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  • English  (8)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-06-08
    Description: Lakes cover large parts of the climatically sensitive Arctic landscape and respond rapidly to environmental change. Arctic lakes have different origins and include the predominant thermokarst lakes, which are small, young and highly dynamic, as well as large, old and stable glacial lakes. Freshwater diatoms dominate the primary producer community in these lakes and can be used to detect biotic responses to climate and environmental change. We used specific diatom metabarcoding on sedimentary DNA, combined with next-generation sequencing and diatom morphology, to assess diatom diversity in five glacial and 15 thermokarst lakes within the easternmost expanse of the Siberian treeline ecotone in Chukotka, Russia. We obtained 163 verified diatom sequence types and identified 176 diatom species morphologically. Although there were large differences in taxonomic assignment using the two approaches, they showed similar high abundances and diversity of Fragilariceae and Aulacoseiraceae. In particular, the genetic approach detected hidden within-lake variations of fragilarioids in glacial lakes and dominance of centric Aulacoseira species, whereas Lindavia ocellata was predominant using morphology. In thermokarst lakes, sequence types and valve counts also detected high diversity of Fragilariaceae, which followed the vegetation gradient along the treeline. Ordination analyses of the genetic data from glacial and thermokarst lakes suggest that concentrations of sulfate (SO42−), an indicator of the activity of sulfate-reducing microbes under anoxic conditions, and bicarbonate (HCO3−), which relates to surrounding vegetation, have a significant influence on diatom community composition. For thermokarst lakes, we also identified lake depth as an important variable, but SO42− best explains diatom diversity derived from genetic data, whereas HCO3− best explains the data from valve counts. Higher diatom diversity was detected in glacial lakes, most likely related to greater lake age and different edaphic settings, which gave rise to diversification and endemism. In contrast, small, dynamic thermokarst lakes are inhabited by stress-tolerant fragilarioids and are related to different vegetation types along the treeline ecotone. Our study demonstrated that genetic investigations of lake sediments can be used to interpret climate and environmental responses of diatoms. It also showed how lake type affects diatom diversity, and that such genetic analyses can be used to track diatom community changes under ongoing warming in the Arctic.
    Keywords: ddc:561 ; Diatoms ; Diversity ; Glacial lakes ; Sedimentary DNA ; Siberian arctic ; Thermokarst
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-02-14
    Description: Glacierised river catchments are highly sensitive to climate change, while large populations may depend on their water resources. The irrigation agriculture and the communities along the Tarim River, NW China, strongly depend on the discharge from the glacierised catchments surrounding the Taklamakan Desert. While recent increasing discharge has been beneficial for the agricultural sector, future runoff under climate change is uncertain. We assess three climate change scenarios by forcing two glacio-hydrological models with output of eight general circulation models. The models have different glaciological modelling approaches but were both calibrated to discharge and glacier mass balance observations. Projected changes in climate, glacier cover and river discharge are examined over the twenty-first century and generally point to warmer and wetter conditions. The model ensemble projects median temperature and precipitation increases of + 1.9–5.3 °C and + 9–24%, respectively, until the end of the century compared to the 1971–2000 reference period. Glacier area is projected to shrink by 15–73% (model medians, range over scenarios), depending on the catchment. River discharge is projected to first increase by about 20% in the Aksu River catchments with subsequent decreases of up to 20%. In contrast, discharge in the drier Hotan and Yarkant catchments is projected to increase by 15–60% towards the end of the century. The large uncertainties mainly relate to the climate model ensemble and the limited observations to constrain the glacio-hydrological models. Sustainable water resource management will be key to avert the risks associated with the projected changes and their uncertainties.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-07-25
    Description: The effect of tropical precipitation on the inverse change in the entrance and exit of the tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is studied. The TEJ's entrance and exit are over the northwest Pacific Ocean and equatorial Africa, inversely varying from July to September. When the entrance of the TEJ is weaker-than-normal, the exit is stronger-than-normal, and vice versa. Observed data show that a west-east dipole precipitation pattern located in the Maritime Continent (MC) and tropical Pacific (TP) has a distinct influence on such inverse variation of the TEJ. A series of numerical experiments are carried out based on the linear baroclinic model, qualitatively exploring the independent effects of MC and TP precipitation anomalies. The results show that the heat source over the MC can induce a Kelvin wave propagating eastward in the upper troposphere, resulting in the weakening of the TEJ entrance. The heat sink over the TP generates a Rossby wave response, forming a pair of cyclones in the troposphere over the equatorial western Pacific, and the westerly anomaly in the middle weakens the TEJ's entrance; meanwhile, a Kelvin wave propagating eastward in the upper troposphere between 120°W and 70°E, which is caused by the heat sink over the TP strengthens the exit of the TEJ. There is a reverse phase change in the inlet and exit regions of the jet stream as a result. It’s shows that the west-east dipole precipitation pattern in the MC and TP may be related to La Niña-like SST anomalies in synchronous summer.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-05-22
    Description: The present study investigates the characteristics and possible origins of the synoptic and intraseasonal variability of the extreme heavy rainfall (EHR) event in Henan Province, China in July 2021. Two dominant modes with periods about 8 days and 10–40 days feature the Henan EHR event and explain more than 80% of total rainfall. The synoptic variability of the Henan EHR event can be attributed to the northwestward-propagating synoptic-scale wave train modulated by the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific. A northernmost-displacement monsoon trough in July 2021 (~23.2°N) would facilitate the synoptic-scale wave train to propagate farther northwestward, which reaches to the subtropical region and thus influences the Henan EHR event. The intraseasonal variability of the Henan EHR event is tightly related to the meridional dipole pattern with an anticyclonic circulation over North China and Sea of Japan and a cyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. Both tropical and extratropical signals are responsible for the intraseasonal variability of the Henan rainfall, including the northward-propagating Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation, mid-latitude wave train over the Eurasian continent and air-sea interaction over the Kuroshio Extension region. The synoptic and intraseasonal atmospheric circulations favor abundant moisture transporting to Henan and strong ascending flow, jointly leading to the rainfall extreme therein. The results implicate that these tropical and extratropical forcings may be the potential precursors for heavy rainfalls in Henan Province or even the northern Central China.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 5
