ALBERT

Description: This study is conducted in the framework of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and aims at the operational evaluation of an ensemble of 12 regional-scale chemical transport models used to predict air quality over the North American (NA) and European (EU) continents for 2006. The modelled concentrations of ozone and CO, along with the meteorological fields of wind speed (WS) and direction (WD), temperature (T), and relative humidity (RH), are compared against high-quality in-flight measurements collected by instrumented commercial aircraft as part of the Measurements of OZone, water vapour, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides by Airbus In-service airCraft (MOZAIC) programme. The evaluation is carried out for five model domains positioned around four major airports in NA (Portland, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Dallas) and one in Europe (Frankfurt), from the surface to 8.5 km. We compare mean vertical profiles of modelled and measured variables for all airports to compute error and variability statistics, perform analysis of altitudinal error correlation, and examine the seasonal error distribution for ozone, including an estimation of the bias introduced by the lateral boundary conditions (BCs). The results indicate that model performance is highly dependent on the variable, location, season, and height (e.g. surface, planetary boundary layer (PBL) or free troposphere) being analysed. While model performance for T is satisfactory at all sites (correlation coefficient in excess of 0.90 and fractional bias ≤ 0.01 K), WS is not replicated as well within the PBL (exhibiting a positive bias in the first 100 m and also underestimating observed variability), while above 1000 m, the model performance improves (correlation coefficient often above 0.9). The WD at NA airports is found to be biased in the PBL, primarily due to an overestimation of westerly winds. RH is modelled well within the PBL, but in the free troposphere large discrepancies among models are observed, especially in EU. CO mixing ratios show the largest range of modelled-to-observed standard deviations of all the examined species at all heights and for all airports. Correlation coefficients for CO are typically below 0.6 for all sites and heights, and large errors are present at all heights, particularly in the first 250 m. Model performance for ozone in the PBL is generally good, with both bias and error within 20%. Profiles of ozone mixing ratios depend strongly on surface processes, revealed by the sharp gradient in the first 2 km (10 to 20 ppb km−1). Modelled ozone in winter is biased low at all locations in the NA, primarily due to an underestimation of ozone from the BCs. Most of the model error in the PBL is due to surface processes (emissions, transport, photochemistry), while errors originating aloft appear to have relatively limited impact on model performance at the surface. Suggestions for future work include interpretation of the model-to-model variability and common sources of model bias, and linking CO and ozone bias to the bias in the meteorological fields. Based on the results from this study, we suggest possible in-depth, process-oriented and diagnostic investigations to be carried out next.

Description: The evaluation of regional air quality models is a challenging task, not only for the intrinsic complexity of the topic but also in view of the difficulties in finding sufficiently abundant, harmonized and time/space-well-distributed measurement data. This study, conducted in the framework of AQMEII (Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative), evaluates 4-D model predictions obtained from 15 modelling groups and relating to the air quality of the full year of 2006 over the North American and European continents. The modelled variables are ozone, CO, wind speed and direction, temperature, and relative humidity. Model evaluation is supported by the high quality in-flight measurements collected by instrumented commercial aircrafts in the context of the MOZAIC programme. The models are evaluated at five selected domains positioned around major airports, four in North America (Portland, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Dallas) and one in Europe (Frankfurt). Due to the extraordinary scale of the exercise (number of models and variables, spatial and temporal extent), this study is primarily aimed at illustrating the potential for using MOZAIC data for regional-scale evaluation and the capabilities of models to simulate concentration and meteorological fields in the vertical rather than just at the ground. We apply various approaches, metrics, and methods to analyze this complex dataset. Results of the investigation indicate that, while the observed meteorological fields are modelled with some success, modelling CO in and above the boundary layer remains a challenge and modelling ozone also has room for significant improvement. We note, however, that the high sensitivity of models to height, season, location, and metric makes the results rather difficult to interpret and to generalize. With this work, though, we set the stage for future process-oriented and in-depth diagnostic analyses.

Description: The Northern Hemispheric winter is disturbed by large scale variability mainly caused by Planetary Waves (PWs), which interact with the mean flow and thus result in Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs). The effects of a SSW on the middle atmosphere are an increase of stratospheric and a simultaneous decrease of mesospheric temperature as well as a wind reversal to westward wind from the mesosphere to the stratosphere. In most cases these disturbances are strongest at polar latitudes, get weaker toward the south and vanish at mid-latitudes around 50° to 60° N as for example during the winter 2005/06. However, other events like in 2009, 2010 and 2012 show a similar or even stronger westward wind at mid- than at polar latitudes either in the mesosphere or in the stratosphere during the SSW. This study uses local meteor and MF-radar measurements, global satellite observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and assimilated model data from MERRA (Modern-ERA Retrospective analysis for research and Applications). We compare differences in the latitudinal structure of the zonal wind, temperature and PW activity between a "normal" event, where the event in 2006 was chosen representatively, and the latitudinal displaced events in 2009, 2010 and 2012. A continuous westward wind band between the pole and 20° N is observed during the displaced events. Furthermore, distinctive temperature differences at mid-latitudes occur before the displaced warmings compared to 2006 as well as a southward extended stratospheric warming afterwards. These differences between the normal SSW in 2006 and the displaced events in 2009, 2010 and 2012 are linked to an increased PW activity between 30° N and 50° N and the changed stationary wave flux in the stratosphere around the displaced events compared to 2006.