Publication Date:
2015-12-10
Description:
The seismicity along the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) below the Marmara Sea is analyzed during the 2007-2012 period to provide insights on the recent evolution of this important regional seismic gap. High precision locations show that seismicity is strongly varying along strike and depth providing fine details of the fault behavior that are unaccessible from geodetic inversions. The activity strongly clusters at the regions of transition between basins. The Central basin shows significant seismicity located below the shallow locking depth inferred from GPS measurements. Its b -value is low and the average seismic slip is high. All observations are consistent with a deep creep of this segment. On the contrary, the Kumburgaz basin at the center of the fault shows sparse seismicity with the hallmarks of a locked segment. In the eastern Marmara Sea, the seismicity distribution along the Princes Island segment in the Cinarcik basin, is consistent with the geodetic locking depth of 10km and a low contribution to the regional seismic energy release. The assessment of the locked segment areas provide an estimate of the magnitude of the main forthcoming event to be about 7.3 assuming that the rupture will not enter significantly within creeping domains. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Electronic ISSN:
1525-2027
Topics:
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Geosciences
,
Physics
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