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  • 1
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    Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators (2021)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-02
    Description: In 2016, northern France experienced an unprecedented wheat crop loss. The cause of this event is not yet fully understood, and none of the most used crop forecast models were able to predict the event (Ben-Ari et al., 2018). However, this extreme event was likely due to a sequence of particular meteorological conditions, i.e. too few cold days in late autumn–winter and abnormally high precipitation during the spring season. Here we focus on a compound meteorological hazard (warm winter and wet spring) that could lead to a crop loss. This work is motivated by the question of whether the 2016 meteorological conditions were the most extreme possible conditions under current climate, and what the worst-case meteorological scenario would be with respect to warm winters followed by wet springs. To answer these questions, instead of relying on computationally intensive climate model simulations, we use an analogue-based importance sampling algorithm that was recently introduced into this field of research (Yiou and Jézéquel, 2020). This algorithm is a modification of a stochastic weather generator (SWG) that gives more weight to trajectories with more extreme meteorological conditions (here temperature and precipitation). This approach is inspired by importance sampling of complex systems (Ragone et al., 2017). This data-driven technique constructs artificial weather events by combining daily observations in a dynamically realistic manner and in a relatively fast way. This paper explains how an SWG for extreme winter temperature and spring precipitation can be constructed in order to generate large samples of such extremes. We show that with some adjustments both types of weather events can be adequately simulated with SWGs, highlighting the wide applicability of the method. We find that the number of cold days in late autumn 2015 was close to the plausible minimum. However, our simulations of extreme spring precipitation show that considerably wetter springs than what was observed in 2016 are possible. Although the relation of crop loss in 2016 to climate variability is not yet fully understood, these results indicate that similar events with higher impacts could be possible in present-day climate conditions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    The EMSO Generic Instrument Module (EGIM): Standardized and Interoperable Instrumentation for Ocean Observation (2022)
    Frontiers Media S.A.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The oceans are a fundamental source for climate balance, sustainability of resources and life on Earth, therefore society has a strong and pressing interest in maintaining and, where possible, restoring the health of the marine ecosystems. Effective, integrated ocean observation is key to suggesting actions to reduce anthropogenic impact from coastal to deep-sea environments and address the main challenges of the 21st century, which are summarized in the UN Sustainable Development Goals and Blue Growth strategies. The European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory (EMSO), is a European Research Infrastructure Consortium (ERIC), with the aim of providing long-term observations via fixed-point ocean observatories in key environmental locations across European seas from the Arctic to the Black Sea. These may be supported by ship-based observations and autonomous systems such as gliders. In this paper, we present the EMSO Generic Instrument Module (EGIM), a deployment ready multi-sensor instrumentation module, designed to measure physical, biogeochemical, biological and ecosystem variables consistently, in a range of marine environments, over long periods of time. Here, we describe the system, features, configuration, operation and data management. We demonstrate, through a series of coastal and oceanic pilot experiments that the EGIM is a valuable standard ocean observation module, which can significantly improve the capacity of existing ocean observatories and provides the basis for new observatories. The diverse examples of use included the monitoring of fish activity response upon oceanographic variability, hydrothermal vent fluids and particle dispersion, passive acoustic monitoring of marine mammals and time series of environmental variation in the water column. With the EGIM available to all the EMSO Regional Facilities, EMSO will be reaching a milestone in standardization and interoperability, marking a key capability advancement in addressing issues of sustainability in resource and habitat management of the oceans.
    Description: project EMSODEV (Grant agreement No 676555)
    Description: Published
    Description: 801033
    Description: 3A. Geofisica marina e osservazioni multiparametriche a fondo mare
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: fixed-point observatories, multi-parametric monitoring, seafloor, water column, EMSO, EGIM, EOV ; seafloor observatories
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Magma pressure discharge induces very long period seismicity (2021)
    Nature PG
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    Publication Date: 2021-12-23
    Description: Volcano seismicity is one of the key parameters to understand magma dynamics of erupting volcanoes. However, the physical process at the origin of the resulting complex and broadband seismic signals remains unclear. Syn-eruptive very long period (VLP) seismic signals have been explained in terms of the sudden expansion of gas pockets rising in the liquid melt. Their origin is linked to a magma dynamics which triggers the explosive process occurring before the explosive onset. We provide evidence based on acoustic, thermal, and ground deformation data to demonstrate that VLP signals at Stromboli are generated at the top of the magma column mainly after the explosion onset. We show that VLP amplitude and duration scale with the eruptive flux which induces a decompression of 103-104 Pa involving the uppermost ~ 250 m of the feeding conduit. The seismic VLP source represents the final stage of a ~ 200 s long charge and discharge mechanism the magma column has to release excess gas accumulated at the base of a denser and degassed magma mush. The position of the VLP seismic source coincides with the centroid of the shallow mush plug and tracks elevation changes of the magma free surface.
    Description: Published
    Description: 20065
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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