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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: Naturgefahren werden in erster Linie als Risiken gesehen, die vom Menschen nicht verursacht oder beeinflusst werden können. Diese Einschätzung trifft aber nicht durchgängig zu. So spielen bei Überschwemmungen, Dürren und den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels menschliche Aktivitäten oft eine entscheidende Rolle. Das betrifft zum Beispiel die Einflüsse hydrogeologischer Veränderungen durch Flussregulierungen und Eindeichungen oder Veränderungen durch intensive Landnutzungsmaßnahmen wie Waldrodungen oder Überweidungen.
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: The Izmit earthquake of August 1999 with a magnitude 7.4 is the latest of an earthquake sequence that started in 1939 in Eastern Turkey. This sequence brought the plate boundary between the Anatolian plate and the Eurasian plate successively from East to West to fail. Thus, the next event in this series is expected to take place West of Izmit, i.e. South of Istanbul under the Marmara Sea. This segment is a so-called seismic gap – the stresses resulting from the plate motion have not been released since the last major earthquake in 1766. One important parameter for earthquake hazard assessment is the slip rate along plate boundaries. However, the precise estimation of these fault slip rates is difficult to determine in this area for two reasons. The plate boundary under the Marmara Sea is split into several splays with complex geometries. Furthermore, the main part of this fault system is below the Marmara Sea and classical observation methods cannot be applied. In order to estimate the fault slip rates a computer simulation is necessary. The simulation results show that the slip rate along the main fault is 10 to 45 % smaller than previously assumed and that it varies along the main fault by 40 %. The latter indicates that the accumulated stresses at this fault will potentially not be released with one strong earthquake, but in several events with smaller magnitude. However, it is important to emphasise that Istanbul, situated at a short distance to the main fault (15 km), still faces a very high seismic hazard.
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: Earthquake hazard assessment with respect to megacities is one of the key challenges in Geosciences. Istanbul is one of these cities due to its location about 15 km north of a major tectonic plate boundary that separates the Eurasian plate from the Anatolian plate. Whereas the possible magnitude range and location of expected earthquakes can be determined with computer simulations, the precise timing in advance is not possible. Nevertheless, computer simulations of earthquake scenarios are an important tool that represents the deterministic seismic hazard assessment. Currently our research focuses on the quantification of model parameter uncertainties by means of assessing the results of earthquake-scenario simulation with statistical methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. The on-going rapid increase in computing power will, in the future, enable us to simulate multiple ensembles of earthquake scenarios as done in meteorological weather forecasts in order to assess which of the simulated scenarios is the most probable to occur. The key mathematical tools in this type of modelling are numerical methods that solve the partial differential equations that describe the equilibrium of forces for the earthquake nucleation and time-dependent statistical methods that quantify the uncertainties of the models. For Istanbul this research is essential since the tectonic fault has not ruptured since 1766. The fault is mature and has the potential to produce an earthquake of Mw 〉 7.
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) represent one of the most practice-oriented products seismology can offer to society. As seismic load information, results of PSHA build the basis for earthquake-resistant building codes and safety proofs. They form the decisive input for seismic risk assessments and are, with this, of importance for the insurance industry. Thereby, PSHAs contribute directly to the reduction of earthquake risk, since the earthquake-resistant design of buildings represents the only sustainable protection against this kind of natural hazards. This contribution provides in a compressed form a view into the methodical basis of PSHA. In the focus are here mathematical models, which enable the generation of PSHA with quantified uncertainties on the basis of geophysical and geological data. Typical results of a PSHA are presented in form of seismic hazard curves, seismic hazard maps and response spectra for the national code DIN19700 for safety proofs of hydraulic constructions like, e.g., dams of water reservoirs (Grünthal, 2008; Grünthal et al., 2009b).
