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  • 1
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we evaluate the predictive capacity of certain causal models linked to different inflation theories, such as the Phillips Curve and a monetary VAR. We also analyze the predictive power of models that use factors that combine the overall variability of a large number of business cycle time series as predictors. We compare their relative performance using a set of parametric and non-parametric tests proposed by Diebold and Mariano (1995). Although the univariate model performs best, as the forecast horizon lengthens, multivariate models performance improves. In particular, a monetary VAR performs better than the univariate ARMA model in the case of a one-year horizon. Nevertheless, when tests are calculated to evaluate the statistical significance of differences in the predictive capacity of models, taking a univariate ARMA model as a benchmark, differences are not statistically significant. Finally, estimated models are pooled to forecast inflation. Some of the forecast combinations outperform the best individual forecast over a one-year horizon. Taking into account that a one year-horizon is relevant for economic policy decisions, the possibility of combining both univariate and multivariate models for forecasting purpose is interesting, because it it can also be helpful to answer specific economic policy questions.
    Keywords: C32 ; E31 ; E37 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Using frequency domain techniques to separate short and long run dynamics and decomposing inflation into its common and idiosyncratic components, we study the regime dependence of the inflation-RPV relation in Argentina and the USA. Under High inflation, strong long-run comovement between RPV and Inflation is found for both economies, that extends to the short run adding extra noise to that usually present at high frequencies. High inflation also leads to ideosyncratic movements in prices that do not cancel out, adding persistence to the process. When inflation is low, no long-run interaction between variables is expected. This is the case of the US, even though supply shocks are comparable to those of the seventies when trend inflation was high. Surprisingly, the findings for Argentina do not support the a-priori as both variables show significant long term comovement. Studying disaggregate price responses to common shocks helps to understand sectoral pattens behind these dynamics. Our results suggest that long run variablity in inflation can be induced, not only by a high trend inflation, but also by policy stabilization efforts based on relative price adjustments.
    Keywords: C22 ; C43 ; E31 ; E52 ; ddc:330 ; inflation ; frequency domain analysis ; regime ; common shocks ; monetary policy ; relative prices ; Inflation ; Relativer Preis ; Theorie ; Argentinien ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we evaluate the predictive capacity of certain causal models linked to different inflation theories, such as the Phillips Curve and a monetary VAR. We also analyze the predictive power of models that use factors that combine the overall variability of a large number of business cycle time series as predictors. We compare their relative performance using a set of parametric and non-parametric tests proposed by Diebold and Mariano (1995). Although the univariate model performs best, as the forecast horizon lengthens, multivariate models performance improves. In particular, a monetary VAR performs better than the univariate ARMA model in the case of a one-year horizon. Nevertheless, when tests are calculated to evaluate the statistical significance of differences in the predictive capacity of models, taking a univariate ARMA model as a benchmark, differences are not statistically significant. Finally, estimated models are pooled to forecast inflation. Some of the forecast combinations outperform the best individual forecast over a one-year horizon. Taking into account that a one year-horizon is relevant for economic policy decisions, the possibility of combining both univariate and multivariate models for forecasting purpose is interesting, because it it can also be helpful to answer specific economic policy questions.
    Keywords: C32 ; E31 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; Argentina ; inflation forecast ; multivariate models ; pooling ; univariate models ; Inflation ; Prognose ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: We estimate a 'Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve' for Argentina between 1993 and 2007. We extend the model to a small open economy, considering separately the influence of nominal devaluation and foreign inflation on domestic prices. For the whole sample, we find that forward and backward-looking components are relevant although the backward-looking term weights more in determining inflation dynamics. We test for parameter stability and find a break-point in 2002 along with the regime change. In line with recent literature on trend inflation, when trend inflation increases, the influence of the output gap weakens and the curve becomes more forward-looking.
    Keywords: C5 ; E31 ; ddc:330 ; Argentina ; inflation dynamics ; Phillips Curve ; small open economy ; New-Keynesian Phillips Curve ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2015-05-22
    Description: This paper investigates the determinants of the service sector employment share in the EU-15, for the aggregate service sector, four sub-sectors and twelve service sector branches. Recently, both Europe and the US have experienced an increase in the share of service-related jobs in total employment. Although converging in all European countries, a significant gap in the share of service jobs in Europe relative to the US persists. Understanding the main factors behind this gap is key to achieving higher employment levels in Europe. This paper focuses on the role of barriers in the EU-15 which may have hindered its ability to absorb labour supply and therefore to adjust efficiently to the sectoral reallocation of labour. We find that a crucial role in this process has been played by the institutional framework affecting flexibility in the labour market and by the mismatch between workers' skills and job vacancies.
    Keywords: E24 ; J21 ; J23 ; J24 ; L80 ; ddc:330 ; services ; sectoral adjustment ; employment share ; Europe ; US ; institutions in the labour and product market ; Dienstleistungssektor ; Beschäftigungseffekt ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Institutioneller Wandel ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2016-06-22
    Description: This paper studies the major determinants that affect the country choice of the talented Italian scientists and researchers who have at least a bachelor's from Italy and live abroad. There are three alternative country choices: the US/Canada, the UK, and other EU countries. On average, the brainy Italians exhibit a higher predicted probability to go to the US. Ceteris paribus, both push and pull factors are important. While having a Ph.D. from outside Italy predicts the UK choice, having extra working experience from outside Italy predicts migration to other EU countries. Those who stay abroad temporarily for two to four years are definitely more likely to go to the UK. Specialization in the fields of humanities, social sciences, and health are strong determinants of migration to the UK. For the move to the US, while the humanities area is a significant deterrent, health is a positive deciding factor. Lack of funds in Italy constitutes a significant push to the US.
