Panta Rhei benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area (Kreibich et al. 2017, 2019). The contained 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas (in three study areas we have data on two paired events), which cover different socioeconomic and hydroclimatic contexts across all continents. The dataset is unique in covering floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the amount of qualitative and quantitative socio-hydrological data contained. References to the data sources are provided in 2022-002_Kreibich-et-al_Key_data_table.xlsx where possible. Based on templates, we collected detailed, review-style reports describing the event characteristics and processes in the case study areas, as well as various semi-quantitative data, categorised into management, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts. Sources of the data were classified as follows: scientific study (peer-reviewed paper and PhD thesis), report (by governments, administrations, NGOs, research organisations, projects), own analysis by authors, based on a database (e.g. official statistics, monitoring data such as weather, discharge data, etc.), newspaper article, and expert judgement. The campaign to collect the information and data on paired events started at the EGU General Assembly in April 2019 in Vienna and was continued with talks promoting the paired event data collection at various conferences. Communication with the Panta Rhei community and other flood and drought experts identified through snowballing techniques was important. Thus, data on paired events were provided by professionals with excellent local knowledge of the events and risk management practices.
    Keywords: hydrological extremes ; risk dynamics ; human-flood system ; human-drought system ; socio-hydrology ; risk management ; flood ; drought ; EARTH SCIENCE 〉 HUMAN DIMENSIONS 〉 ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE/MANAGEMENT 〉 WATER MANAGEMENT ; EARTH SCIENCE 〉 HUMAN DIMENSIONS 〉 NATURAL HAZARDS 〉 DROUGHTS ; EARTH SCIENCE 〉 HUMAN DIMENSIONS 〉 NATURAL HAZARDS 〉 FLOODS ; EARTH SCIENCE SERVICES 〉 DATA ANALYSIS AND VISUALIZATION ; environmental assessment 〉 environmental risk assessment
    Type: Dataset , Dataset
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