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: In diesem Bericht werden die Ergebnisse der neuen Generation probabilistischer seismischer Gefährdungseinschätzungen (PSHA) in der Version von 2007 vorgestellt. Die Parametrisierung der Berechnungsergebnisse erfolgt in Form spektraler Antwort- Beschleunigungen und der Spitzenbodenbeschleunigungen (PGA). Bezüglich ersterer stellen sie eine Neuheit für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland dar, während letztere die PGA-Karten von 1997 ersetzen.
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Keywords: 550 - Earth sciences
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This study is based on a comprehensive involvement of accessible uncertainties in models and parameters. It includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive way and incorporates significant improvements. It is based on updated and extended databases, robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties and a selection of latest : ground shaking prediction models. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs: Seismic load parameters are calculated for rock conditions, mean return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years and delivered as uniform hazard spectra, seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and macroseismic intensities as mean, median and 84 % quantile. Examples of some elements of the input and a few basis results are shown.
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: Seismic hazard assessments can only be as good as the historical past is known. Therefore, reliable seismicity records have to be extended back into history as far as possible. Hence, historical seismological investigation is of utmost importance in order to achieve long-term earthquake catalogue data of high quality. This basic research has been performed at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences as a multidisciplinary approach of seismologists and historians for many years. Seismic activity before the installation of the first seismographs in the beginning of the 20th century can only be reconstructed based on written sources For Central Europe, these documents date back up to the middle of the 8th century. The historical information for each earthquake has to be source-critically analyzed and transferred into parameterized information, which is then catalogued. During the long tradition of collecting past seismic information starting more than a century ago, many mistakes were made, like duplications of events, misinterpreted strength, location and wrong dating of earthquakes, which could be identified by our investigation. We show exemplarily how these uncertainties can be mitigated. Historical passing on of information is transferred to modern seismicity parameters by applying historic-critical methods. Thus, we are able to acquire better and more reliable long-term data for historical earthquake catalogues and for trustworthy long-term seismic hazard assessments.
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-01-10
    Description: Die Karte der spektralen elastischen Antwortbodenbeschleunigungen zum Entwurf des neuen Nationalen Anhangs zum EC 8 (E DIN EN 1998-1/NA:2018-10) hat in Anwenderkreisen einige Diskussionen ausgelöst. Diese bezogen sich insbesondere auf den Vergleich zur Erdbebenzonenkarte des bisherigen Nationalen Anhangs (DIN EN 1998‑1/NA:2011-01). Grundsätzlich ist zu betonen, dass ein direkter Zusammenhang zwischen den beiden Karten nicht hergestellt werden kann, da diese auf sehr unterschiedlichen Parametrisierungen basieren. Um für weitere Diskussionen eine sachliche Grundlage zu schaffen, werden in diesem Beitrag die grundlegenden Charakteristika beider Berechnungsmodelle, d. h. zu den Erdbebenkarten des bisherigen und des neuen NA, gegenübergestellt. Des Weiteren werden vier Varianten vorgestellt, wie zumindest auf indirektem Wege die beiden unterschiedlichen Kartentypen in Beziehung gesetzt werden können. Im Ergebnis zeigen die Varianten, dass sie einem gemeinsamen Trend folgen.
    Language: German
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2024-04-24
    Description: Die DIN 19700:2004-07 "Stauanlagen fordert für Hochwasserrückhaltebecken und Talsperren die Prüfung der Einwirkung von Erdbeben. Ausgehend von der Erdbebengefahr am Standort müssen Nachweise hinsichtlich der Zuverlässigkeit der Stauanlage im Erdbebenfall geführt werden. Für die Betreiber und die Wasserbehörden gibt das vorliegende Kompendium einen zusammenfassenden Überblick über die Grundlagen der Erdbebennachweisführung entsprechend den DIN-Vorgaben. Die Anforderungen an die Nachweisführung sowie eine Leistungsbeschreibung für die zu beauftragenden Fachbüros werden gegeben. Ferner werden Hinweise zum Betrieb der Stauanlage erläutert. Es wird dargestellt, wie die Stauanlagen in Hinsicht auf eine Erdbebeneinwirkung zu überwachen sind.
    Language: German
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book
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