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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-12-05
    Description: Earthquakes and slow‐slip events interact, however, detailed studies investigating their interplay are still limited. We generate the highest resolution microseismicity catalog to date for the northern Armutlu Peninsula in a ∼1‐year period to perform a detailed seismicity distribution analysis and correlate the results with a local, geodetically observed slow‐slip transient within the same period. Seismicity shows a transition of cluster‐type behavior from swarm‐like to burst‐like, accompanied by an increasing relative proportion of clustered (non‐Poissonian) relative to background (Poissonian) seismicity and gradually decreasing b‐value as the geodetically observed slow‐slip transient ends. The observed slow‐slip transient decay correlates with gradually increasing effective‐stress‐drop values. The observed correlation between the b‐value and geodetic transient highlights the influence of aseismic deformation on seismic deformation and the impact of slow‐slip transients on local seismic hazard.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Seismic and aseismic slip on faults can change the stress state in the crust and affect the recurrence time of earthquakes. Observations of how earthquakes and aseismic fault slip influence each other are limited because of the dearth of synchronous high‐resolution seismological and geodetic data. Here we use high‐resolution earthquake data in the northern Armutlu Peninsula along the Marmara seismic gap of the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) to correlate the earthquake distribution with a local slow‐slip transient that occurred in the same period. We find that the slow‐slip transient modulates the spatiotemporal and frequency‐magnitude evolution of earthquakes, which highlights the influence of slow fault creep on fast fault slip. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering slow‐slip transients for seismic hazard assessment.
    Description: Key Points: Seismicity analysis suggests that both external and internal forcing drive deformation in the Armutlu Peninsula. Temporal correlation between a slow‐slip transient and seismic b‐value highlights interactions between aseismic and seismic deformation. Slow‐slip transients modulate the frequency‐magnitude and spatiotemporal earthquake distribution.
    Description: VW momentum grant
    Description: Helmotz Association Young Investigator Group http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: Helmholtz‐Zentrum Potsdam—Deutsches GeoForschungs Zentrum GFZ, GIPP http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010956
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; microseismicity ; enhanced catalog ; near‐fault monitoring ; seismic‐aseismic deformation ; slow‐slip transient
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In the Penninic nappe stack of the Western Alps, high‐ to ultrahigh‐pressure metamorphic ophiolites of the Zermatt‐Saas Zone are associated with slivers of continental crust. In one of these slivers, Monte Emilius, the overprinting of pre‐Alpine granulite‐facies rocks by subduction‐related, Alpine eclogite‐facies metamorphism can be studied. Mafic granulites were initially transformed into blueschists. In a second step, shear zones were developed in which the blueschists recrystallized to fine‐grained, foliated glaucophane eclogites, and eclogite veins. The combination of petrographic and field observations as well as whole‐rock compositions suggests that the eclogite assemblage formed only in shear zones where Ca‐metasomatism induced a change in major element composition. These substantial differences in bulk rock composition demonstrate how spatially limited eclogitization may be controlled by chemical redistribution, the degree of fabric development, and associated metamorphic reactions along fluid pathways. Thermodynamic modelling of selected bulk rock compositions yielded only slightly different conditions of 1.8 ± 0.1 GPa/550 ± 50°C for blueschist and 1.9–2.3 GPa/550 ± 50°C for eclogite, constraining Ca‐rich fluid infiltration and transformation to a depth of ~60–70 km. Eclogitization occurred in the Early Eocene at 52.96 ± 0.91 Ma, as indicated by a well‐defined Lu–Hf garnet isochron.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:552.4 ; eclogite ; Lu–Hf garnet geochronology ; Monte Emilius ; subduction ; thermodynamic modelling ; Zermatt–Saas zone
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-11-26
    Description: We investigate induced seismicity associated with a hydraulic stimulation campaign performed in 2020 in the 5.8 km deep geothermal OTN‐2 well near Helsinki, Finland as part of the St1 Deep Heat project. A total of 2,875 m3 of fresh water was injected during 16 days at well‐head pressures 〈70 MPa and with flow rates between 400 and 1,000 L/min. The seismicity was monitored using a high‐resolution seismic network composed of 10 borehole geophones surrounding the project site and a borehole array of 10 geophones located in adjacent OTN‐3 well. A total of 6,121 induced earthquakes with local magnitudes MLHel〉−1.9 ${M}_{\mathrm{L}}^{\mathrm{H}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{l}} 〉 -1.9$ were recorded during and after the stimulation campaign. The analyzed statistical parameters include magnitude‐frequency b‐value, interevent time and interevent time ratio, as well as magnitude correlations. We find that the b‐value remained stationary for the entire injection period suggesting limited stress build‐up or limited fracture network coalescence in the reservoir. The seismicity during the stimulation neither shows signatures of magnitude correlations, nor temporal clustering or anticlustering beyond those arising from varying injection rates. The interevent time statistics are characterized by a Poissonian time‐varying distribution. The calculated parameters indicate no earthquake interaction. Focal mechanisms suggest that the injection activated a spatially distributed network of similarly oriented fractures. The seismicity displays stable behavior with no signatures pointing toward a runaway event. The cumulative seismic moment is proportional to the cumulative hydraulic energy and the maximum magnitude is controlled by injection rate. The performed study provides a base for implementation of time‐dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the project site.