ALBERT

Note: Contents 1 Introduction to Atmospheric Rivers / F. Martin Ralph, Michael D. Dettinger, Lawrence J. Schick, and Michael L. Anderson 2 Structure, Process, and Mechanism / Harald Sodemann, Heini Wernli, Peter Knippertz, Jason M. Cordeira, Francina Dominguez, Bin Guan, Huancui Hu, F. Martin Ralph, and Andreas Stohl 3 Observing and Detecting Atmospheric Rivers / F. Martin Ralph, Allen B. White, Gary A. Wick, Michael L. Anderson, and Jonathan J. Rutz 4 Global and Regional Perspectives / Jonathan J. Rutz, Bin Guan, Deniz Bozkurt, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Alexander Gershunov, David A. Lavers, Kelly M. Mahoney, Benjamin J. Moore, William Neff, Paul J. Neiman, F. Martin Ralph, Alexandre M. Ramos, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Maria Tsukernik, Raúl Valenzuela, Maximiliano Viale, and Heini Wernli 5 Effects of Atmospheric Rivers / Michael D. Dettinger, David A. Lavers, Gilbert P. Compo, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, William Neff, Paul J. Neiman, Alexandre M. Ramos, Jonathan J. Rutz, Maximiliano Viale, Andrew J. Wade, and Allen B. White 6 Atmospheric River Modeling: Forecasts, Climate Simulations, and Climate Projections / Duane E. Waliser and Jason M. Cordeira 7 Applications of Knowledge and Predictions of Atmospheric Rivers / Lawrence J. Schick, Michael L. Anderson, F. Martin Ralph, Michael D. Dettinger, David A. Lavers, Florian Pappenberger, David S. Richardson, and Ervin Zsoter 8 The Future of Atmospheric River Research and Applications / F. Martin Ralph, Duane E. Waliser, Michael D. Dettinger, Jonathan J. Rutz, Michael L. Anderson, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Bin Guan, and William Neff Index

Note: Contents Preface Preface to the First Edition List of figures Abbreviations 1 Historical perspective (Roland A. Madden and Paul R. Julian) 1.1 Introduction 1.2 The intraseasonal, tropospheric oscillation 1.3 The elementary 4-D structure 1.4 Other early studies of the oscillation 1.5 The oscillation in 1979 1.6 Complexity of cloud movement and structure 1.7 Seasonal variations in the oscillation 1.8 The oscillation in the zonal average 1.9 Other effects of the oscillation 1.10 Summary 1.11 References 2 South Asian monsoon (B. N. Goswami) 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 South Asian summer monsoon and active/break cycles 2.1.2 Amplitude and temporal and spatial scales 2.1.3 Regional propagation characteristics 2.1.4 Relationship between poleward-propagating ISOs and monsoon onset 2.1.5 Relationship with the MJO 2.2 Mechanism for temporal-scale selection and propagation 2.2.1 30 to 60-day mode 2.2.2 10 to 20-day mode 2.3 Air-sea interactions 2.4 Clustering of synoptic events by ISOs 2.5 Monsoon ISOs and predictability of the seasonal mean 2.6 Aerosols and monsoon ISOs 2.7 Predictability and prediction of monsoon ISOs 2.8 Summary and discussion 2.9 Acknowledgments 2.10 Appendix 2.11 References 3 Intraseasonal variability of the atmosphere-ocean-climate system: East Asian monsoon (Huang-Hsiung Hsu) 3.1 Introduction 3.2 General characteristics of EA/WNP monsoon flow 3.3 Periodicity, seasonality, and regionality 3.4 Intraseasonal oscillation propagation tendency 3.5 Relationship with monsoon onsets and breaks 3.6 The 10 to 30-day and 30 to 60-day boreal summer ISO 3.6.1 The 30 to 60-day northward/northwestward-propagating pattern 3.6.2 The 10 to 30-day westward-propagating pattern 3.7 Relationship with tropical cyclone activity 3.8 Upscale effect of TC and synoptic systems 3.9 Final remarks 3.9.1 Close association with the EA/WNP monsoon 3.9.2 The CISO vs. interannual variability 3.9.3 Multiperiodicities and multiscale interaction 3.9.4 Others 3.10 References 4 Pan America (Kingtse C. Mo, Charles Jones, and Julia Nogues Paegle) 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Variations in the IS band 4.3 IS variability in December-March 4.3.1 EOF modes 4.3.2 The Madden Julian Oscillation 4.3.3 The submonthly oscillation 4.4 IS variability in June-September 4.4.1 EOF modes 4.4.2 Madden-Julian Oscillation 4.4.3 Submonthly oscillation 4.5 Intraseasonal modulation of hurricanes 4.6 Summary 4.7 References 5 Australasian monsoon (M. C. Wheeler and J. L. McBride) 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Seasonal cycle of background flow 5.3 Broadband intraseasonal behavior: Bursts and breaks 5.4 Broadband intraseasonal behavior: Spectral analysis 5.5 Meteorology of the bursts and breaks 5.6 Characteristics and influence of the MJO 5.7 1983/1984 and 1987/1988 case studies 5.8 MJO influence on monsoon onset 5.9 Other modes and sources of ISV 5.10 Modulation of tropical cyclones 5.11 Extratropical-tropical interaction 5.12 Prediction 5.13 Conclusions 5.14 References 6 The oceans (William S. Kessler) 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Heat fluxes 6.2.1 Salinity and the barrier layer 6.2.2 A 1-D heat balance? 