ALBERT

Description: We compare several estimators, which are commonly used in hydrology, for the parameters of the distribution of flood series, like the Maximum-Likelihood estimator or L-Moments, with the robust estimators Trimmed L-Moments and Minimum Distances. Our objective is estimation of the 99 %- or 99.9 %-quantile of an underlying Gumbel or Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV), where we modify the generated random variables such that extraordinary extreme events occur. The results for a two- or three-parametric fitting are compared and the robustness of the estimators to the occurrence of extraordinary extreme events is investigated by statistical measures. When extraordinary extreme events are known to appear in the sample, the Trimmed L-Moments are a recommendable choice for a robust estimation. They even perform rather well, if there are no such events.

Description: Arctic boundary layer nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO2 + NO) are naturally produced in and released from the sunlit snowpack and range between 10 to 100 pptv in the remote background surface layer air. These nitrogen oxides have significant effects on the partitioning and cycling of reactive radicals such as halogens and HOx (OH + HO2). However, little is known about the impacts of local anthropogenic NOx emission sources on gas-phase halogen chemistry in the Arctic, and this is important because these emissions can induce large variability in ambient NOx and thus local chemistry. In this study, a zero-dimensional photochemical kinetics model was used to investigate the influence of NOx on the unique springtime halogen and HOx chemistry in the Arctic. Trace gas measurements obtained during the 2009 OASIS (Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea Ice–Snowpack) field campaign at Barrow, AK were used to constrain many model inputs. We find that elevated NOx significantly impedes gas-phase radical chemistry, through the production of a variety of reservoir species, including HNO3, HO2NO2, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), BrNO2, ClNO2 and reductions in BrO and HOBr, with a concomitant, decreased net O3 loss rate. The effective removal of BrO by anthropogenic NOx was directly observed from measurements conducted near Prudhoe Bay, AK during the 2012 Bromine, Ozone, and Mercury Experiment (BROMEX). Thus, while changes in snow-covered sea ice attributable to climate change may alter the availability of molecular halogens for ozone and Hg depletion, predicting the impact of climate change on polar atmospheric chemistry is complex and must take into account the simultaneous impact of changes in the distribution and intensity of anthropogenic combustion sources. This is especially true for the Arctic, where NOx emissions are expected to increase because of increasing oil and gas extraction and shipping activities.

Description: Nitrogen oxides (NOx) have fallen steadily across the US over the last fifteen years. At the same time, due to patterns diesel truck activities, NOx concentrations decrease on weekends relative to weekdays, largely without co-occurring changes in other gas-phase emissions. These trends taken together provide two independent constraints on the role of NOx in the nonlinear chemistry of atmospheric oxidation. In this context, we interpret interannual trends in wintertime ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) in the San Joaquin Valley of California, a location with the worst aerosol pollution in the US and where a large portion of aerosol mass is NH4NO3. Here, we show that NOx reductions have simultaneously decreased nighttime and increased daytime NH4NO3 production over the last decade. We find a substantial decrease in NH4NO3 since 2000 and conclude that this decrease is due to reduced nitrate radical-initiated production at night in residual layers that are decoupled from fresh emissions at the surface. Further reductions in NOx are imminent in California, and nationwide, and we make a quantitative prediction of the response of NH4NO3. We show that the combination of rapid chemical production and efficient NH4NO3 loss via deposition of gas-phase nitric acid implies high aerosol days in cities in the San Joaquin Valley air basin are responsive to local changes in NOx within those individual cities. Our calculations indicate that large decreases in NOx in the future will not only lower wintertime NH4NO3 concentrations, they will also cause a transition in the dominant NH4NO3 source from nighttime to daytime chemistry.

Description: An instrumented NASA P-3B aircraft was used for airborne sampling of trace gases in a plume that had emanated from a small forest understory fire in Georgia, USA. The plume was sampled at its origin for deriving emission factors and followed ~ 13.6 km downwind for observing chemical changes during the first hour of atmospheric aging. The P-3B payload included a proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS), which measured non-methane organic gases (NMOGs) at unprecedented spatio-temporal resolution (10 m/0.1 s). Quantitative emission data are reported for CO2, CO, NO, NO2, HONO, NH3 and 16 NMOGs (formaldehyde, methanol, acetonitrile, propene, acetaldehyde, formic acid, acetone plus its isomer propanal, acetic acid plus its isomer glycolaldehyde, furan, isoprene plus isomeric pentadienes and cyclopentene, methyl vinyl ketone plus its isomers crotonaldehyde and methacrolein, methylglyoxal, hydroxy acetone plus its isomers methyl acetate and propionic acid, benzene, 2,3-butandione and 2-furfural) with molar emission ratios relative to CO larger than 1 ppbV ppmV−1. Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, 2-furfural and methanol dominated NMOG emissions. No NMOGs with more than 10 carbon atoms were observed at mixing ratios larger than 50 ppbV ppmV−1 CO emitted. Downwind plume chemistry was investigated using the observations and a 0-D photochemical box model simulation. The model was run on a near-explicit chemical mechanism (MCM v3.3) and initialized with measured emission data. Ozone formation during the first hour of atmospheric aging was well captured by the model, with carbonyls (formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, 2,3-butanedione, methylglyoxal, 2-furfural) in addition to CO and CH4 being the main drivers of peroxy radical chemistry. The model also accurately reproduced the sequestration of NOx into PAN and the OH-initiated degradation of furan and 2-furfural at an average OH concentration of 7.45 ± 1.07 × 106 cm−3 in the plume. Formaldehyde, acetone/propanal, acetic acid/glycolaldehyde and maleic acid/maleic anhydride (tentatively identified) were found to be the main NMOGs to increase during one hour of atmospheric plume processing, with the model being unable to capture the observed increase. A mass balance analysis suggests that about 50 % of the aerosol mass formed in the downwind plume is organic in nature.

