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  • English  (3)
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  • English  (3)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-06-16
    Description: In any probabilistic seismic-hazard model, the earthquake activity that cannot be associated with well-characterized fault structures is taken into account as seismicity distributed over a geographical region. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are generally based on predictor variables describing the spatial extension of a rupture. The approach taken to model rupture finiteness can therefore bias the estimation of seismic hazard. We study the effect of rupture finiteness in modeling distributed seismicity using the OpenQuake (OQ) engine, the open-source software for seismic hazard and risk assessment promoted by the Global Earthquake Model initiative. For a simple test case we show how the inclusion of rupture finiteness, with respect to the point-rupture approximation, leads to a significant increase in the probabilities of exceedance for a given level of motion. We then compare the OQ engine with the calculation software developed by the U.S. Geological Survey-National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project. By considering a gridded seismicity model for California, we show how different approaches for modeling finite ruptures affect seismic-hazard estimates. We show how sensitivity to rupture finiteness depends not only on the spatial distribution of activity rates but also on the GMPE model. Considering two sites in Los Angeles and San Francisco, we show that for a return period of 475 years, the percent difference in the associated ground-motion levels when using point and finite ruptures ranges from 19% to 46%; for a return period of 2475 years the difference ranges from 29% to 58%.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-06-16
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-03-01
    Description: In December 2018, at the conclusion of its second implementation phase, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation released its first version of a map outlining the spatial distribution of seismic hazard at a global scale. The map is the result of an extensive, joint effort combining the results obtained from a collection of probabilistic seismic hazard models, called the GEM Mosaic. Together, the map and the underlying database of models provide an up-to-date view of the earthquake threat globally. In addition, using the Mosaic, a synopsis of the current state-of-practice in modeling probabilistic seismic hazard at national and regional scales is possible. The process adopted for the compilation of the Mosaic adhered to the maximum extent possible to GEM’s principles of collaboration, inclusiveness, transparency, and reproducibility. For each region, priority was given to seismic hazard models either developed by well-recognized national agencies or by large collaborative projects involving local scientists. The version of the GEM Mosaic presented herein contains 30 probabilistic seismic hazard models, 14 of which represent national or sub-national models; the remainder are regional-scale models. We discuss the general qualities of these models, the underlying framework of the database, and the outlook for the Mosaic’s utility and its future versions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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