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: We investigate anthropogenic seismicity associated with fluid injection into the 5.8 km deep geothermal OTN‐2 well near Helsinki, Finland, as a part of St1 Deep Heat Project. A total of 2,875 m3 of fresh water was injected during 16 days at well‐head pressures 〈70 MPa and with flow rates between 400 and 1,000 L/min. The seismicity was monitored using a seismic network composed of 20 borehole geophones located in Helsinki area and in the OTN‐3 well located close by the injection site. A total of 6,121 earthquakes indicating fractures of 1–30 m size were recorded during and after stimulation campaign. Using a handful of statistical properties derived from earthquake catalog we found no indication for earthquakes being triggered by other earthquakes. Instead, the earthquake activity rates, as well as the maximum earthquake size stayed proportional to the fluid injection rate. The spatio‐temporal behavior of seismicity and its properties suggest earthquakes occurred not on a single fault, but in a distributed network of similarly oriented fractures, limiting the possibility for occurrence of violent earthquakes. The performed study provides evidence that the induced seismicity due to injection performed within St1 Deep Heat project is stable and allow to constrain seismic hazard.
    Description: Key Points: Induced seismicity associated with stimulation campaign in a 5.8 km deep geothermal OTN‐2 well passively responds to injection operations. Seismicity is a non‐stationary Poisson process with seismicity rate and maximum magnitude modulated by the hydraulic energy input rate. Seismicity clusters in space and time in response to fluid injection but no interaction between earthquakes is observed.
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.2.2022.001
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; induced seismicity ; hydraulic stimulation ; earthquake clustering ; earthquake interactions ; Poissonian distribution ; magnitude correlations ; interevent times
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-02-14
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Aseismic slip may occur during a long preparatory phase preceding earthquakes, and what controls it remains poorly understood. In this study, we explored the role of load point velocity and surface roughness on slow slip during the preparatory stage prior to stick‐slip events. To that end, we conducted displacement‐rate controlled friction experiments by imposing varying load point velocities on sawcut granite samples with different surface roughness at a confining pressure of 35 MPa. We measured the average slip along the fault with the recorded far‐field displacements and strain changes, while acoustic emission sensors and local strain gages were used to capture local slip variations. We found that the average amount of aseismic slip during the preparatory stage increases with roughness, whereas precursory slip duration decreases with increased load point velocity. These results reveal a complex slip pattern on rough faults which leads to dynamic ruptures at high load point velocities.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Earthquakes occur mostly along preexisting faults in the earth crust. These faults exhibit various geometrical complexities and are subjected to different strain rates. In the laboratory, we produce earthquake analogs by sliding sawcut granite blocks. We vary the geometrical complexity of the faults by roughening their surfaces and modify the strain rate by displacing the blocks at varying velocities. Under these different conditions, we measure how the forces accumulated by friction are released, by measuring stresses and displacements applied on the block's edges, using local strain deformation sensors, and by recording very small earthquakes occurring during sliding along the sawcut faults. We find that smooth sawcut faults tend to release all the energy accumulated very abruptly, after a very small amount of slip, regardless of the load point velocity applied. The processes leading to failure in the case of a rough fault are much more complex, involving a large amount of slip, and numerous small earthquakes which are distributed heterogeneously in space and time.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Acoustic emissions highlight the complex preparatory phase prior stick‐slips on rough faults〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Preparatory slip increases with roughness and the duration of the preparatory phase decreases with increasing load point velocity〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Rough and heterogeneous faults are more stable than smooth faults, but can become unstable with a small increase of load point velocity〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: SAIDAN
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6411819
    Keywords: ddc:550.78 ; rock friction ; roughness ; dynamic rupture ; acoustic emissions
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-12-12
