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  • 1
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    Multisource Bayesian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Gulf of Naples (Italy) (2020)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-01
    Print ISSN: 2169-9275
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-9291
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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  • 2
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    Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily – Italy (2012)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-01-17
    Description: We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 3
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    Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy) (2012)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-06-22
    Print ISSN: 0921-030X
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-0840
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Springer
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  • 4
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    Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps (2021)
    Frontiers Media
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-29
    Description: Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.
    Electronic ISSN: 2296-6463
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Frontiers Media
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  • 5
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    Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps (2021)
    In:  Frontiers in Earth Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-30
    Description: Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 6
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    Multisource Bayesian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Gulf of Naples (Italy) (2020)
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-10
    Description: A methodology for a comprehensive probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis is presented for the major sources of tsunamis (seismic events, landslides, and volcanic activity) and preliminarily applied in the Gulf of Naples (Italy). The methodology uses both a modular procedure to evaluate the tsunami hazard and a Bayesian analysis to include the historical information of the past tsunami events. In the urn:x-wiley:jgrc:media:jgrc23818:jgrc23818-math-0001 the submarine earthquakes and the submarine mass failures are initially identified in a gridded domain and defined by a set of parameters, producing the sea floor deformations and the corresponding initial tsunami waves. Differently volcanic tsunamis generate sea surface waves caused by pyroclastic density currents from Somma‐Vesuvius. In the urn:x-wiley:jgrc:media:jgrc23818:jgrc23818-math-0002 the tsunami waves are simulated and propagated in the deep sea by a numerical model that solves the shallow water equations. In the urn:x-wiley:jgrc:media:jgrc23818:jgrc23818-math-0003 the tsunami wave heights are estimated at the coast using the urn:x-wiley:jgrc:media:jgrc23818:jgrc23818-math-0004's amplification law. The selected tsunami intensity is the wave height. In the urn:x-wiley:jgrc:media:jgrc23818:jgrc23818-math-0005 the probabilistic tsunami analysis computes the long‐term comprehensive Bayesian probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis. In the prior analysis the probabilities from the scenarios in which the tsunami parameter overcomes the selected threshold levels are combined with the spatial, temporal, and frequency‐size probabilities of occurrence of the tsunamigenic sources. The urn:x-wiley:jgrc:media:jgrc23818:jgrc23818-math-0006 probability density functions are integrated with the urn:x-wiley:jgrc:media:jgrc23818:jgrc23818-math-0007 derived from the historical information based on past tsunami data. The urn:x-wiley:jgrc:media:jgrc23818:jgrc23818-math-0008 probability density functions are evaluated to produce the hazard curves in selected sites of the Gulf of Naples.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
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    Probabilistic hazard analysis for tsunamis generated by subaqueous volcanic explosions in the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: A probabilistic hazard analysis of tsunami generated by subaqueous volcanic explosion is applied to the Campi Flegrei caldera (Campania, Italy). An event tree is developed to quantify the tsunami hazard due to the submarine explosions by: i) defining potential size classes of explosion magnitude on the basis of past volcanic activity in the Campi Flegrei caldera and sites in the underwater part of the caldera; ii) simulating the generation and propaga- tion of the consequent tsunami waves able to reach the coasts of the Campania region for all combinations of tsunami-generating vents and sizes; and iii) quantifying the tsunami probability and relative uncertainty, condi- tional upon the occurrence of an underwater eruption at Campi Flegrei. Tsunami hazard generated by subaque- ous volcanic explosions is considered crucial because of its potential high impact on the densely populated coastal areas of the Pozzuoli Bay and Gulf of Naples even if the probability for eruptions in the submarine part of the caldera is certainly low. The tsunami hazard analysis is presented using conditional hazard curves and maps, that is calculating the probability (and relative uncertainties) of exceeding given tsunami intensity thresh- olds (wave amplitudes at the coast), given the occurrence of a subaqueous eruption. The results indicate that a significant tsunami hazard exists in many areas of the Bay of Naples.
    Description: Published
    Description: 106-116
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (2010)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Bayesian method ; Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment ; Run-up ; Modular structure ; Seismic sources ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
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    Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy) (2012)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA.
    Description: Published
    Description: 329-358
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment - Messina Strait Area - Submarine seismic sources - Submarine mass failures ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
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    Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily – Italy (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probabil- ity Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (res- idential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a fac- tor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.
    Description: Published
    Description: 151-163
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Probabilistic Bayesian analysis- Building tsunami risk assessment - Human tsunami risk assessment ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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