ALBERT

Description: We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (〉 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario.

Description: We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (〉 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario.

Description: Based on the latest GFZ release 06 of monthly gravity fields from GRACE satellite mission, area-averaged barystatic sea-level is found to rise by 2.02 mm/a during the period April 2002 until August 2016 in the open ocean with a 1000 km coastal buffer zone when low degree coefficients are properly augmented with information from satellite laser ranging. Alternative spherical harmonics solutions from CSR, JPL and TU Graz reveal rates between 1.94 and 2.08 mm/a, thereby demonstrating that systematic differences among the centers are much reduced in the latest release. The results from the direct integration in the open ocean can be aligned to associated solutions of the sea-level equation when fractional leakage derived from two differently filtered global gravity fields is explicitly considered, leading to a global mean sea-level rise of 1.72 mm/a. This result implies that estimates obtained from a 1000 km coastal buffer zone are biased 0.3 mm/a high due the systematic omission of regions with below-average barystatic sea-level rise in regions close to substantial coastal mass losses induced by the reduced gravitational attraction of the remaining continental ice and water masses.

Description: As a supplement to Huang et al. (2021) “Anelasticity and lateral heterogeneities in Earth’s upper mantle: impact on surface displacements, self-attraction and loading and ocean tide dynamics”, the global amplitude and root-mean-square fields of surface vertical displacement and self-attraction and loading due to ocean tide loading - the M2 tide derived from model TiME (Sulzbach et al., 2021), and the root-mean-square fields of M2 tide are presented here. The fields have been calculated for the 1D elastic solid Earth model PREM and 3D and 1D anelastic models. Figures 4-7, S1 and S2, and tables 1-2 in Huang et al. (2021) can be easily reproduced from these data fields applying the calculus discussed in the paper. The anelastic Earth models can be constructed with the methodology outlined in Huang et al. (2021) by making use of the elastic and attenuation tomography models from the University of California, Berkeley (Karaoğlu, H. & Romanowicz, B., 2018) and the École Normale Supérieure (ENS) de Lyon (Debayle et al., 2020), respectively. All response fields (U and SAL) are calculated with the spectral-finite element method (Martinec 2000, Tanaka et al. 2019).

Description: Surface displacements and self-attraction and loading (SAL) elevation induced by ocean tides are known to be affected by material properties of the solid Earth. Recent studies have shown that, in addition to elasticity, anelasticity considerably impacts surface displacements due to ocean tide loading (OTL). We employ consistent 3D seismic elastic and attenuation tomography models to construct 3D elastic and anelastic earth models, and derive corresponding averaged 1D elastic/anelastic models. We apply these models to systematically study the impact of anelasticity and lateral heterogeneity on M2 OTL displacements and SAL elevation. We find that neglecting lateral heterogeneities highly underestimates displacements and SAL elevation in mid-ocean-ridge regions and in some coastal areas of North and Central America. In comparison to PREM, 3D anelastic models can increase the predicted amplitudes of the vertical displacement and SAL elevation by up to 1.5 mm. The increased amplitudes reduce the discrepancy between GPS-observed OTL displacements and their predictions based on PREM in places like Cornwall (England), Brittany (France) and the Ryukyu Islands (Japan). Applying our results to ocean tides, we discover that the impact on ocean tide dynamics exceeds the predicted SAL elevation correction with an RMS of about 1 mm, reaching an RMS of more than 5 mm in areas like North Atlantic or East Pacific. Due to the fact that such a value reaches the accuracy of modern data-constrained tidal models, we regard the impact of anelastic shear relaxation as significant in tidal modelling.

