ALBERT

Description: We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (〉 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario.

Description: The sea-level load in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is described by the so called sea-level equation (SLE), which represents the mass redistribution between ice sheets and oceans on a deforming earth. Various levels of complexity of SLE have been proposed in the past, ranging from a simple mean global sea level (the so-called eu- static sea level) to the load with a deforming ocean bottom, migrating coastlines and a changing shape of the geoid. Several approaches to solve the SLE have been derived, from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Despite various teams independently investigating GIA, there has been no systematic intercomparison amongst the solvers through which the methods may be validated. The goal of this paper is to present a series of benchmark experiments designed for testing and comparing numerical implementations of the SLE. Our approach starts with simple load cases even though the benchmark will not result in GIA predictions for a realistic loading scenario. In the longer term we aim for a benchmark with a realistic loading scenario, and also for benchmark solutions with rotational feedback. The current benchmark uses an earth model for which Love numbers have been computed and benchmarked in Spada et al (2011). In spite of the significant differences in the numerical methods employed, the test computations performed so far show a satisfactory agreement between the results provided by the participants. The differences found can often be attributed to the different approximations inherent to the various algorithms.

Description: Recent measurements of surface vertical displacements of the European Alps show a correlation between vertical velocities and topographic features, with widespread uplift at rates of up to ~2–2.5 mm/a in the North-Western and Central Alps, and ~1 mm/a across a continuous region from the Eastern to the South-Western Alps. Such a rock uplift rate pattern is at odds with the horizontal velocity field, characterized by shortening and crustal thickening in the Eastern Alps and very limited deformation in the Central and Western Alps. Proposed mechanisms of rock uplift rate include isostatic response to the last deglaciation, long-term erosion, detachment of the Western Alpine slab, as well as lithospheric and surface deflection due to mantle convection. Here, we assess previous work and present new estimates of the contributions from these mechanisms. Given the large range of model estimates, the isostatic adjustment to deglaciation and erosion are sufficient to explain the full observed rate of uplift in the Eastern Alps, which, if correct, would preclude a contribution from horizontal shortening and crustal thickening. Alternatively, uplift is a partitioned response to a range of mechanisms. In the Central and Western Alps, the lithospheric adjustment to deglaciation and erosion likely accounts for roughly half of the rock uplift rate, which points to a noticeable contribution by mantle-related processes such as detachment of the European slab and/or asthenospheric upwelling. While it is difficult to independently constrain the patterns and magnitude of mantle contributions to ongoing Alpine vertical displacements at present, future data should provide additional insights. Regardless, interacting tectonic and surface mass redistribution processes, rather than an individual forcing, best explain ongoing Alpine elevation changes.

Description: Space geodetic studies of both present-day surface mass trend (PDMT) and GIA are significantly hindered by the duality of signatures in various data. Current GIA models are largely built on global forward modeling approaches conducted in the 1990s with subsequent piecemeal improvements often without knowing PDMT. With a general lack of uncertainty assessments, they are not accurate enough to match modern space geodesy precisions, and contain possible ambiguities and large errors. We carry out a joint dynamic inversion of multiple data sets of different space geodetic techniques and historical relative sea level records to solve for PDMT, ice history and Earth rheology simultaneously. The dynamic GIA forward modeling is based on gravitationally and topographically self-consistent sea-level equation solver SELEN 4.0. The deglaciation process features 759 global equal-area, icosahedron-shaped, spherical ice pixels with an approximate radius of 1.34 degrees, 13 2-kyr Heaviside steps, and a 4-layer Earth model. Loose a priori PDMT and GIA models are used based on our earlier kinematic inversions and ICE-6G/VM5A respectively. An innovative finite difference method is developed to overcome the enormous computational cost of evaluating partial derivatives with respect to ice thickness and Earth rheology parameters in the context of solving integral equations. Our results confirm many PDMT and GIA signatures estimated in previous kinematic inversions. But two disjoint minimums of equal size with distinct lower mantle viscosities are seen to both satisfy the data combination. Significant coherent ice history deviations from ICE-6G are also found.