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  • English  (9)
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  • English  (9)
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  • 1
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    Series available for loan
    Geologic and seismologic aspects of the Managua, Nicaragua, earthquakes of December 23, 1972 (1973)
    Washington, DC : United States Gov. Print. Off.
    Associated volumes
    Details Availability
    Call number: SR 90.0002(838)
    In: Professional paper
    Type of Medium: Series available for loan
    Pages: VI, 34 S. + 1 pl.
    Series Statement: U.S. Geological Survey professional paper 838
    Language: English
    Location: Lower compact magazine
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 2
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    Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High‐Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models (2023)
    In:  Earth's Future
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-20
    Description: In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high-resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi-enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble-median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
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    Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi‐Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview (2024)
    In:  Earth's Future
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-29
    Description: Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, can trigger a complex web of compound and cascading impacts (CCI) due to interdependencies between coupled natural and social systems. However, current decision-making processes typically only consider one impact and disaster event at a time, ignoring causal chains, feedback loops, and conditional dependencies between impacts. Analyses capturing these complex patterns across space and time are thus needed to inform effective adaptation planning. This perspective paper aims to bridge this critical gap by presenting methods for assessing the dynamics of the multi-sector CCI of hydrological extremes. We discuss existing challenges, good practices, and potential ways forward. Rather than pursuing a single methodological approach, we advocate for methodological pluralism. We see complementary or even convergent roles for analyses based on quantitative (e.g., data-mining, systems modeling) and qualitative methods (e.g., mental models, qualitative storylines). The data-driven and knowledge-driven methods provided here can serve as a useful starting point for understanding the dynamics of both high-frequency CCI and low-likelihood but high-impact CCI. With this perspective, we hope to foster research on CCI to improve the development of adaptation strategies for reducing the risk of hydrological extremes.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
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    Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts (2022)
    GFZ Data Services
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-18
    Description: As the negative impacts of hydrological extremes increase in large parts of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of change in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. To fill this gap, we present an IAHS Panta Rhei benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area (Kreibich et al. 2017, 2019). The contained 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas (in three study areas we have data on two paired events), which cover different socioeconomic and hydroclimatic contexts across all continents. The dataset is unique in covering floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the amount of qualitative and quantitative socio-hydrological data contained. References to the data sources are provided in 2022-002_Kreibich-et-al_Key_data_table.xlsx where possible. Based on templates, we collected detailed, review-style reports describing the event characteristics and processes in the case study areas, as well as various semi-quantitative data, categorised into management, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts. Sources of the data were classified as follows: scientific study (peer-reviewed paper and PhD thesis), report (by governments, administrations, NGOs, research organisations, projects), own analysis by authors, based on a database (e.g. official statistics, monitoring data such as weather, discharge data, etc.), newspaper article, and expert judgement. The campaign to collect the information and data on paired events started at the EGU General Assembly in April 2019 in Vienna and was continued with talks promoting the paired event data collection at various conferences. Communication with the Panta Rhei community and other flood and drought experts identified through snowballing techniques was important. Thus, data on paired events were provided by professionals with excellent local knowledge of the events and risk management practices.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 5
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    Assessment of non-stationary spatial footprints of skew surges (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-05
    Description: Single extreme events can affect multiple countries/ states simultaneously, which weakens the capacity of the emergency response systems. Although understanding the spatial dependencies of extremes is crucial for accurate risk analysis, little is known about how these dependencies change over time. This study quantifies the seasonal and decadal variations of the spatial dependencies of extreme skew surges along the coasts of Europe, North America, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea. We use water level information from tide gauge measurements and a 39-year reanalysis dataset. We find that the spatial footprints of the extreme skew surges vary in size and location at decadal time scales in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. For example, we detect a high correlation of extreme storm surges along the west coast of Florida at the beginning of the century. The dependencies weaken toward the end of the century and the spatial footprint shifts northward, toward the Mississippi coast.Seasonal changes are observed in Europe, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea. We investigate the weather patterns (sea level pressure and 10-m wind speed) that drive the seasonal changes in the spatial correlations of skew surges. The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) is used to exclude tropical cyclone events from the weather patterns, which are analyzed separately. Four representative weather patterns are identified that characterize the seasonal variability of the spatial footprints in the three regions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 6
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    The role of spatial dependence in global-scale coastal flood risk assessment (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-08
    Description: Coastal flooding is among the world’s deadliest and costliest natural hazards. Its impacts can be particularly high when an event affects a large spatial area. Current large-scale flood risk studies assume that the probabilities of water levels during such events do not vary in space. This failure to capture flood spatial dependence can lead to large misestimates of the hazard and associated risk, and therefore potentially misinform the risk management community. In this contribution, we assess the effects of spatial dependence on coastal flood risk estimation at the global scale. To this end, we compare the assessments using two spatial dependence scenarios: 1) complete dependence and 2) modelled dependence of water level return periods. For the first scenario, we use the existing risk information calculated by the GLOFRIS global risk modelling framework. To estimate the spatially-dependent risks, we use an event-based approach and consider 10,000-year extreme coastal flood events from the global synthetic dataset of spatially-dependent extreme sea levels. These spatially-coherent return periods are then combined with the GLOFRIS spatially-constant inundation layers to create the spatially-dependent inundation map. These maps are further overlaid with exposure layers and vulnerability information to assess the coastal flood impacts. The flood risk is estimated empirically and presented in terms of expected annual population and expected annual damage. This study will provide improved risk estimation at the global scale, which could be used to enhance flood risk management through better wide-area planning decisions, more accurate insurance coverage, and better emergency response.
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts (version 2) (2023)
    GFZ Data Services
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-12
    Description: As the negative impacts of hydrological extremes increase in large parts of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of change in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. To fill this gap, we present an IAHS Panta Rhei benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area (Kreibich et al. 2017, 2019). The contained 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas (in three study areas we have data on two paired events), which cover different socioeconomic and hydroclimatic contexts across all continents. The dataset is unique in covering floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the amount of qualitative and quantitative socio-hydrological data contained. References to the data sources are provided in 2023-001_Kreibich-et-al_Key_data_table.xlsx where possible. Based on templates, we collected detailed, review-style reports describing the event characteristics and processes in the case study areas, as well as various semi-quantitative data, categorised into management, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts. Sources of the data were classified as follows: scientific study (peer-reviewed paper and PhD thesis), report (by governments, administrations, NGOs, research organisations, projects), own analysis by authors, based on a database (e.g. official statistics, monitoring data such as weather, discharge data, etc.), newspaper article, and expert judgement. The campaign to collect the information and data on paired events started at the EGU General Assembly in April 2019 in Vienna and was continued with talks promoting the paired event data collection at various conferences. Communication with the Panta Rhei community and other flood and drought experts identified through snowballing techniques was important. Thus, data on paired events were provided by professionals with excellent local knowledge of the events and risk management practices.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 8
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    New, open socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-04
    Description: A better understanding of the drivers of increasing impact trends is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. However, empirical data is lacking about the processes that result in flood and drought impacts. We present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, which is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed, and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments. A first analysis of the dataset revealed the general pattern that risk management normally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts, but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not experienced before (Kreibich et al. 2022a). The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses and for the development of socio-hydrological models. As such, the dataset can support solving one of the twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (Blöschl et al. 2019). The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al. 2022b). References Blöschl, G. et al. (2019): Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64, 10, 1141-1158, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1620507 Kreibich, H. et al. (2022a): The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management. Nature, 608, 80-86, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5 Kreibich, H. et al. (2022b): Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2022.002
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments (2023)
    In:  Nature Geoscience
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-13
    Description: Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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