Description: Temporal variations in the total ocean mass representing the barystatic part of present-day global-mean sea-level rise can be directly inferred from time-series of global gravity fields as provided by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions. A spatial integration over all ocean regions, however, largely underestimates present-day rates as long as the effects of spatial leakage along the coasts of in particular Antarctica, Greenland, and the various islands of the Canadian Archipelago are not properly considered. Based on the latest release 06 of monthly gravity fields processed at GFZ, we quantify (and subsequently correct) the contribution of spatial leakage to the post-processed mass anomalies of continental water storage and ocean bottom pressure. We find that by utilizing the sea level equation to predict spatially variable ocean mass trends out of the (leakage-corrected) terrrestial mass distributions from GRACE and GRACE-FO consistent results are obtained also from spatial integrations over ocean masks with different coastal buffer zones ranging from 400 to 1000 km. However, the results are critically dependent on coefficients of degree 1, 2 and 3, that are not precisely determined from GRACE data alone and need to be augemented by information from satellite laser ranging. We will particularly discuss the impact of those low-degree harmonics on the secular rates in global barystatic sea-level.

Description: We present a compilation and analysis of 1099 Holocene relative shore-level (RSL) indicators including 867 relative sea-level data points and 232 data points from the Ancylus Lake and the following transitional phase from 10.7 to 8.5 ka BP located around the Baltic Sea. The spatial distribution covers the Baltic Sea and near-coastal areas fairly well, but some gaps remain mainly in Sweden. RSL data follow the standardized HOLSEA format and, thus, are ready for spatially comprehensive applications in, e.g., glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling. Sampling method The data set is a compilation of rather different samples from geological, geomorphological and archaeological studies. Most of the data was already published in different formats. In this compilation we homogenized the meta information of the available information according to the HOLSEA database format, https://www.holsea.org/archive-your-data, which is a modification of the recommendations given in Hijma et al. (2015). In addition to the reformatting, the majority of samples with radiocarbon dating were recalibrated with oxcal-software using the calib13 and marine13 curves. Furthermore, all sample descriptions were critically checked for consistency in positioning, levelling and indicative meaning by experts of the respective geographic region see Supplement 2. Analytical method In principle, it is a compilation, recalibration and revision of already published data. Data Processing Data of individual compilations were revised and imported into a relational database system. Therein, the data was transferred into the HOLSEA format by specified rules. By this procedure, a homogeneous categorisation was achieved without losing the original data. Also this is stored in the relational database system allowing for later updates of the transfer procedure or a recalibration of the data. Description of data table HOLSEA-baltic-yymmdd.xlsx The workbook in excel format contains 5 sheets, see https://www.holsea.org/archive-your-data: · Long-form, containing the complete information available for each sample · Short-form, a subset of attributes of the Long-form sheet · Radiocarbon, containing the radiocarbon dating information of the respective samples · U-series, a corresponding table containing the respective information of Uranium dating · References, a complete reference list of the primary publications in which the individual data sampling is described. All online sources for the compilation are included in the metadata. A full list of source references is provided in the data description file.

Description: Temporal variations in the total ocean mass representing the barystatic part of present-day global mean sea-level rise can be unambiguously inferred from time-series of global gravity fields as provided by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions. A spatial integration over all ocean regions, however, largely underestimates present-day rates as long as the effects of spatial leakage along the coasts of in particular Antarctica, Greenland, and the various islands of the Canadian Archipelago are not properly considered. Based on the recent release 06 of monthly gravity fields processed at GFZ, we quantify (and subsequently correct) the contribution of spatial leakage to the post-processed mass anomalies of continental water storage and ocean bottom pressure. Utilising the sea level equation allows to predict spatially variable ocean mass trends out of the (leakage-corrected) terrestrial mass distributions from GRACE and GRACE-FO. Consistent results for the global mean barystatic sea-level rise are obtained also from spatial integrations over ocean masks with different coastal buffer zones ranging from 400 to 1000 km, thereby confirming the robustness of our method. Residual month-to-month variations in ocean bottom pressure are indicative for errors in the monthly-mean estimates of the applied de-aliasing model AOD1B RL06 and will be thus contrasted against very recent MPIOM experiments considered for AOD1B RL07. The in this way improved leakage correction will be implemented in future GravIS versions (http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de).