Description: Arctic boundary layer nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO2 + NO) are naturally produced in and released from the sunlit snowpack and range between 10 to 100 pptv in the remote background surface layer air. These nitrogen oxides have significant effects on the partitioning and cycling of reactive radicals such as halogens and HOx (OH + HO2). However, little is known about the impacts of local anthropogenic NOx emission sources on gas-phase halogen chemistry in the Arctic, and this is important because these emissions can induce large variability in ambient NOx and thus local chemistry. In this study, a zero-dimensional photochemical kinetics model was used to investigate the influence of NOx on the unique springtime halogen and HOx chemistry in the Arctic. Trace gas measurements obtained during the 2009 OASIS (Ocean – Atmosphere – Sea Ice – Snowpack) field campaign at Barrow, AK were used to constrain many model inputs. We find that elevated NOx significantly impedes gas-phase halogen radical-based depletion of ozone, through the production of a variety of reservoir species, including HNO3, HO2NO2, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), BrNO2, ClNO2 and reductions in BrO and HOBr. The effective removal of BrO by anthropogenic NOx was directly observed from measurements conducted near Prudhoe Bay, AK during the 2012 Bromine, Ozone, and Mercury Experiment (BROMEX). Thus, while changes in snow-covered sea ice attributable to climate change may alter the availability of molecular halogens for ozone and Hg depletion, predicting the impact of climate change on polar atmospheric chemistry is complex and must take into account the simultaneous impact of changes in the distribution and intensity of anthropogenic combustion sources. This is especially true for the Arctic, where NOx emissions are expected to increase because of increasing oil and gas extraction and shipping activities.

Description: The springtime depletion of tropospheric ozone in the Arctic is known to be caused by active halogen photochemistry resulting from halogen atom precursors emitted from snow, ice, or aerosol surfaces. The role of bromine in driving ozone depletion events (ODEs) has been generally accepted, but much less is known about the role of chlorine radicals in ozone depletion chemistry. While the potential impact of iodine in the High Arctic is more uncertain, there have been indications of active iodine chemistry through observed enhancements in filterable iodide, probable detection of tropospheric IO, and recently, observation of snowpack photochemical production of I2. Despite decades of research, significant uncertainty remains regarding the chemical mechanisms associated with the bromine-catalyzed depletion of ozone, as well as the complex interactions that occur in the polar boundary layer due to halogen chemistry. To investigate this, we developed a zero-dimensional photochemical model, constrained with measurements from the 2009 OASIS field campaign in Barrow, Alaska. We simulated a 7-day period during late March that included a full ozone depletion event lasting 3 days and subsequent ozone recovery to study the interactions of halogen radicals under these different conditions. In addition, the effects of iodine added to our Base Model were investigated. While bromine atoms were primarily responsible for ODEs, chlorine and iodine were found to enhance the depletion rates and iodine was found to be more efficient per atom at depleting ozone than Br. The interaction between chlorine and bromine is complex, as the presence of chlorine can increase the recycling and production of Br atoms, while also increasing reactive bromine sinks under certain conditions. Chlorine chemistry was also found to have significant impacts on both HO2 and RO2, with organic compounds serving as the primary reaction partner for Cl atoms. The results of this work highlight the need for future studies on the production mechanisms of Br2 and Cl2, as well as on the potential impact of iodine in the High Arctic.

Description: A model intercomparison activity was inspired by the large suite of observations of atmospheric composition made during the International Polar Year (2008) in the Arctic. Nine global and two regional chemical transport models participated in this intercomparison and performed simulations for 2008 using a common emissions inventory to assess the differences in model chemistry and transport schemes. This paper summarizes the models and compares their simulations of ozone and its precursors and presents an evaluation of the simulations using a variety of surface, balloon, aircraft and satellite observations. Each type of measurement has some limitations in spatial or temporal coverage or in composition, but together they assist in quantifying the limitations of the models in the Arctic and surrounding regions. Despite using the same emissions, large differences are seen among the models. The cloud fields and photolysis rates are shown to vary greatly among the models, indicating one source of the differences in the simulated chemical species. The largest differences among models, and between models and observations, are in NOy partitioning (PAN vs. HNO3) and in oxygenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetaldehyde and acetone. Comparisons to surface site measurements of ethane and propane indicate that the emissions of these species are significantly underestimated. Satellite observations of NO2 from the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) have been used to evaluate the models over source regions, indicating anthropogenic emissions are underestimated in East Asia, but fire emissions are generally overestimated. The emission factors for wildfires in Canada are evaluated using the correlations of VOCs to CO in the model output in comparison to enhancement factors derived from aircraft observations, showing reasonable agreement for methanol and acetaldehyde but underestimate ethanol, propane and acetone, while overestimating ethane emission factors.