ALBERT

Description: The science is clear: climate change is real. In 2015, 195 countries adopted the global climate deal in Paris. Nonetheless, numerous well-organized conservative think tanks (CTTs) deny that climate change is happening. We ask what kind of counterclaims are used by climate-sceptic CTTs and to what extent these counterclaims change over time. We analyse about 2500 blog articles from prominent CTTs in the USA and Germany between 2008 and 2016. Our results show that sceptical arguments about climate policy and science dominate the countermovement. At the same time, we detect that the prevalence of counterclaims is CTT-specific and that US think tanks show a greater variability compared to their German counterparts. In a surprising outcome, we find that the Paris Agreement did not affect the climate denial movement. Based on these insights, we discuss our contributions to social movement research in the climate change denial context and derive conclusions for pro-climate campaigns.

Description: Projekt DEAL

Description: An increasing number of publications about theoretical approaches and new findings illustrate the relevance of the topic environmental risk assessment. The actual discussion about high oil prices is not incorporated under this headline; but it should be, as natural resource scarcity is a crucial economic factor. In practical experience, more and more banks, insurance companies as well as investors realize that there are certain areas with a high correlation between sustainable development and corporate success, corporate risk exposure and corporate performance. In this discussion one of the most obvious topics are risks related to climate change. According to the findings of surveys evaluated in this paper climate change starts to affect economic development and companies' performance in various ways. Over the next decade, economic losses due to climate change are estimated by US$ 150 billion per year. As result world's business leaders have described climate change as the biggest challenge of the 21st century. Hence, the incorporation of climate change as a risk factor is essential, but risks related to climate change feature a severe issue of complex structure and uncertainty; traditional risk assessment tools appear in the light of not being able to either reflect the multifaceted system nor provide sufficient outcomes. Environmental risk assessments in general so far have mainly emphasized - if at all - on actual and possible impacts of the release of materials or emissions (external effects). But an overall sustainable risk assessment has also to take into account the risks related to the inflow of materials. The main reason for neglecting the inflow risks from an environmental perspective can be seen in the fact that these risks seem to be less tangible and more uncertain. Nevertheless, in a world where economic development and the use of natural resources is not uncoupled yet, a steadily increasing economic power will result in a continually rising extraction of resources. As all resources are limited, the risk of scarcity will rise; and the example of water illustrates that it already exists. Indeed, scarcity is not tangible for all kind of resources from a present point of view. Hence, a specified analysis is needed considering different market and supply conditions. A comprehensive analysis of environmental risks needs to encompass risks affecting the output as well as the input side of a value chain. This paper enlarges the discussion on environmental risk assessments upon the input dimension using the example of carbon risks. Firstly, carbon risks are defined as risks related to climate change at the corporate level with a focus on the input as well as the output dimension. Secondly, an analysis of the current discussion on the topic of carbon risk evaluates the status quo of scientific work in this field. Thirdly, in terms of developing a practically oriented tool, the Value-at-Risk approach and it's application to measure input oriented carbon risks are scrutinized. The results discuss how future volatility and market prices can be utilized to describe the uncertainty resulting from markets acknowledging and pricing oil scarcity as a risk factor. Finally recommendations with a focus on strategic management decisions and financial performance analysis are given and further research opportunities are drawn. The conclusion is; once markets have acknowledged the depletion mid-point as a measure of oil scarcity, natural scarcity will result in a significant higher Value-at-Risk. The Value-at-Risk of one barrel of crude oil could then be as high as US$ 15.5 in the short term and even US$ 17.2 in the long term. The scope of this paper is neither intended to predict one likely development nor to demonstrate how this tool can actually work in terms of forecasting single companies' performance. But in order to point the way ahead, this paper provides scenarios for potential future developments and sets a frame for risk assessments due to oil scarcity.

Description: Corporate carbon performance (CCP) has become a central topic in political, financial, and academic domains. At the same time, several characteristics of CCP data, including comparability and consistency, remain unresolved. The literature has extensively covered issues regarding the comparability of CCP data from a firm-internal perspective. However, it has not yet examined the consistency of CCP data between third-party data providers. This article investigates the degree of CCP data consistency between third-party providers according to three dimensions: scope (i.e., direct and indirect emissions), scheme (i.e., mandatory and voluntary reporting schemes), and source (i.e., data stemming from corporate reports and from third-party estimation methods). The results reveal that data on direct emissions are more consistent than data on indirect emissions, and they are especially inconsistent for Scope 3. Second, mandatory and voluntary reporting schemes do not substantially improve the consistency of CCP data, which is surprising. Third, third-party estimations are less consistent as compared to data stemming directly from corporate reports; however, the combination of Scopes 1 and 2 third-party estimated data raises consistency levels. On the basis of these results, we conclude the following key implications: academic researchers must be mindful of the consistency of CCP data, because it can significantly affect empirical results, corporate management should avoid situations where different CCP data are communicated externally, investors should engage firms to follow a standardized approach, data providers should increase the transparency about their estimation methods, and policy makers need to be aware of the importance of a sound and standardized methodology to determine CCP.