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  • 1
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text describes in detail how to simulate the poverty impacts of changes in the entitlement rules and benefit values of the Bolsa Família Program. This simulation is especially challenging due to: i) the absence of a specific question on Bolsa Família income in the PNAD household survey and, more importantly; ii) the 2.4 million family disparity between administrative records and household survey data. The first problem we solve using a typical value identification methodology for the other income variable in which lies buried the program's income. The second problem we solve by using various matching methods to make the household survey data coherent with the administrative data. In addition to describing the simulation mechanics, we simulate various changes in the Bolsa Família program and find that: i) the most cost efficient way of achieving a modest poverty reduction is to eliminate the limits on the number of child benefits per family; and ii) linear increases in benefit values lead to linear reductions in poverty, which means that the present benefit values are still far from offering decreasing returns.
    Keywords: C63 ; I38 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text investigates, for 2004 and 2009, the characteristics and living conditions of four demographic categories defined by household per capita income values. These are the extreme poor (those whose per capita incomes were less than R$ 67 in 2009), the poor (between R$ 67 and R$ 134), the vulnerable to poverty (between R$ 134 and R$ 465) and the non-poor (per capita incomes greater than R$ 465). We investigate the size of each group, its labor market insertion, demographic characteristics, educational attainment, geographical distribution, as well as various characteristics of the house they live in. We also present a classification of types of family most likely to be found in extreme poverty. Our first conclusion is that, in spite of the strong reductions in the number of poor, the relative geographical, age, racial, and educational distribution of poverty has not changed much between 2004 and 2009. Our second conclusion is that the most important changes in poverty were a result of: i) inclusive growth through the labor market; ii) real increases in the minimum wage which have all but eradicated extreme poverty and even non-extreme poverty among families counting on at least one elderly person; iii) increases in coverage and benefits of targeted cash transfers that were for many families with at least some labor income the escape route from extreme poverty and even poverty.
    Keywords: I32 ; ddc:330 ; Armut ; Haushaltseinkommen ; Brasilien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text attempts to estimate the impacts of Bolsa Família upon grade repetition using matched data from the Single Registry, the Attendance Project and the annual school censuses. Three approaches are used: i) comparison of results for poor children in the Single Registry with and without the benefit; ii) estimation of treatment effect; and iii) estimation of the impact of the percentage of beneficiary children in a given school upon the average repetition in the school. The results are far from impressive but do show a modest drop in the probability of grade repetition.
    Keywords: I24 ; I28 ; I38 ; ddc:330 ; education and inequality ; government policy ; conditional cash transfers
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: Arguments against means-tested cash transfers for the poor based upon labor supply appear both in the specialized literature and in the media. It is possible to make a microeconomic argument pointing to a reduction in labor supply on the part of beneficiaries of a targeted cash transfer. This would lead people giving up looking for a job, with long-term consequences for their human capital and social networks. This text reviews (we hope) all the studies made on this issue in Brazil since Cash Transfers have become important. The results are clear: with the exception of specific demographic groups such as women with children, either there are no labor disincentive effects at all or they are very small.
    Keywords: I38 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; conditional cash transfers ; labor supply ; labor incentives ; time allocation ; Transfereinkommen ; Arbeitsangebot ; Brasilien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: It is difficult to exaggerate the macroeconomic and political relevance of the public transfers to the private sector in the Brazilian economy. These transfers have reached 15% of GPD in the last decade. However, there are just a few papers analyzing the evolution of these transfers. Given that, this paper has three main goals. First, to show how to construct an annual series compatible with the Brazilian national accounts system (ref. 2000) over the period 1995-2012. Second, to refine and extend (up until 2012) the previous effort of Santos, Macedo e Silva and Ribeiro (2010). Finally, we provide a short analysis of the numbers estimated for the aforementioned transfers.
    Keywords: H53 ; H55 ; E01 ; ddc:330 ; Brazilian government transfers to households ; Brazilian quarterly national accounts ; Brazilian social benefits other than social transfers in kind
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This paper investigates the main determinants of grade repetition using the Brazilian school census between 2007 and 2010. For the first time such a study is conducted with all students in a panel. We begin with a brief analysis of attrition in the school census and then estimate logistic regressions for the probability of non-approval year-by-year. Variables of physical disability, repetition in the previous year and length of the school day are the most important determinants. Finally, we estimate a panel logit considering time effects.
    Keywords: I21 ; C33 ; C35 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Portuguese
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