ALBERT

All Library Books, journals and Electronic Records Telegrafenberg

feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
Filter
  • American Meteorological Society  (4)
  • American Meteorological Society (AMS)
  • Copernicus
  • 2005-2009  (4)
  • 2000-2004
  • 2008  (4)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2008-05-15
    Description: This study presents various statistical methods for exploring and summarizing spatial extremal properties in large gridpoint datasets. Extremal properties are inferred from the subset of gridpoint values that exceed sufficiently high, time-varying thresholds. A simple approach is presented for how to choose the thresholds so as to avoid sampling biases from nonstationary differential trends within the annual cycle. The excesses are summarized by estimating parameters of a flexible generalized Pareto model that can account for spatial and temporal variation in the excess distributions. The effect of potentially explanatory factors (e.g., ENSO) on the distribution of extremes can be easily investigated using this model. Smooth spatially pooled estimates are obtained by fitting the model over neighboring grid points while accounting for possible spatial variation across these points. Extreme value theory methods are also presented for how to investigate the temporal clustering and spatial dependency (teleconnections) of extremes. The methods are illustrated using Northern Hemisphere monthly mean gridded temperatures for June–August (JJA) summers from 1870 to 2005.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 2
    Publication Date: 2008-08-01
    Description: The Brier score is widely used for the verification of probability forecasts. It also forms the basis of other frequently used probability scores such as the rank probability score. By conditioning (stratifying) on the issued forecast probabilities, the Brier score can be decomposed into the sum of three components: uncertainty, reliability, and resolution. This Brier score decomposition can provide useful information to the forecast provider about how the forecasts can be improved. Rather than stratify on all values of issued probability, it is common practice to calculate the Brier score components by first partitioning the issued probabilities into a small set of bins. This note shows that for such a procedure, an additional two within-bin components are needed in addition to the three traditional components of the Brier score. The two new components can be combined with the resolution component to make a generalized resolution component that is less sensitive to choice of bin width than is the traditional resolution component. The difference between the generalized resolution term and the conventional resolution term also quantifies how forecast skill is degraded when issuing categorized probabilities to users. The ideas are illustrated using an example of multimodel ensemble seasonal forecasts of equatorial sea surface temperatures.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 3
    Publication Date: 2008-04-01
    Description: Verification is an important part of any forecasting system. It is usually achieved by computing the value of some measure or score that indicates how good the forecasts are. Many possible verification measures have been proposed, and to choose between them a number of desirable properties have been defined. For probability forecasts of a binary event, two of the best known of these properties are propriety and equitability. A proof that the two properties are incompatible for a wide class of verification measures is given in this paper, after briefly reviewing the two properties and some recent attempts to improve properties for the well-known Brier skill score.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 4
    Publication Date: 2008-01-01
    Description: A global database of infrared (IR) land surface emissivity is introduced to support more accurate retrievals of atmospheric properties such as temperature and moisture profiles from multispectral satellite radiance measurements. Emissivity is derived using input from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) operational land surface emissivity product (MOD11). The baseline fit method, based on a conceptual model developed from laboratory measurements of surface emissivity, is applied to fill in the spectral gaps between the six emissivity wavelengths available in MOD11. The six available MOD11 wavelengths span only three spectral regions (3.8–4, 8.6, and 11–12 μm), while the retrievals of atmospheric temperature and moisture from satellite IR sounder radiances require surface emissivity at higher spectral resolution. Emissivity in the database presented here is available globally at 10 wavelengths (3.6, 4.3, 5.0, 5.8, 7.6, 8.3, 9.3, 10.8, 12.1, and 14.3 μm) with 0.05° spatial resolution. The wavelengths in the database were chosen as hinge points to capture as much of the shape of the higher-resolution emissivity spectra as possible between 3.6 and 14.3 μm. The surface emissivity from this database is applied to the IR regression retrieval of atmospheric moisture profiles using radiances from MODIS, and improvement is shown over retrievals made with the typical assumption of constant emissivity.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...