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  • Other Sources  (19)
  • 2015-2019  (19)
  • 2017  (19)
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  • 2015-2019  (19)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing ENSO phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-11-09
    Description: The sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Atlantic exhibits pronounced variability on interannual time scales being associated with wind and rainfall anomalies within the tropical Atlantic region. It has been proposed that the interannual variability of SST is partly driven by the variability of the deep equatorial zonal circulation, the so-called equatorial deep jets (EDJs). The EDJs may be described as a superposition of quasi-resonant equatorial basin modes and the direction of vertical phase propagation implies that their energy is propagating towards the surface. Furthermore, recent findings revealed that the EDJs in turn are maintained by intra-seasonal waves that are generated by the barotropic and baroclinic instability of the near-surface circulation. This talk will present the relevant mechanisms that are involved in the conversion of energy from one type of variability to another, i.e. from chaotic intra-seasonal surface variability via deep interannual zonal variability to interannual surface climate variability, with a special focus on the maintenance of the EDJs by intra-seasonal waves. Since EDJs, a key component of the mechanism discussed above, are not well represented in state-of-the-art Ocean General Circulation Models, preliminary findings on the sensitivity of the EDJs to model parameters and configuration are presented.
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: slideshow
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: Low prediction skill in the tropical Pacific is a common problem in decadal prediction systems, especially for lead years 2–5 which, in many systems, is lower than in uninitialized experiments. On the other hand, the tropical Pacific is of almost worldwide climate relevance through its teleconnections with other tropical and extratropical regions and also of importance for global mean temperature. Understanding the causes of the reduced prediction skill is thus of major interest for decadal climate predictions. We look into the problem of reduced prediction skill by analyzing the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcasts for the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and performing a sensitivity experiment in which hindcasts are initialized from a model run forced only by surface wind stress. In both systems, sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is successfully initialized, but most skill is lost at lead years 2–5. Utilizing the sensitivity experiment enables us to pin down the reason for the reduced prediction skill in MPI-ESM to errors in wind stress used for the initialization. A spurious trend in the wind stress forcing displaces the equatorial thermocline in MPI-ESM unrealistically. When the climate model is then switched into its forecast mode, the recovery process triggers artificial El Niño and La Niña events at the surface. Our results demonstrate the importance of realistic wind stress products for the initialization of decadal predictions
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
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    AGU
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122 (1). pp. 602-616.
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: A multi-mode, linear reduced-gravity model, driven by ERA-Interim monthly mean wind stress anomalies, is used to investigate interannual variability in tropical Pacific sea level as seen in satellite altimeter data. The model output is fitted to the altimeter data along the equator, in order to derive the vertical profile for the model forcing, showing that a signature from modes higher than mode six cannot be extracted from the altimeter data. It is shown that the model has considerable skill at capturing interannual sea level variability both on and off the equator. The correlation between modelled and satellite-derived sea level data exceeds 0.8 over a wide range of longitudes along the equator and readily captures the observed ENSO events. Overall, the combination of the first, second, third and fifth modes can provide a robust estimate of the interannual sea level variability, the second mode being dominant. A remarkable feature of both the model and the altimeter data is the presence of a pivot point in the western Pacific on the equator. We show that the westward displacement of the pivot point from the centre of the basin is strongly influenced by the fact that most of the wind stress variance is found in the western part of the basin. We also show that the Sverdrup transport is not fundamental to the dynamics of the recharge/discharge mechanism in our model, although the spatial structure of the wind forcing does play a role in setting the amplitude of the “warm water volume”.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: For mid-latitude Rossby waves (RWs) in the atmosphere, the expression for the energy flux for use in a model diagnosis, and without relying on a Fourier analysis or a ray theory, has previously been derived using quasi-geostrophic equations and is singular at the equator. By investigating the analytical solution of both equatorial and mid-latitude waves, the authors derive an exact universal expression for the energy flux which is able to indicate the direction of the group velocity at all latitudes for linear shallow water waves. This is achieved by introducing a streamfunction as given by the inversion equation of Ertel’s potential vorticity, a novel aspect for considering the energy flux. For ease of diagnosis from a model, an approximate version of the universal expression is explored and illustrated for a forced/dissipative equatorial basin mode simulated by a single-layer oceanic model that includes both mid-latitude RWs and equatorial waves. Equatorial Kelvin Waves (KWs) propagate eastward along the equator, are partially redirected poleward as coastal KWs at the eastern boundary of the basin, and then shed mid-latitude RWs that propagate westward into the basin interior. The connection of the equatorial and coastal waveguides has been successfully illustrated by the approximate expression of the group-velocity-based energy flux of the present study. This will allow for tropical-extratropical interactions in oceanic and atmospheric model outputs to be diagnosed in terms of an energy cycle in a future study.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
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    In:  [Talk] In: EGU General Assembly 2017, 23.-28.04.2017, Vienna, Austria .
    Publication Date: 2017-05-22
    Description: The influence of some major tropical modes of variability on northern hemisphere regional blocking frequency variability during boreal winter is investigated and the most important findings will be presented here. Reanalysis data and an experiment with the ECMWF model using relaxation towards the ERA-40 reanalysis data inside the tropics are used. The tropical modes under investigation are El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the upper tropospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal wind (U150). Comparing the impact on blocking frequency of these tropical modes with the impact of two extratropical modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), it is found that the tropical influence is of comparable amplitude. Focusing on the Euro-Atlantic sector, it is found that cold ENSO events, late MJO phases, as well as suppressed MJO are all leading to enhanced blocking frequency at lower to middle latitudes (south of 48N) on weekly to monthly timescales. At higher latitudes (north of 48N) over Europe, the blocking anomalies associated with ENSO and the MJO are less clear than at lower latitudes. Instead, at higher latitudes (north of 48N), the westerly (easterly) phase of U150 is associated with reduced (enhanced) blocking frequency.
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 7
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    In:  [Talk] In: EGU General Assembly 2017, 23.-28.04.2017, Vienna, Austria .
    Publication Date: 2017-04-28
    Description: The dynamics and temporal evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is investigated in a coupled climate model. The model contains a correction to the North Atlantic flow field to improve the path of the North Atlantic Current, thereby alleviating the surface cold bias, a common problem with climate models, and offering a unique opportunity to study the AMV in a model. Changes in greenhouse gas forcing or aerosol loading are not considered. A striking feature of our results is the contrast between the western and eastern sides of the subpolar gyre in the model. On the western side, heat supply from the ocean plays a major role, with most of this heat being given up to the atmosphere in the warm phase, largely symmetrically about the time of the AMV maximum. By contrast, on the eastern side, the ocean gains heat from the atmosphere, with relatively little role for ocean heat supply in the years before the AMV maximum. Thereafter, the balance changes with heat now being removed from the eastern side by the ocean leading to a reducing ocean heat content, behavior we associate with the establishment of an intergyre gyre at the time of the AMV maximum. In the warm phase, melting sea-ice leads to a freshening of surface waters northeast of Greenland which travel southward into the Irminger and Labrador Sea, shutting down convection and terminating the AMV warm phase.
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 8
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    In:  [Talk] In: MiKlip2 7 th Status Meeting Module A - Recommendations for DS5, 05.09.2017, Hamburg, Germany .
    Publication Date: 2018-10-02
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-11-09
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-06-27
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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