    Keywords: J61 ; J24 ; F22 ; ddc:330 ; Brain drain ; skilled migration ; Italy ; push-pull factors ; Brain Drain ; Migrationstheorie ; Italien ; Einwanderung ; Italiener ; USA ; Großbritannien ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Helsinki: The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: This paper charts the complex dynamics of the movement of technical talent in the world economy and assesses broadly the impact of such mobility on both sending and receiving countries. Based on secondary data and primary information from the Indian and Japanese IT industry, the study presents a global view of the movement of talent and its development and policy implications. By synthesizing disparate data and the multifaceted processes and outcomes of international mobility, the paper examines some of the distributional issues of gains and losses in both sending and receiving countries.
    Keywords: F22 ; I28 ; J24 ; L86 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; education ; government policy ; human capital ; skills ; information services ; computer software ; Internationale Arbeitsmobilität ; Humankapital ; Softwareindustrie ; Indien ; Japan
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Observations of T Tauri stars and young brown dwarfs suggest that the accretion rates of their disks scales roughly with the square of the central stellar mass. No dependence of accretion rate on stellar mass is predicted by the simplest version of the Gammie layered disk model, in which nonthermal ionization of upper disk layers allows accretion to occur via the magnetorotational instability. We show that a minor modification of Gaminie's model to include heating by irradiation from the central star yields a modest dependence of accretion on the mass of the central star. A purely viscous disk model could provide a strong dependence of accretion rate on stellar mass if the initial disk radius (before much viscous evolution has occurred) has a strong dependence on stellar mass. However, it is far from clear that at least the most massive pre-main-sequence disks can be totally magnetically activated by X-rays or cosmic rays. We suggest that a combination of effects are responsible for the observed dependence, with the lowest mass stars having the lowest mass disks, which can be thoroughly magnetically active, while the higher mass stars have higher mass disks that have layered accret,ion and relatively inactive or "dead" central zones at some radii. In such dead zones, we suggest that gravitational instabilities may play a role in allowing accretion to proceed. In this connection, we emphasize the uncertainty in disk masses derived from dust emission and argue that T Tauri disk masses have been systematically underestimated by conventional analyses. Furtlier study of accretion rates, especially in the lowest mass stars, would help to clarify the mechanisms of accretion in T Tauri stars.
    Keywords: Astronomy
    Type: The Astrophysical Journal; 648; 1; 484-490
    Format: text
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: We presented the infrared spectrum of the young binary system St 34 obtained with the Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) on the Spitzer Space Telescope. The IRS spectrum clearly shows excess dust emission, consistent with the suggestion of White & Hillenbrand that St 34 is accreting from a circumbinary disk. The disk emission of St 34 is low in comparison with the levels observed in typical T Tauri stars; silicate features at 10 and 20 microns are much weaker than typically seen in T Tauri stars; and excess emission is nearly absent at the shortest wavelengths observed. These features of the infrared spectrum suggest substantial grain growth (to eliminate silicate features) and possible settling of dust to the disk midplane (to reduce the continuum excess emission levels), along with a relatively evacuated inner disk, as expected due to gravitational perturbations by the binary system. Although the position of St 34 in the H-R diagram suggests an age of 8f Myr, assuming that it lies at the distance of the Taurus-Auriga molecular clouds, White & Hillenbrand could not detect any Li I absorption, which would indicate a Li depletion age of roughly 25 Myr or more. We suggest that St 34 is closer than the Taurus clouds by about 30-40 pc and has an age roughly consistent with Li depletion models. Such an advanced age would make St 34 the oldest known low-mass pre-main-sequence object with a dusty accretion disk. The persistence of optically thick dust emission well outside the binary orbit may indicate a failure to make giant planets that could effectively remove dust particles.
    Keywords: Astronomy
    Type: The Astrophysical Journal; 628; 2; L147 - L150
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: We presented Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) observations of two objects of the Taurus population that show unambiguous signs of clea,ring in their inner disks. In one of the objects, DM Tau, the outer disk is truncated at 3 AU; this object is akin to another recently reported in Taurus, CoKu Tau/4, in that the inner disk region is free of small dust. Unlike CoKu Tau/4, however, this star is still accreting, so optically thin gas should still remain in the inner disk region. The other object, GM Aur, also accreting, has about 0.02 lunar masses of small dust in the inner disk region within about 5 AU, consistent with previous reports. However, the IRS spectrum clearly shows that the optically thick outer disk has an inner truncation at a much larger radius than previously suggested, of order 24 AU. These observations provide strong evidence for the presence of gaps in protoplanetary disks.
    Keywords: Astronomy
    Type: The Astrophysical Journal; 630; 2; L185 - L188
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