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    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Publication Date: 2023-05-22
    Description: Saltwater intrusion forecasting for estuaries are challenging due to a wide range of dynamic interactions and the limited amount of available data. This study proposes a tailor-made method for input determination for ensemble forecasts of estuarine saltwater intrusion. The proposed method is based on determining the initial set of candidates by the combined use of Pearson’s Coefficient (r) and Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC); and afterwards reducing the dimension of the input data sets by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The current study uses Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method to combine the forecasting results of Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Elman Neural Network (ENN) models to create an integrated forecast. The proposed modeling approach was tested and compared with seven alternative procedures to forecast the saltwater intrusion at the Pearl River Delta (PRD). The results indicated that: (a) the dynamics of saltwater intrusion are more sensitive to the long-term solar activities than the local wind force; (b) the valuable non-linear signals hidden in the related time series could be identified by the combined use of r and MIC; (c) dynamic statistics related to low runoff, high antecedent chlorinity, strong tidal force, and strong wind force are preferable over the average values as model inputs; and (d) the pro-posed method achieved highest forecast accuracy with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) of 0.78. This study provides insights to the input determination for data-driven models of complex estuarine saltwater intrusion.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 6
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    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Publication Date: 2023-05-15
    Description: River algal blooms are a global environmental problem that is characterized by complex causes, large impact range and long duration. This problem would be further complicated by the operation of large-scale water transfer projects. Here, we combine the Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) and machine learning to reveal the causes and predict the occurrence of algal blooms during a 15-year period in the Han River, the largest tributary of the Yangtze River of China and the freshwater source of the central route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), a mega infrastructure of China. We show that the random forest, a machine learning model, outperformed the gradient boosting machine model in predicting algal blooms with a 10-day lead time with the application of resampling methods to tackle imbalanced data (i.e., the algal blooms events are relatively rare compared to the non-blooms). We combine CCM causality analysis and machine learning to elucidate that the water temperature in the Han River (HR) and the water levels in HR and the Yangtze River as the dominant factors affecting algal blooms in HR with consistently high nutrient concentrations. Finally, we suggest that the operation of SNWDP weakens the response of algal blooms to the water level variation in HR, which is one of the key driving factors affecting algal blooms before the operation of SNWDP. This study provides important reference for detecting the causes of river algal blooms and exploring the impact of large-scale water transfer projects on riverine environment.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 7
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    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Publication Date: 2023-04-25
    Description: In order to determine the collapse mechanism of seismic landslide surge induced bridge structure, this paper takes reinforced concrete bridge as the research object, an analytical calculation model of surge wave considering the impact characteristics of sliding body on fluid was established; on this basis, the influence law of sliding body velocity of entry into the water on surge propagation is analyzed, the wave pressure distribution law of landslide surge along RC bridge structure is studied, the plastic hinge development sequence of RC bridge structure under landslide surge is determined, and the influence mechanism of earthquake landslide surge on the anti-collapse performance of bridge structure is revealed. The findings show that considering the impact force of sliding body on water, the velocity of entry into the water has great influence on the wave height and the height climbing on RC bridge structure, but has no obvious influence on the shape of the surge wave; the influence of surge on RC bridge structure is related to the initial wave height, and the influence degree of surge on bridge structure increases with the increase of the first wave height; the vertical wave force caused by landslide surge could not be ignored, which will lead to the change of the emergence time of different plastic hinges in RC bridge structure, and in the anti-collapse analysis of RC bridge structure, the formation of all plastic hinges of RC bridge cannot only be taken as the discriminant index, but the ultimate curvature of each plastic hinge should be combined to judge.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 8
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    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Publication Date: 2023-09-12
    Description: The accurate determination of the phase center corrections (PCCs) of BeiDou satellite antennas is of utmost importance in producing high-precision orbit and clock products as well as in determining terrestrial scale. In this study, the authors present the estimation results of both phase variations (PVs) and phase center offsets (PCOs) for 37 BeiDou Inclined Geosynchronous Satellite Orbit (IGSO) and Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) satellites, in various reference frames. The results show good consistency in the nadir-angle-dependent PVs among the same block-type, with block-mean values being used as the final estimates. In IGb14, the final Z-PCO estimates for IGSO and BDS-2 MEO satellites showed significant deviations from the metadata values published by China Satellite Navigation Office, while those for BDS-3 MEO satellites showed smaller mean offsets. The utilization of the estimated PCCs instead of the metadata values resulted in a 5-32% improvement in the precise orbit determination accuracy and a 2-18% improvement in the precise clock estimation accuracy. Moreover, the estimated PCCs reduced the terrestrial scale discrepancy between the BeiDou solutions and IGb14 frame to -0.02 and -0.03 ppb, for the BDS-2+BDS-3 and BDS-3 only scenarios, respectively. The authors also provide satellite Z-PCOs aligned to IGS20 and IGSR3 frames. The IGS20 Z-PCOs of IGSO and MEO satellites were found to be smaller, on average, by 250 and 50 mm, respectively, compared to the IGb14 values, while the mean differences between IGSR3 and IGb14 values were 530 and 180 mm.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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