ALBERT

Description: Picophytoplankton are the most abundant primary producers in the ocean. Knowledge of their community dynamics is key to understanding their role in marine food webs and global biogeochemical cycles. To this end, we analyzed a 16-y time series of observations of a phytoplankton community at a nearshore site on the Northeast US Shelf. We used a size-structured population model to estimate in situ division rates for the picoeukaryote assemblage and compared the dynamics with those of the picocyanobacteriaSynechococcusat the same location. We found that the picoeukaryotes divide at roughly twice the rate of the more abundantSynechococcusand are subject to greater loss rates (likely from viral lysis and zooplankton grazing). We describe the dynamics of these groups across short and long timescales and conclude that, despite their taxonomic differences, their populations respond similarly to changes in the biotic and abiotic environment. Both groups appear to be temperature limited in the spring and light limited in the fall and to experience greater mortality during the day than at night. Compared withSynechococcus, the picoeukaryotes are subject to greater top-down control and contribute more to the region’s primary productivity than their standing stocks suggest.

Description: Understanding the cues that drive larval fish settlement is critical for managing reef systems under stress. Reef sound is increasingly reported to influence fish recruitment, yet the physical and acoustic environment in which larval fish settle varies in space and time. Accordingly, testing potential settlement cues under different conditions is vital for understanding their ecological importance. We conducted 2 sets of field playback experiments in St. John, US Virgin Islands, one nearshore (10 m depth) and the second ‘offshore’ (25 m depth), to assess the effects of reef soundscape playback on settlement rates of multiple reef fish families. In each experiment, nightly currents were quantified and we replicated the diel soundscape cycle using high, low, and control (silent) amplitude recordings from nearby reefs. The first experiment revealed significant current-based, down-stream reduction in larval fish catches in subsurface light traps and a significant effect of increasing amplitude of reef playbacks on larval lizardfish (Synodontidae) catches. In the second, offshore experiment which had no current effect, increasing reef playback amplitude led to a significantly greater catch of parrotfish (Scaridae) larvae and decreased larval pelagic fish catch. Total reef fish larvae only showed attraction to reef playbacks at the most nearshore site. This work demonstrates that while sound can play a role in the settlement of certain reef fishes, responses are influenced by multiple factors, including larger-scale physical processes, underscoring the need to consider the scale of soundscape cues for reef fish settlement within an oceanographic context.

Description: The value and importance of leadership is evident by its prevalence throughout human societies and organizations. Based on an evolutionary argument, models are presented here that provide a mathematical justification as to how and why leadership arose in the first place and then persisted. In this setting, by a leader is meant a person whose overall actions are ultimately responsible for the well-being and survival of the group. The proposed models contain parameters whose values reflect group size, harshness of the environment, diversity of actions taken by individuals, and the amount of group cohesion. Mathematical analysis and computer simulations are used to identify conditions on these parameters under which leadership results in an increased survival probability for the community.

Description: In this report we have attempted to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Although our initial approach was to rely on published accounts, we quickly realized that the body of published literature deahng with hypoxia was limited,and we would have to conduct our own exploratory analysis of existing Gulf data, or rely on published accounts from other systems to infer possible or potential effects of hypoxia.For the economic analysis, we developed a conceptual model of how hypoxia-related impacts could affect fisheries. Our model included both supply and demand components. The supplymodel had two components: (1) a physical production function for fish or shrimp, and (2) the cost of fishing. If hypoxia causes the cost of a unit of fishing effort to change, then this will result in a shift in supply. The demand model considered how hypoxia might affect the quality of landed fish or shrimp. In particular, the market value per pound is lower for small shrimp thanfor large shrimp.Given the limitations of the ecological assessment, the shallow continental shelf area affected by hypoxia does show signs of hypoxia-related stress. While current ecological conditions are a response to a variety of stressors, the effects of hypoxia are most obvious in the benthos that experience mortality, elimination of larger long-lived species, and a shifting of productivity to nonhypoxic periods (energy pulsing). What is not known is whether hypoxia leads to higher productivity during productive periods, or simply to a reduction of productivity during oxygen-stressed periods.The economic assessment based on fisheries data, however, failed to detect effects attributable to hypoxia. Overall, fisheries landings statistics for at least the last few decades have been relatively constant. The failure to identify clear hypoxic effects in the fisheries statistics does not necessarily mean that they are absent. There are several possibilities: (1) hypoxic effects are small relative to the overall variability in the data sets evaluated; (2) the data and the power of the analyses are not adequate; and (3) currently there are no hypoxic effects on fisheries.Lack of identified hypoxic effects in available fisheries data does not imply that effects would not occur should conditions worsen. Experience with other hypoxic zones around the globe shows that both ecological and fisheries effects become progressively more severe as hypoxia increases. Several large systems around the globe have suffered serious ecological and economic consequencesfrom seasonal summertime hypoxia; most notable are the Kattegat and Black Sea. The consequences range from localized loss of catch and recruitment failure to complete system-wide loss of fishery species. If experiences in other systems are applicable to the Gulf of Mexico, thenin the face of worsening hypoxic conditions, at some point fisheries and other species will decline, perhaps precipitously.