ALBERT

Description: Quantification of regional greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes is essential for establishing mitigation strategies and evaluating their effectiveness. Here, we used multiple top-down approaches and multiple trace gas observations at a tall tower to estimate regional-scale GHG fluxes and evaluate the GHG fluxes derived from bottom-up approaches. We first applied the eddy covariance, equilibrium, inverse modeling (CarbonTracker), and flux aggregation methods using 3 years of carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements on a 244 m tall tower in the upper Midwest, USA. We then applied the equilibrium method for estimating CH4 and N2O fluxes with 1-month high-frequency CH4 and N2O gradient measurements on the tall tower and 1-year concentration measurements on a nearby tall tower, and evaluated the uncertainties of this application. The results indicate that (1) the flux aggregation, eddy covariance, the equilibrium method, and the CarbonTracker product all gave similar seasonal patterns of the regional CO2 flux (105−106 km2, but that the equilibrium method underestimated the July CO2 flux by 52–69%. (2) The annual budget varied among these methods from −54 to −131 g C–CO2 m−2 yr−1, indicating a large uncertainty in the annual CO2 flux estimation. (3) The regional CH4 and N2O emissions according to a top-down method were at least 6 and 2 times higher than the emissions from a bottom-up inventory (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research), respectively. (4) The global warming potentials of the CH4 and N2O emissions were equal in magnitude to the cooling benefit of the regional CO2 uptake. The regional GHG budget, including both biological and anthropogenic origins, is estimated at 7 ± 160 g CO2 equivalent m−2 yr−1.

Description: Typically, gas transport through firn is modeled in the context of an idealized firn column. However, in natural firn, imperfections are present, which can alter transport dynamics and therefore reduce the accuracy of reconstructed climate records. For example, ice layers have been found in several firn cores collected in the polar regions. Here, we examined the effects of two ice layers found in a NEEM, Greenland firn core on gas transport through the firn. These ice layers were found to have permeability values of 3.0 and 4.0 × 10−10 m2, and are therefore not impermeable layers. However, the shallower ice layer was found to be significantly less permeable than the surrounding firn, and can therefore retard gas transport. Large closed bubbles were found in the deeper ice layer, which will have an altered gas composition than that expected because they were closed near the surface after the water phase was present. The bubbles in this layer represent 12% of the expected closed porosity of this firn layer after the firn-ice transition depth is reached, and will therefore bias the future ice core gas record. The permeability and thickness of the ice layers at the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) site suggest that they do not disrupt the firn-air concentration profiles and that they do not need to be accounted for in gas transport models at NEEM.

Description: Investigations into the physical characteristics of deep firn near the lock-in zone through pore close-off are needed to improve understanding of ice core records of past atmospheric composition. Specifically, the permeability and microstructure profiles of the firn through the diffusive column influence the entrapment of air into bubbles and thus the ice age–gas age difference. The purpose of this study is to examine the nature of pore closure processes at two polar sites with very different local temperatures and accumulation rates. Density, permeability, and microstructure measurements were made on firn cores from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide, a site that has moderate accumulation rates with a seasonal climate archive, and Megadunes in East Antarctica, a site that is a natural laboratory for accumulation rate effects in the cold low-accumulation desert. We found that the open pore structure plays a more important role than density in predicting gas transport properties, throughout the porous firn matrix. For firn below 50 m depth at both WAIS Divide and Megadunes, finer-grained layers experience close-off shallower in the firn column than do coarser-grained layers, regardless of which grain size layer is the denser layer at depth. Pore close-off occurs at a critical open porosity that is accumulation rate dependent. Defining pore close-off at a critical open porosity for a given accumulation rate as opposed to a critical total porosity accounts for the pore space available for gas transport. Below the critical open porosity, the firn becomes impermeable despite having small amounts of interconnected pore space. The low-accumulation sites, with generally coarse grains, close off at lower open porosities (~10%) of high-accumulation sites that have generally finer grains. The microstructure and permeability even near the bottom of the firn column are relic indicators of the nature of accumulation when that firn was at the surface. The physical structure and layering are the primary controlling factors on pore close-off. In contrast to current assumptions for polar firn, the depth and length of the lock-in zone is primarily dependent upon accumulation rate and microstructural variability due to differences in grain size and pore structure, rather than the density variability of the layers.

