ALBERT

Description: Circumpolar expansion of tall shrubs and trees into Arctic tundra is widely thought to be occurring as a result of recent climate warming, but little quantitative evidence exists for northern Siberia, which encompasses the world's largest forest-tundra ecotonal belt. We quantified changes in tall shrub and tree canopy cover in eleven, widely-distributed Siberian ecotonal landscapes by comparing very-high-resolution photography from the Cold War-era “Gambit” and “Corona” satellite surveillance systems (1965-1969) with modern imagery. We also analyzed within-landscape patterns of vegetation change to evaluate the susceptibility of different landscape components to tall shrub and tree increase. The total cover of tall shrubs and trees increased in nine of eleven ecotones. In northwest Siberia, alder ( Alnus ) shrubland cover increased 5.3 – 25.9% in five ecotones. In Taymyr and Yakutia, larch ( Larix ) cover increased 3.0 – 6.7% within three ecotones, but declined 16.8% at a fourth ecotone due to thaw of ice-rich permafrost. In Chukotka, the total cover of alder and dwarf pine ( Pinus ) increased 6.1% within one ecotone and was little-changed at a second ecotone. Within most landscapes, shrub and tree increase was linked to specific geomorphic settings, especially those with active disturbance regimes such as permafrost patterned-ground, floodplains, and colluvial hillslopes. Mean summer temperatures increased at most ecotones since the mid-1960s, but rates of shrub and tree canopy cover expansion were not strongly correlated with temperature trends and were better correlated with mean annual precipitation. We conclude that shrub and tree cover is increasing in tundra ecotones across most of northern Siberia, but rates of increase vary widely regionally and at the landscape-scale. Our results indicate that extensive changes can occur within decades in moist, shrub-dominated ecotones, as in northwest Siberia, while changes are likely to occur much more slowly in the highly continental, larch-dominated ecotones of central and eastern Siberia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Research on the terrestrial C balance focuses largely on measuring and predicting responses of ecosystem-scale production and respiration to changing temperatures and hydrologic regimes. However, landscape morphology can modify the availability of resources from year to year by imposing physical gradients that redistribute soil water and other biophysical variables within ecosystems. This paper demonstrates that the well-established biophysical relationship between soil respiration and soil moisture interacts with topographic structure to create bidirectional (i.e., opposite) responses of soil respiration to soil water availability within the landscape. Based on soil respiration measurements taken at a subalpine forest in central Montana, we found that locations with high drainage areas (i.e., lowlands and wet areas of the forest) had higher cumulative soil respiration in dry years, whereas locations with low drainage areas (i.e., uplands and dry areas of the forest) had higher cumulative soil respiration in wet years. Our results indicate that for 80.9% of the forest soil respiration is likely to increase during wet years, whereas for 19.1% of the forest soil respiration is likely to decrease under the same hydrologic conditions. This emergent, bidirectional behavior is generated from the interaction of three relatively simple elements (parabolic soil biophysics, the relative distribution of landscape positions, and inter-annual climate variability), indicating that terrain complexity is an important mediator of the landscape-scale soil C response to climate. These results highlight that evaluating and predicting ecosystem-scale soil C response to climate fluctuation requires detailed characterization of biophysical-topographic interactions in addition to biophysical-climate interactions.

Description: Many ecosystems around the world are rapidly deteriorating due to both local and global pressures, and perhaps none so precipitously as coral reefs. Management of coral reefs through maintenance (e.g., marine-protected areas, catchment management to improve water quality), restoration, as well as global and national governmental agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., the 2015 Paris Agreement) is critical for the persistence of coral reefs. Despite these initiatives, the health and abundance of corals reefs are rapidly declining and other solutions will soon be required. We have recently discussed options for using assisted evolution (i.e., selective breeding, assisted gene flow, conditioning or epigenetic programming, and the manipulation of the coral microbiome) as a means to enhance environmental stress tolerance of corals and the success of coral reef restoration efforts. The 2014–2016 global coral bleaching event has sharpened the focus on such interventionist approaches. We highlight the necessity for consideration of alternative (e.g., hybrid) ecosystem states, discuss traits of resilient corals and coral reef ecosystems, and propose a decision tree for incorporating assisted evolution into restoration initiatives to enhance climate resilience of coral reefs. Many ecosystems around the world are rapidly deteriorating due to both local and global pressures including climate change, and perhaps none so precipitously as coral reefs. While root causes of human-driven climate change should be addressed, additional solutions are urgently required to ensure coral reefs persist into the future. In this Opinion piece, we address how breeding coral stock with enhanced environmental stress tolerance (assisted evolution) can increase reef resilience and contribute to the success of coral reef restoration efforts. We discuss traits of resilient corals and coral reef ecosystems, and provide guidelines for incorporating assisted evolution into restoration initiatives.

Description: Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general ‘greening’ trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two. Potential Arctic vegetation can be 5% more than currently estimated through satellite remote sensing. Herbivory accounts for the 5% of biomass discrepancy. Such discrepancy is more profound in regions with high intensity of herbivory.

Description: In the context of ongoing climatic warming, certain landscapes could be near a tipping point where relatively small changes to their fire regimes or their postfire forest recovery dynamics could bring about extensive forest loss, with associated effects on biodiversity and carbon-cycle feedbacks to climate change. Such concerns are particularly valid in the Klamath Region of northern California and southwestern Oregon, where severe fire initially converts montane conifer forests to systems dominated by broadleaf trees and shrubs. Conifers eventually overtop the competing vegetation, but until they do, these systems could be perpetuated by a cycle of reburning. To assess the vulnerability of conifer forests to increased fire activity and altered forest recovery dynamics in a warmer, drier climate, we characterized vegetation dynamics following severe fire in nine fire years over the last three decades across the climatic aridity gradient of montane conifer forests. Postfire conifer recruitment was limited to a narrow window, with 89% of recruitment in the first 4 years, and height growth tended to decrease as the lag between the fire year and the recruitment year increased. Growth reductions at longer lags were more pronounced at drier sites, where conifers comprised a smaller portion of live woody biomass. An interaction between seed-source availability and climatic aridity drove substantial variation in the density of regenerating conifers. With increasing climatic water deficit, higher propagule pressure (i.e., smaller patch sizes for high-severity fire) was needed to support a given conifer seedling density, which implies that projected future increases in aridity could limit postfire regeneration across a growing portion of the landscape. Under a more severe prospective warming scenario, by the end of the century more than half of the area currently capable of supporting montane conifer forest could become subject to minimal conifer regeneration in even moderate-sized (10s of ha) high-severity patches. If climate change drives increases in wildfire activity while delaying postfire forest recovery, forested landscapes such as the Klamath Mountains (NW California/SW Oregon) could be at risk of extensive forest loss. To understand the vulnerability to such changes, we evaluated three decades of vegetation dynamics following high-severity fire across the regional aridity gradient. Conifers faced a highly competitive environment following severe fire. They comprised only a small portion of live woody biomass, and recruitment was limited primarily to the first four years. Seedlings that established later faced pronounced growth suppression, particularly on drier sites. With increasing climatic aridity, more abundant seed sources were needed to support conifer recruitment at densities sufficient to develop a new forest canopy. Under a more severe warming scenario, by the end of the century just over half of the landscape could be at risk of minimal conifer recruitment following severe fire, even in relatively small high-severity patches.