6.2.3 The role of advection 6.3 Vertical structure under westerly winds 6.4 Remote signatures of wind-forced Kelvin waves 6.5 El Nino and rectification of ISV 6.6 ISV in the Indian Ocean 6.6.1 Differences between the Indian and Pacific Ocean warm pools and their consequences 6.6.2 Oscillations lasting about 60 days in the western equatorial Indian Ocean 6.6.3 Recent models of wind-forced ISV in the Indian Ocean 6.7 Other intrinsic oceanic ISV 6.7.1 Global ISV 6.7.2 Non-TISO-forced ISV in the tropical Indo-Pacific 6.7.3 ISV outside the equatorial Indo-Pacific 6.8 Conclusion 6.9 References 7 Air-sea interaction (Harry Hendori) 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Air-sea fluxes for the eastward MJO 7.3 Air-sea fluxes associated with northward propagation in the Indian summer monsoon 7.4 SST variability 7.5 Mechanisms of SST variability 7.6 SST-atmosphere feedback 7.7 Impact of slow SST variations on MJO activity 7.8 Concluding remarks 7.9 Acknowledgments 7.10 References 8 Mass, momentum, and geodynamics (Benjamin F. Chao and David A. Salstein) 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Angular momentum variations and Earth rotation 8.2.1 Length-of-day variation and axial angular momentum 8.2.2 Polar motion excitation and equatorial angular momentum 8.2.3 Angular momentum and torques 8.3 Time-variable gravity 8.4 Geocenter motion 8.5 Conclusions 8.6 Acknowledgments 8.7 References 9 El Nino Southern Oscillation connection (William K. M. Lau) 9.1 Introduction 9.2 A historical perspective 9.3 Phase 1: The embryonic stage 9.3.1 OLR time-longitude sections 9.3.2 Seasonality 9.3.3 Supercloud clusters 9.3.4 Early modeling framework 9.4 Phase 2: The exploratory stage 9.4.1 MJO and ENSO interactions 9.4.2 WWEs 9.5 Phase 3: ENSO case studies 9.5.1 El Nino of 1997/1998 9.5.2 Stochastic forcings 9.6 Phase-4: Recent development 9.6.1 A new ISO index 9.6.2 Composite events 9.6.3 The ISV-ENSO biennial rhythm 9.7 TISV and predictability 9.8 Acknowledgments 9.9 References 10 Theories (Bin Wang) 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Review of ISO theories 10.2.1 Wave CISK 10.2.2 Wind-evaporation feedback or WISHE 10.2.3 Frictional convergence instability (FCI) 10.2.4 Cloud-radiation feedback 10.2.5 Convection-water vapor feedback and the moisture mode 10.2.6 Multiscale interaction theory 10.2.7 Mechanisms of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation 10.2.8 Atmosphere-ocean interaction 10.3 A general theoretical framework 10.3.1 Fundamental physical processes 10.3.2 Governing equations 10.3.3 Boundary layer dynamics near the equator 10.3.4 The 1.5-layer model for the MJO 10.3.5 The 2.5-layer model including the effects of basic flows 10.4 Dynamics of the MJO 10.4.1 Low-frequency equatorial waves and the associated Ekman pumping 10.4.2 Frictional convergence instability (FCI) 10.4.3 FCI mode under nonlinear heating 10.4.4 The role of multiscale interaction (MSI) in MJO dynamics 10.5 Dynamics of boreal summer ISO 10.5.1 Effects of mean flows on the ISO 10.5.2 Mechanism of northward propagation 10.6 Role played by atmospheric-ocean interaction 10.7 Summary and discussion 10.7.1 Understanding gained from the FCI theory 10.7.2 Model limitations 10.7.3 Outstanding issues 10.8 Acknowledgments 10.9 References 11 Modeling intraseasonal variability (K. R. Sperber, J. M. Slingo, and P. M. Inness) 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Modeling the MJO in boreal winter 11.2.1 Interannual and decadal variability of the MJO 11.2.2 Sensitivity to formulation of the atmospheric model 11.2.3 Modeling the MJO as a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon 11.3 Boreal summer intraseasonal variability 11.3.1 GCM simulations 11.3.2 Air-sea interaction and boreal summer intraseasonal variability 11.3.3 Modeling studies of the links between boreal summer intraseasonal and interannual variability 11.4 The impact of vertical resolution in the upper ocean 11.5 Concluding remarks 11.6 Acknowledgments 11.7 References 12 Predictability and forecasting (Duane Waliser) 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Empirical models 12.3 Dynamical forecast models 12.4 Predictability 12.5 Real time forecasts 12.6 Discussion 12.7 Appendix 12.8 Acknowledgments 12.9 References 13 Africa and West Asia (Mathew Barlow) 13.1 Overview 13.2 Summary of Africa research 13.2.1 West Africa 13.2.2 Eastern Africa 13.2.3 Southern Africa 13.3 Summary of West Asia research 13.4 Station data analysis 13.4.1 Methodology and data 13.4.2 Nairobi 13.4.3 Riyadh 13.5 Relevance of Gill-Matsuno dynamics and the role of mean wind 13.6 Summary and discussion 13.7 References 14 Tropical-extratropical interactions (Paul E. Roundy) 14.1 Introduction 14.2 A boreal winter composite of the global flow associated with the MJO 14.3 Response of the global atmosphere to heating in tropical convection 14.4 Influence of extratropical waves on tropical convection 14.5 Two-way interactions between the tropics and extratropics 14.6 MJO inf