Description: Typically, gas transport through firn is modeled in the context of an idealized firn column. However, in natural firn, imperfections are present which may alter transport dynamics in ways that may reduce the accuracy of climate records. For example, ice layers have been found in several firn cores collected in the polar regions. Here, we examined the effects of two ice layers found in a NEEM, Greenland firn core on gas transport through the firn. Both ice layers were somewhat permeable. However, only the shallower ice layer was significantly less permeable than the surrounding firn and is therefore likely to retard gas transport. Large closed bubbles were found in one ice layer, which would contain older atmospheric samples than expected. Theses bubbles are likely to significantly bias age estimates. Conversely, the permeability and thickness of ice layers at NEEM suggest that they will not significantly bias the expected firn air concentration profiles at the present spatial resolution at which these data are collected. Therefore, ice layers do not need to be accounted for in gas transport models at NEEM. However, the microstructure of these ice layers indicates that larger melting events could significantly bias ice core records.

Description: In this paper ensembles of forecasts (of up to six hours) are studied from a convection-permitting model with a representation of model error due to unresolved processes. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) used is an experimental convection-permitting version of the UK Met Office's 24-member Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The method of representing model error variability, which perturbs parameters within the model's parameterisation schemes, has been modified and we investigate the impact of applying this scheme in different ways. These are: a control ensemble where all ensemble members have the same parameter values; an ensemble where the parameters are different between members, but fixed in time; and ensembles where the parameters are updated randomly every 30 or 60 min. The choice of parameters and their ranges of variability have been determined from expert opinion and parameter sensitivity tests. A case of frontal rain over the southern UK has been chosen, which has a multi-banded rainfall structure. The consequences of including model error variability in the case studied are mixed and are summarised as follows. The multiple banding, evident in the radar, is not captured for any single member. However, the single band is positioned in some members where a secondary band is present in the radar. This is found for all ensembles studied. Adding model error variability with fixed parameters in time does increase the ensemble spread for near-surface variables like wind and temperature, but can actually decrease the spread of the rainfall. Perturbing the parameters periodically throughout the forecast does not further increase the spread and exhibits "jumpiness" in the spread at times when the parameters are perturbed. Adding model error variability gives an improvement in forecast skill after the first 2–3 h of the forecast for near-surface temperature and relative humidity. For precipitation skill scores, adding model error variability has the effect of improving the skill in the first 1–2 h of the forecast, but then of reducing the skill after that. Complementary experiments were performed where the only difference between members was the set of parameter values (i.e. no initial condition variability). The resulting spread was found to be significantly less than the spread from initial condition variability alone.

Description: To obtain a comprehensive picture on the spatial distribution of water soluble organic nitrogen (WSON) in marine aerosols, samples were collected during research cruises in the tropical and south Atlantic Ocean and during a one year period (2005) over the southern Indian Ocean (Amsterdam island). Samples have been analyzed for both organic and inorganic forms of nitrogen and the factors controlling their levels have been examined. Fine mode WSON was found to play a significant role in the remote marine atmosphere with enhanced biogenic activity, with concentrations of WSON (11.3 ± 3.3 nmol N m–3) accounting for about 84% of the total dissolved nitrogen (TDN). Such levels are similar to those observed in the polluted marine atmosphere of the eastern Mediterranean (11.6 ± 14.0 nmol N m–3). Anthropogenic activities were found to be an important source of atmospheric WSON as evidenced by the ten times higher levels in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than in the remote Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the higher contribution of WSON to TDN (40%) in the SH, compared to the NH (20%), underlines the important role of organic nitrogen in remote marine areas. Finally, Sahara dust was also identified as a significant source of WSON in the coarse mode aerosols of the NH.

Description: Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for Alaska, we provide a baseline of terrestrial carbon cycle structural and parametric uncertainty, defined as the multi-model standard deviation (σ) against the mean (x) for each quantity. Mean annual uncertainty (σ/x) was largest for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (−0.01± 0.19 kg C m−2 yr−1), then net primary production (NPP) (0.14 ± 0.33 kg C m−2 yr−1), autotrophic respiration (Ra) (0.09 ± 0.20 kg C m−2 yr−1), gross primary production (GPP) (0.22 ± 0.50 kg C m−2 yr−1), ecosystem respiration (Re) (0.23 ± 0.38 kg C m−2 yr−1), CH4 flux (2.52 ± 4.02 g CH4 m−2 yr−1), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (0.14 ± 0.20 kg C m−2 yr−1), and soil carbon (14.0± 9.2 kg C m−2). The spatial patterns in regional carbon stocks and fluxes varied widely with some models showing NEE for Alaska as a strong carbon sink, others as a strong carbon source, while still others as carbon neutral. Additionally, a feedback (i.e., sensitivity) analysis was conducted of 20th century NEE to CO2 fertilization (β) and climate (γ), which showed that uncertainty in γ was 2x larger than that of β, with neither indicating that the Alaskan Arctic is shifting towards a certain net carbon sink or source. Finally, AmeriFlux data are used at two sites in the Alaskan Arctic to evaluate the regional patterns; observed seasonal NEE was captured within multi-model uncertainty. This assessment of carbon cycle uncertainties may be used as a baseline for the improvement of experimental and modeling activities, as well as a reference for future trajectories in carbon cycling with climate change in the Alaskan Arctic.

