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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climatic change 31 (1995), S. 163-180 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climatic change 31 (1995), S. 427-453 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The role of the atmospheric circulation in climate change is examined. A review is given of the information available in the past record on the atmosheric circulation and its role in climate change, firstly at the surface via sea level pressure in both the northern and southern hemispheres and secondly for the free atmosphere. As with most climate information, the climate record is compromised by non-physical inhomogeneities arising from changes in observing and analyzing techniques and changes in data coverage. Problems with and threats to the rawinsonde network are discussed. Global analyses produced by the operational centers, U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), for weather forecasting purposes contain many discontinuous changes in the analyses arising from improvements in the system used to produce them. A discussion is given of the prospects for and motivation behind an activity known as ‘reanalysis’ in which the historical data are reanalyzed using a state-of-the-art system that is held constant for the entire record. The only sources of spurious change then are the changes in the observing system, such as the introduction of space-based observations. Recommendations are made on needed actions for better understanding and monitoring climate change. The role of the atmospheric circulation and the strong links to other variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind are established and illustrated with a survey of decadal variability, the evidence for it, and the way in which the observed atmospheric circulation is involved in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors. The importance of teleconnections is stressed, especially in the winter half year, for understanding local climate change. The likelihood that changes will be manifested in the frequency and intensity of preferred modes of behavior in the atmosphere, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific-North American teleconnection patterns, rather than in changes in the modes is also emphasized. The recently observed climate changes and the tendency for an unprecedented prolonged El Niño are interpreted in this framework. The key coupled atmosphere-ocean character of decadal variability is noted with the atmosphere providing the spatial scales, the ocean the memory, but also with the need for collaborative, as opposed to destructive, interactions through the atmospheric circulation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract A physically based conceptual framework is put forward that explains why an increase in heavy precipitation events should be a primary manifestation of the climate change that accompanies increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase downwelling infrared radiation, and this global heating at the surface not only acts to increase temperatures but also increases evaporation which enhances the atmospheric moisture content. Consequently all weather systems, ranging from individual clouds and thunderstorms to extratropical cyclones, which feed on the available moisture through storm-scale moisture convergence, are likely to produce correspondingly enhanced precipitation rates. Increases in heavy rainfall at the expense of more moderate rainfall are the consequence along with increased runoff and risk of flooding. However, because of constraints in the surface energy budget, there are also implications for the frequency and/or efficiency of precipitation. It follows that increased attention should be given to trends in atmospheric moisture content, and datasets on hourly precipitation rates and frequency need to be developed and analyzed as well as total accumulation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract New estimates of the moistening of the atmosphere through evaporation at the surface and of the drying through precipitation are computed. Overall, the e-folding residence time of atmospheric moisture is just over 8 days. New estimates are also made of how much moisture that precipitates out comes from horizontal transport versus local evaporation, referred to as ‘recycling’. The results depend greatly on the scale of the domain under consideration and global maps of the recycling for annual means are produced for 500 km scales for which global recycling is 9.6%, consisting of 8.9% over land and 9.9% over the oceans. Even for 1000 km scales, less than 20% of the annual precipitation typically comes from evaporation within the domain. While average overall atmospheric moisture depletion and restoration must balance, precipitation falls only a small fraction of the time. Thus precipitation rates are also examined. Over the United States, one hour intervals with 0.1 mm or more are used to show that the frequency of precipitation ranges from over 30% in the Northwest, to about 20% in the Southeast and less than 4% just east of the continental divide in winter, and from less than 2% in California to over 20% in the Southeast in summer. In midlatitudes precipitation typically falls about 10% of the time, and so rainfall rates, conditional on when rain is falling, are much larger than evaporation rates. The mismatches in the rates of rainfall versus evaporation imply that precipitating systems of all kinds feed mostly on the moisture already in the atmosphere. Over North America, much of the precipitation originates from moisture advected from the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical Atlantic or Pacific a day or so earlier. Increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere produce global warming through an increase in downwelling infrared radiation, and thus not only increase surface temperatures but also enhance the hydrological cycle, as much of the heating at the surface goes into evaporating surface moisture. Global temperature increases signify that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases and, together with enhanced evaporation, this means that the actual atmospheric moisture should increase. It follows that naturally-occurring droughts are likely to be exacerbated by enhanced potential evapotranspiration. Further, globally there must be an increase in precipitation to balance the enhanced evaporation but the processes by which precipitation is altered locally are not well understood. Observations confirm that atmospheric moisture is increasing in many places, for example at a rate of about 5% per decade over the United States. Based on the above results, we argue that increased moisture content of the atmosphere therefore favors stronger rainfall or snowfall events, thus increasing risk of flooding, which is a pattern observed to be happening in many parts of the world. Moreover, because there is a disparity between the rates of increase of atmospheric moisture and precipitation, there are implied changes in the frequency of precipitation and/or efficiency of precipitation (related to how much moisture is left behind in a storm). However, an analysis of linear trends in the frequency of precipitation events for the United States corresponding to thresholds of 0.1 and 1 mm/h shows that the most notable statistically significant trends are for increases in the southern United States in winter and decreases in the Pacific Northwest from November through January, which may be related to changes in atmospheric circulation and storm tracks associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation trends. It is suggested that as the physical constraints on precipitation apply only globally, more attention should be paid to rates in both observations and models as well as the frequency of occurrence.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The Working Group on Storms considered tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, thunderstorms and their associated winds and effects other than on temperatures and precipitation (which are dealt with by the other working groups) to be in their purview. Changes in observing systems and distribution of observers and people impacted by these phenomena confound trend analysis. In light of the difficulty of assembling homogeneous time series of small-scale phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes and hail, and also the problems in wind measurements, the working group recommends that indices of wind be developed by taking advantage of long surface (or sea-level) pressure measurements and analyses. Because wind is a vector, two pairs of readings that are orthogonal are desirable. Instantaneous values over about 1000 km scales are desirable to generate statistics relevant to wind extremes. Recommendations are given on how the data might profitably be processed. Several other recommendations are made concerning data acquisition and processing, some of which apply to reanalysis of past data and some apply to future processing of data. Various "extremes indices" are also suggested.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 386 (1997), S. 131-133 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Humankind is performing a great geophysical experiment1. By modifying the Earth's environment in various ways, we are changing the climate. The extent and the rate of these changes are unclear, as is what (if anything) should be done about them, but that the experiment is underway is not in doubt. ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 386 (1997), S. 164-167 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The relative merits of the surface and MSU temperature records have been a matter of spirited debate1. One often overlooked issue is that there is no single satellite record, and that different tropospheric measures of temperature from the MSUs contain different trends and different error ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78 (12). pp. 2771-2777.
    Publication Date: 2019-03-07
    Description: A review is given of the meaning of the term “El Niño” and how it has changed in time, so there is no universal single definition. This needs to be recognized for scientific uses, and precision can only be achieved if the particular definition is identified in each use to reduce the possibility of misunderstanding. For quantitative purposes, possible definitions are explored that match the El Niños identified historically after 1950, and it is suggested that an El Niño can be said to occur if 5-month running means of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W) exceed 0.4°C for 6 months or more. With this definition, El Niños occur 31% of the time and La Niñas (with an equivalent definition) occur 23% of the time. The histogram of Niño 3.4 SST anomalies reveals a bimodal character. An advantage of such a definition is that it allows the beginning, end, duration, and magnitude of each event to be quantified. Most El Niños begin in the northern spring or perhaps summer and peak from November to January in sea surface temperatures.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 1999-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 1997-06-01
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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