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  • Articles  (2)
  • Wiley  (2)
  • Institute of Physics (IOP)
  • Journal of Geophysical Research JGR - Space Physics  (1)
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics  (1)
  • 7531
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  • Articles  (2)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract Severe geomagnetic storms caused by the solar wind disturbances have harmful influences on the operation of modern equipment and systems. The modeling and forecasting of AE index are extremely useful to understand the geomagnetic substorms. This study presents a novel cloud‐nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model to predict AE index 1 hr ahead. The cloud‐NARX model provides AE index forecasting results, with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 on the data of whole year 2015. The benchmarks on the data of the two interested periods of 17–21 March 2015 and 22–26 June 2015 are presented. The presented model uses uncertainty “cloud” model and cloud transformation to quantify the uncertainty throughout the structure detection, parameter estimation, and model prediction. The new predicted band can be generated to forecast AE index with confidence interval. The proposed method provides a new way to evaluate the model based on uncertainty analysis, revealing the reliability of model, and visualize the bias of model prediction.
    Print ISSN: 2169-9380
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-9402
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-06-16
    Description: We explore the phase relationship between the poloidal mode ULF wave electric field oscillations and drift-bounce resonant oxygen ions under the resonant condition of N=2 at the magnetic equator. Using Cluster data from 2001 to 2004, we identify 55 fundamental poloidal mode wave events, among which 42 show “negative slope" pitch angle dispersion signatures in the southern hemisphere, 11 show “positive slope" dispersion in the northern hemisphere, and 2 near-equatorial events are associated with in-phase field-aligned signatures. For each event, the off-equatorial resonant ions are traced along their bouncing trajectories to determine the last time they moved across the equator. The resulting time-series of the resonant oxygen ion fluxes at the equator are found to be statistically in anti-phase with the wave electric fields. The resonant ion flux variation depends on both ion energy change and radial transportation. This anti-phase relationship in statistics suggests two possibilities: (1) the fundamental poloidal mode wave electric fields are generally characterized by electric field intensity peaking near the magnetic equator if the flux variation is mainly caused by energy change; (2) the radial gradient of phase space density is positive if the flux variation caused by radial transportation is dominant .
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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