Description: Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of these changes at global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we compare simulated runoff from six terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), five reanalysis products, and one gridded surface station product with observations from a network of stream gauges in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2005. We evaluate the consistency of simulated runoff with stream gauge data at the CONUS and water resource region scale, as well as examining similarity across TBMs and reanalysis products at the grid cell scale. Mean runoff across all simulated products and regions varies widely (range: 71–356 mm yr-1) relative to observed continental-scale runoff (209 mm yr-1). Across all 12 products only two are within 10% of the observed value and only four exhibit Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values in excess of 0.8. Region-level mismatch exhibits a weak pattern of overestimation in western and underestimation in eastern regions; although two products are systematically biased across all regions. In contrast, bias in a temporal sense, within region by water year, is highly consistent. Although gridded composite TBM and reanalysis runoff show some regional similarities for 2001–2005 with CONUS means, individual product values are highly variable. To further constrain simulated runoff and to link model-observation mismatch to model structural characteristics would require watershed-level simulation studies coupled with river routing schemes, standardized forcing data, and explicit consideration of water cycle management.

Description: Quantification of regional greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes is essential for establishing mitigation strategies and evaluating their effectiveness. Here, we used multiple top-down approaches and multiple trace gas observations at a tall tower to estimate GHG regional fluxes and evaluate the GHG fluxes derived from bottom-up approaches. We first applied the eddy covariance, equilibrium, inverse modeling (CarbonTracker), and flux aggregation methods using three years of carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements on a 244 m tall tower in the Upper Midwest, USA. We then applied the equilibrium method for estimating methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes with one-month high-frequency CH4 and N2O gradient measurements on the tall tower and one-year concentration measurements on a nearby tall tower, and evaluated the uncertainties of this application. The results indicate that: (1) the flux aggregation, eddy covariance, the equilibrium method, and the CarbonTracker product all gave similar seasonal patterns of the regional CO2 flux (105–106 km2), but that the equilibrium method underestimated the July CO2 flux by 52–69%. (2) The annual budget varied among these methods from 74 to −131 g C-CO2 m−2 yr−1, indicating a large uncertainty in the annual CO2 flux estimation. (3) The regional CH4 and N2O emissions according to a top-down method were at least six and two times higher than the emissions from a bottom-up inventory (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research), respectively. (4) The global warming potentials of the CH4 and N2O emissions were equal in magnitude to the cooling benefit of the regional CO2 uptake. The regional GHG budget, including both biological and anthropogenic origins, is estimated at 7 ± 160 g CO2 eq m−2 yr−1.

Description: Top-down estimates of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 will benefit from the increasing measurement density brought by recent and future additions to the suite of in situ and remote CO2 measurement platforms. In particular, the planned NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) satellite mission will provide greater coverage in cloudy regions, at high latitudes, and at night than passive satellite systems, as well as high precision and accuracy. In a novel approach to quantifying the ability of satellite column measurements to constrain CO2 fluxes, we use a portable library of footprints (surface influence functions) generated by the WRF-STILT Lagrangian transport model in a regional Bayesian synthesis inversion. The regional Lagrangian framework is well suited to make use of ASCENDS observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution, in this case at 1° latitude × 1° longitude and weekly for North America. We consider random measurement errors only, modeled as a function of mission and instrument design specifications along with realistic atmospheric and surface conditions. We find that the ASCENDS observations could potentially reduce flux uncertainties substantially at biome and finer scales. At the 1° × 1°, weekly scale, the largest uncertainty reductions, on the order of 50%, occur where and when there is good coverage by observations with low measurement errors and the a priori uncertainties are large. Uncertainty reductions are smaller for a 1.57 μm candidate wavelength than for a 2.05 μm wavelength, and are smaller for the higher of the two measurement error levels that we consider (1.0 ppm vs. 0.5 ppm clear-sky error at Railroad Valley, Nevada). Uncertainty reductions at the annual, biome scale range from ∼40% to ∼75% across our four instrument design cases, and from ∼65% to ∼85% for the continent as a whole. Our uncertainty reductions at various scales are substantially smaller than those from a global ASCENDS inversion on a coarser grid, demonstrating how quantitative results can depend on inversion methodology. The a posteriori flux uncertainties we obtain, ranging from 0.01 to 0.06 Pg C yr−1 across the biomes, would meet requirements for improved understanding of long-term carbon sinks suggested by a previous study.