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  • 1
  • 2
    Publication Date: 2013-09-15
    Description: Because of global land surface warming, extreme temperature events are expected to occur more often and more intensely, affecting the growth and development of the major cereal crops in several ways, thus affecting the production component of food security. In this paper, we have identified rice and maize crop responses to temperature in different, but consistent, phenological phases and development stages. A literature review and data compilation of around 140 scientific articles have determined the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice and maize, complementing an earlier study on wheat. Lethal temperatures and cardinal temperatures, together with error estimates, have been identified for phenological phases and development stages. Following the methodology of previous work, we have collected and statistically analysed temperature thresholds of the three crops for the key physiological processes such as leaf initiation, shoot growth and root growth and for the most susceptible phenological phases such as sowing to emergence, anthesis and grain filling. Our summary shows that cardinal temperatures are conservative between studies and are seemingly well-defined in all three crops. Anthesis and ripening are the most sensitive temperature stages in rice as well as in wheat and maize. We call for further experimental studies of the effects of transgressing threshold temperatures so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Since 1990, the IPCC has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs) including agriculture. Using a database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs, our conclusions are that crop yields decline but with large statistical variation. Livestock effects have almost been quantitatively absent. Mitigation assessments need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security; agriculture has been dealt with inconsistently between the IPCC five ARs. IPCC needs to examine interactions between crop resource use efficiencies and include production and nonproduction aspects of food security. Abstract Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom‐up and top‐down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: The projected impact of 1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impacts of warming of 〈2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. Abstract Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming 〉2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming 〈2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-08-09
    Description: How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modelling of endotherm distributions remains limited in the current literature. Using the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface-activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface-activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5°C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate-change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate-adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2015-10-10
    Description: Agriculture satisfies the basic need of society to produce food but must do so without undermining the world's capacity to sustain future food production and ecosystem services (Foley et al ., 2011; Rockström et al ., 2009; Foley et al ., 2005). Operating on a planet with finite resources and boundaries, agriculture must operate within three limits (Beddington et al ., 2012); 1) the quantity of food supply that can be produced under a given climate, 2) the quantity of food demanded by a growing and economically changing population, and 3) the impact of food production on the environment. Currently, agriculture and land-use change (LUC) are responsible for ~1/4 of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities (Smith et al ., 2014). As the human population grows, and is projected to move toward a more animal-based diet, it is projected that crop- and livestock production need to increase by 48% and 80% by 2050, respectively (FAO, 2006). It has been suggested that this could elevate agricultural non-CO 2 emissions 76% by 2050 relative to 1995 (Popp et al ., 2010). Yet agriculture has large potentials for mitigating climate change, even at relatively low cost (Smith et al ., 2014; Smith et al ., 2008; Nabuurs et al ., 2007; Schneider & Smith, 2009). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2015-02-03
    Description: Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate, and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-85 and 2000-05. We applied Bayesian spatially-varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms; suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change, whereas those changes are likely to be greater in contiguous and unfragmented habitats. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2012-07-17
    Description: The capacity of forests to mitigate global climate change can be negatively influenced by tropospheric ozone that impairs both photosynthesis and stomatal control of plant transpiration, thus affecting ecosystem productivity and watershed hydrology. We have evaluated individual and interactive effects of ozone and climate on late season streamflow for six forested watersheds (38-970,000 ha) located in the southeastern United States. Models were based on 18-26 year data records for each watershed and involved multivariate analysis of interannual variability of late season streamflow in response to physical and chemical climate during the growing season. In all cases, some combination of ozone variables significantly improved model performance over climate-only models. Effects of ozone and ozone×climate interactions were also consistently negative and were proportional to variations in actual ozone exposures, both spatially across the region and over time. Conservative estimates of the influence of ozone on the variability (R 2 ) of observed flow ranged from 7% in the area of lowest ozone exposure in West Virginia to 23% in the areas of highest exposure in Tennessee. Our results are supported by a controlled field study using free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) methodology which indicated progressive ozone-induced loss of stomatal control over tree transpiration during the summer in mixed aspen-birch stands. Despite the frequent assumption that ozone reduces tree water loss, our findings support increasing evidence that ozone at near ambient concentrations can reduce stomatal control of leaf transpiration, and increase water use. Increases in evapotranspiration and associated streamflow reductions in response to ambient ozone exposures are expected to episodically increase the frequency and severity of drought and affect flow-dependent aquatic biota in forested watersheds. Regional and global models of hydrologic cycles and related ecosystem functions should consider potential interactions of ozone with climate under both current and future warmer and ozone enriched climatic conditions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2011-07-26
    Description: We present a new 23-site network of white spruce ring-width chronologies near boreal treeline in Old Crow Flats, Yukon Territory, Canada. Most chronologies span the last 300 years, and some reach the mid-16 th century. The chronologies exhibit coherent growth patterns before the 1930s. However, since the 1930s they diverge in trend and exhibit one of two contrasting, but well-replicated patterns we call Group 1 and Group 2. Over the instrumental period (1930-2007) Group 1 sites were inversely correlated with previous-year July temperatures while Group 2 sites were positively correlated with growth-year June temperatures. At the broader northwestern North America (NWNA) scale, we find that the Group 1 and Group 2 patterns are common to a number of white spruce chronologies, which we call NWNA 1 and NWNA 2 chronologies. The NWNA 1 and NWNA 2 chronologies also share a single coherent growth pattern prior to their divergence (~1950s). Comparison of the NWNA 1/NWNA 2 chronologies against gridded 20 th -century temperatures for NWNA and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures (A.D. 1300-2000) indicates that all sites responded positively to temperature prior to the mid-20 th century (at least back to A.D. 1300), but that some changed to a negative response (NWNA 1) while others maintained a positive response (NWNA 2). The spatial extent of divergence implies a large-scale forcing. As the divergence appears to be restricted to the 20 th century, we suggest the temperature response shift represents a moisture stress caused by an anomalously warm, dry 20 th -century climate in NWNA, as indicated by paleoclimatic records. However, because some sites do not diverge, and are located within a few kilometres of divergent sites, we speculate that site-level factors have been important in determining the susceptibility of sites to the large-scale drivers of divergence.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Since 1990, the IPCC has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs) including agriculture. Using a database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs, our conclusions are that crop yields decline but with large statistical variation. Livestock effects have almost been quantitatively absent. Mitigation assessments need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security; agriculture has been dealt with inconsistently between the IPCC five ARs. IPCC needs to examine interactions between crop resource use efficiencies and include production and nonproduction aspects of food security. Abstract Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom‐up and top‐down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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