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  • Wiley  (18)
  • American Meteorological Society  (2)
  • Copernicus
  • 2010-2014  (20)
  • 2000-2004
  • 1975-1979
  • 2012  (20)
  • 1
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    On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-03-16
    Description: This article examines whether the temporal clustering of flood events can be explained in terms of climate variability or time-varying land-surface state variables. The point process modelling framework for flood occurrence is based on Cox processes, which can be represented as Poisson processes with randomly varying rate of occurrence. In the special case that the rate of occurrence is deterministic, the Cox process simplifies to a Poisson process. Poisson processes represent flood occurrences which are not clustered. The Cox regression model is used to examine the dependence of the rate of occurrence on covariate processes. We focus on 41 stream gauge stations in Iowa, with discharge records covering the period 1950–2009. The climate covariates used in this study are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific/North American Teleconnection (PNA). To examine the influence of land-surface forcing on flood occurrence, the antecedent 30 d rainfall accumulation is considered. In 27 out of 41 stations, either PNA or NAO, or both are selected as significant predictors, suggesting that flood occurrence in Iowa is influenced by large-scale climate indices. Antecedent rainfall, used as a proxy for soil moisture, plays an important role in driving the occurrence of flooding in Iowa. These results point to clustering as an important element of the flood occurrence process. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 2
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    Estimation of trends in extreme melt-season duration at Svalbard (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-04-15
    Description: A time series of monthly mean surface temperatures taken at Svalbard airport, Spitzbergen, for the period 1912–2010 was examined for changes in melt-season length. The annual melt-season length was constructed from daily temperature estimates based on the monthly data using smoothing splines. We argue that the changes in annual melt-season length are linked to variability in regional sea surface temperatures, the mean Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. A regression model for the melt-season length with these three parameters as predictors, explained about 40% of the observed variance. The annual mean melt season for the period from 1912 to 2010 was estimated to be 108 days, and the linear trend was 0.17 days/year. The risk of having positive extremes in the melt season increased with increasing Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the regional sea surface temperatures. On the basis of our study of past observations, the 100-year return length of the melt season at Svalbard was predicted to change from the current 95% confidence interval of 131 (108, 138) days to 175 (109, 242) days with 1 °C warming of both regional sea surface temperature and the mean Northern Hemisphere surface temperature. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 3
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    Why dry? Investigating the future evolution of the Caribbean Low Level Jet to explain projected Caribbean drying (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-04-15
    Description: Under global warming the Caribbean is projected to be significantly drier by century's end during its primary rainy season from May to November. The PRECIS regional model is used to simulate the end-of-century (2071–2100) manifestation of the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming scenarios. The CLLJ is a feature of the Intra-American seas which during its July peak is dynamically linked to a brief mid-summer drying and interruption of the Caribbean rainy season. The regional model captures the CLLJ's present-day spatial and temporal characteristics reasonably well, simulating both the boreal winter (February) and summer (July) peaks. Under global warming there is an intensification of the CLLJ's core strength from May through November. The intensification is such that by October the CLLJ is of comparable core strength to its present-day peak in July. The persistence of the strong CLLJ beyond July and through November is linked to the perpetuation of a dry pattern in the Caribbean in the future. In contrast, the boreal winter manifestation of the CLLJ is largely unaltered in the future. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 4
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    On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-04-15
    Description: This article examines whether the temporal clustering of flood events can be explained in terms of climate variability or time-varying land-surface state variables. The point process modelling framework for flood occurrence is based on Cox processes, which can be represented as Poisson processes with randomly varying rate of occurrence. In the special case that the rate of occurrence is deterministic, the Cox process simplifies to a Poisson process. Poisson processes represent flood occurrences which are not clustered. The Cox regression model is used to examine the dependence of the rate of occurrence on covariate processes. We focus on 41 stream gauge stations in Iowa, with discharge records covering the period 1950–2009. The climate covariates used in this study are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific/North American Teleconnection (PNA). To examine the influence of land-surface forcing on flood occurrence, the antecedent 30 d rainfall accumulation is considered. In 27 out of 41 stations, either PNA or NAO, or both are selected as significant predictors, suggesting that flood occurrence in Iowa is influenced by large-scale climate indices. Antecedent rainfall, used as a proxy for soil moisture, plays an important role in driving the occurrence of flooding in Iowa. These results point to clustering as an important element of the flood occurrence process. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 5
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    An assessment of geochemical preparation methods prior to organic carbon concentration and carbon isotope ratio analyses of fine-grained sedimentary rocks (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-09-13
    Description: This study summarizes organic carbon isotope (δ13C) and total organic carbon (TOC) data from a series of tests undertaken to provide an appropriate methodology for pre-analysis treatment of mudstones from an Upper Carboniferous sedimentary succession, in order to develop a consistent preparation procedure. The main treatments involved removing both inorganic carbonate and hydrocarbons (which might be extraneous) before δ13C and TOC analysis. The results show that decarbonating using hydrochloric acid causes significant reduction in δ13C and total carbon (TC) of the bulk material due to the removal of inorganic carbonate. These changes are most pronounced where soluble calcium carbonate (rather than Ca-Mg-Fe carbonate) is present. Deoiled samples show only slightly higher mean δ13C where visible bitumen was extracted from the bulk sample. Moreover, the isotopic signatures of the extracts are closely correlated to those of their respective bulk samples, suggesting that small yields of hydrocarbons were generated in situ with no isotopic fractionation. In addition, further δ13C and TC analyses were performed on samples where mixing of oil-based drilling mud with brecciated core material had been undertaken. Brecciated mudstone material did not display distinct isotopic signals compared to the surrounding fine-grained material. Overall we show that the most accurate assessment of bulk organic carbon isotopes and concentration in these samples can be achieved through decarbonating the material prior to measurement via the ‘rinse method’. However, our results support recent findings that pre-analysis acid treatments can cause variable and unpredictable errors in δ13C and TOC values. We believe that, despite these uncertainties, the findings presented here can be applied to paleoenvironmental studies on organic matter contained within sedimentary rocks over a range of geological ages and compositions.