    Description: Strain energy from tectonic loading can be partly released through aseismic creep. Earthquake repeaters, repeatedly activated brittle fault patches surrounded by creep, indicate steady‐state creep that affects the amount of seismic energy available for the next large earthquake along a plate contact. The offshore Main Marmara Fault (MMF) of the North Anatolian Fault Zone represents a seismic gap capable of generating a M 〉 7 earthquake in direct vicinity to the mega‐city Istanbul. Based on a newly compiled seismicity catalog, we identify repeating earthquakes to resolve the spatial creep variability along the MMF during a 15‐year period. We observe a maximum of seismic repeaters indicating creep along the central and western MMF segments tapering off toward the locked onshore Ganos fault in the west, and the locked offshore Princes Islands segment immediately south of Istanbul in the east. This indicates a high degree of spatial creep variability along the Istanbul‐Marmara seismic gap.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The relative motion of tectonic plates deforms these plates along their contact zone until the plate contact ruptures in an earthquake. However, some of this deformation can be released without earthquakes by so‐called aseismic creep in which the plates creep past each other. Within this creep zone, sometimes some brittle patches exist that interlock during the plate creep and rupture repeatedly in smaller earthquakes that are very similar. They are called earthquake repeaters. In the Sea of Marmara south of Istanbul lies the contact between the Eurasian and the Anatolian plates, the so‐called Main Marmara Fault (MMF). This plate contact did not rupture for a long time and thus a large magnitude event is expected here. We observe a large number of earthquake repeaters in the western offshore part of the MMF while no earthquake repeaters are found toward the east south of Istanbul or onshore toward the west. These areas seem to be locked and might accumulate deformation for a future large earthquake. The zones in between show an intermediate behavior with fewer earthquake repeaters indicating less creep. These results are important for the seismic risk and hazard assessment for the mega‐city of Istanbul.
    Description: Key Points: Earthquake repeaters along the Main Marmara Fault are identified based on a newly derived homogeneous earthquake catalog spanning 15 years. Seismic creep estimated from these repeaters is highly variable along‐strike with higher creep values along the western part. A repeating earthquake sequence showing accelerated activity after a nearby Mw 5.2 earthquake is observed.
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.2.2023.002
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/TU
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/KO
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/PZ
    Description: http://doi.org/10.7914/SN/TB
    Description: http://alomax.free.fr/nlloc/
    Description: https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/%7Efelixw/hypoDD.html
    Description: http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3407866
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gc008515
    Keywords: ddc:551.22 ; repeating earthquakes ; Marmara Sea ; fault creep ; seismic cyle ; seismic gap
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-11-16
    Description: We present SURFER, a novel reduced model for estimating the impact of CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification options on sea level rise and ocean acidification over timescales of several thousands of years. SURFER has been designed for the analysis of CO2 emission and solar radiation modification policies, for supporting the computation of optimal (CO2 emission and solar radiation modification) policies and for the study of commitment and responsibility under uncertainty. The model is based on a combination of conservation laws for the masses of atmospheric and oceanic carbon and for the oceanic temperature anomalies, and of ad-hoc parameterisations for the different sea level rise contributors: ice sheets, glaciers and ocean thermal expansion. It consists of 9 loosely coupled ordinary differential equations, is understandable, fast and easy to modify and calibrate. It reproduces the results of more sophisticated, high-dimensional earth system models on timescales up to millennia.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2023-05-16
    Description: The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: We propose a new method for estimating how much decisions under monadic uncertainty matter. The method is generic and suitable for measuring responsibility in finite horizon sequential decision processes. It fulfills “fairness” requirements and three natural conditions for responsibility measures: agency, avoidance and causal relevance. We apply the method to study how much decisions matter in a stylized greenhouse gas emissions process in which a decision maker repeatedly faces two options: start a “green” transition to a decarbonized society or further delay such a transition. We account for the fact that climate decisions are rarely implemented with certainty and that their consequences on the climate and on the global economy are uncertain. We discover that a “moral” approach towards decision making — doing the right thing even though the probability of success becomes increasingly small — is rational over a wide range of uncertainties.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2023-11-23
    Description: There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE -Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and bioEnergy- Consortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g. the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: This paper analyzes the influence of the interannual variability of climatic drought on ecological and hydrological droughts for a basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees using variables derived from observations and hydro-ecological simulation in order to determine the possible connection between meteorological, ecological and hydrological drought considering a cascading approach and encompassing different variables that give insights into water availability in the basin (e.g., soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir storages and releases). Using different climatic, ecological and hydrological standardized drought indices, we show the greater role of meteorological droughts in hydrological systems than in ecological systems, and the small influence of vegetation activity and growth in explaining the interannual variability of water resources in the basin. By contrast,hydrological droughts are strongly affected by precipitation variability with relationships characterized by seasonal differences and the role of different time-scales in the standardized drought metrics.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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