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-2027
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
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    Seasonal variability of upper ocean heat content in Drake Passage (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-04-11
    Description: Mixed-layer depth (MLD) is often used in a mixed-layer heat budget to relate air-sea exchange to changes in the near-surface ocean temperature. In this study, reanalysis heat flux products and profiles from a 15 year time series of high-resolution, near-repeat expendable bathythermograph/expendable conductivity-temperature-depth (XBT/XCTD) sampling in Drake Passage are used to examine the nature of MLD variations and their impact on a first-order, one-dimensional heat budget for the upper ocean in the regions north and south of the Polar Front. Results show that temperature and density criteria yield different MLD estimates, and that these estimates can be sensitive to the choice of threshold. The difficulty of defining MLD in low-stratification regions, the large amplitude of wintertime MLD (up to 700 m in Drake Passage), and the natural small-scale variability of the upper ocean result in considerable cast-to-cast variability in MLD, with changes of up to 200 m over 10 km horizontal distance. In contrast, the heat content over a fixed-depth interval of the upper ocean shows greater cast-to-cast stability and clearly measures the ocean response to surface heat fluxes. In particular, an annual cycle in upper ocean heat content is in good agreement with the annual cycle in heat flux forcing, which explains ∼24% of the variance in heat content above 400 m depth north of the Polar Front and ∼63% of the variance in heat content south of the Polar Front.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 7
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    Why dry? Investigating the future evolution of the Caribbean Low Level Jet to explain projected Caribbean drying (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-03-20
    Description: Under global warming the Caribbean is projected to be significantly drier by century's end during its primary rainy season from May to November. The PRECIS regional model is used to simulate the end-of-century (2071–2100) manifestation of the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming scenarios. The CLLJ is a feature of the Intra-American seas which during its July peak is dynamically linked to a brief mid-summer drying and interruption of the Caribbean rainy season. The regional model captures the CLLJ's present-day spatial and temporal characteristics reasonably well, simulating both the boreal winter (February) and summer (July) peaks. Under global warming there is an intensification of the CLLJ's core strength from May through November. The intensification is such that by October the CLLJ is of comparable core strength to its present-day peak in July. The persistence of the strong CLLJ beyond July and through November is linked to the perpetuation of a dry pattern in the Caribbean in the future. In contrast, the boreal winter manifestation of the CLLJ is largely unaltered in the future. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 8
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    Small-scale convection at a continental back-arc to craton transition: Application to the southern Canadian Cordillera (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-01-28
    Description: A step in the depth of the lithosphere base, associated with lateral variations in the upper mantle temperature structure, can trigger mantle flow that is referred to as edge-driven convection. This paper aims at outlining the implications of such edge-driven flow at a lateral temperature transition from a hot and thin to a cold and thick lithosphere of a continental back-arc. This configuration finds application in the southern Canadian Cordillera, where a hot and thin back-arc is adjacent to the cold and thick North American Craton. A series of geodynamical models tested the thermodynamical behavior of the lithosphere and upper mantle induced by a step in lithosphere thickness. The mantle flow patterns, thickness and heat flow evolution of the lithosphere, and surface topography are examined. We find that the lateral temperature transition shifts cratonward due to the vigorous edge-driven mantle flow that erodes the craton edge, unless the craton has a distinct high viscosity mantle lithosphere. The mantle lithosphere viscosity structure determines the impact of edge-driven flow on crustal deformation and surface heat flow; a dry olivine rheology for the craton prevents the edge from migrating and supports a persistent surface heat flow contrast. These phenomena are well illustrated at the transition from the hot Canadian Cordillera to craton that is supported by a rheological change and that coincides with a lateral change in surface heat flow. Fast seismic wave velocities observed in the upper mantle cratonward of the step can be explained as downwellings induced by the edge-driven flow.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 9
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    On the Robustness of Emergent Constraints Used in Multimodel Climate Change Projections of Arctic Warming (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-01-15
    Description: Statistical relationships between future and historical model runs in multimodel ensembles (MMEs) are increasingly exploited to make more constrained projections of climate change. However, such emergent constraints may be spurious and can arise because of shared (common) errors in a particular MME or because of overly influential models. This study assesses the robustness of emergent constraints used for Arctic warming by comparison of such constraints in ensembles generated by the two most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments: CMIP3 and CMIP5. An ensemble regression approach is used to estimate emergent constraints in Arctic wintertime surface air temperature change over the twenty-first century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario in CMIP3 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario in CMIP5. To take account of different scenarios, this study focuses on polar amplification by using temperature responses at each grid point that are scaled by the global mean temperature response for each climate model. In most locations, the estimated emergent constraints are reassuringly similar in CMIP3 and CMIP5 and differences could have easily arisen from sampling variation. However, there is some indication that the emergent constraint and polar amplification is substantially larger in CMIP5 over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea. Residual diagnostics identify one climate model in CMIP5 that has a notable influence on estimated emergent constraints over the Bering Sea and one in CMIP3 that that has a notable influence more widely along the sea ice edge and into midlatitudes over the western North Atlantic.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 10
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    Inbreeding alters volatile signalling phenotypes and influences tri-trophic interactions in horsenettle (Solanum carolinense L.) (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-01-19
    Print ISSN: 1461-023X
    Electronic ISSN: 1461-0248
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley
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